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I would be very surprised if this is being shorted in that classic sense. Its mainly private individuals who are shorting using spread bets and CFD's. They have been relying on YA placements T10 forward sales to make this little game work over the past few years. With YA blunted the fox has been shot and the game should now be over. It is time for them to go elsewhere and I'll repeat my previous request for them to do just that as they have done well and exit to let the long term holders see some returns.

If they were shorting using CFD as I suspect they may have had to go long to cover so its not impossible that they can be both long and short at the same time and in time close both! I doubt they will be losing much money unless they have shorted and failed to close quickly or cover. I know we have debated in the past whether
leveraged CFD and spreads generate actual physical share price movements - I have my doubts on that.

Pecten T39 zone 19 has now been accurately measured and is twice the size that was measured when same zone was drilled in Niko. I think there was commentary around this in either the CPR or one of the placing/admission documents. Might dig it out later.

When they went deep at Niko they were having problems from the start and I don't think they ever properly finshed the deeper zones and they just open hole flowed it before sediment clogged it all up. They have not been back that deep since then. From memory the % recovery from zone 19 was originally a bit less than the eldari a zones but the economics of the zone should now be transformed with the latest findings. Of course this is not really new news as it was in the results RNS from T39 drilling!

Bridget the company have been looking at EBRD and or other funding for at least a year. Some of those instruments can have an equity element. Off the back of the right deal funds can be easily released. But not many lenders will lend simply to fund general expenses hence why the short term cash is important.

If that was what had happened then there should have been a virtual immediate holding RNS or Director dealing/related party transaction RNS. So doubt that is the case. I'd personally refrain from speculating on Hope/Outrider and leave it to the company - they will RNS when they have completed their actions!

Shipped by train to batumi and sold to BP like it has always been......

I'll reiterate my view that our oil is not being auctioned! The PSA specifically mentions the right to sell it into I ternational markets and that is what I have been told happens tomorrow oil several times by the company. We sell to international majors via Batumi. I'm more convinced than before that the auctions are oil from the other blocks GOGC get 60% cut on some of the concessions.

Working capital will remain tight. People need to read the accounts at half year they had run up an additional $9m of short term liabilities on top of the millions they already had and with $500k in the bank. So even with oil sales on good flows the short term finances will be tight.

From here the main reason I think shares will be issued would be for:
1. Vendors who deferred in 2017 may have done so on the understanding they would get shares in time for the deal. The original restructure of which we have 2bn share headroom left envisaged paying $5m to vendors but not immediately. It seemed to be deferred till after YA conversion.
2. General working capital pending a deal. Comment above referenced the short term finances apply.
3. Maybe rather than hedge fund getting share of Niko it would complicate a deal so FRR need to fund part of it.

Having said that I don't envisaged any sort of primary bid type offer. And ensuring you have adequate cash is not necessarily bad if the business need it due to extra costs.

I would never rule out using the equity but if they did given our alignment with the board it would be done carefully. To counter that inspite of the tight finances the company have not raised since Feb 2018 apart from the agreement on Niko which was a profit share on a well not equity.

I'm inclined to think we are getting just enough oil sold to tick over the accounts but if it required I would suspect a preagreed transaction involving the short term liabilities above other possibilities. The daily 15m seller is a puzzle and does look to me trying to achieve some sort of average price could be a vwap or just where their average price happens to be at.

I concur with AJames and Niko will go deep to target the deep zones below zone 19. If zone 19 is flowing well then zone 25 looks as good or better from the sizing on the well logs for taribani.

Bugsy the offshore ex anadarko license is vacant. They had a consortium looking at that including BP but it never took off. The western blocks have never really produced much but it is where that Jurassic play is on the presentation I put up last night. Block energy should be pleased!

So we now have Schlumberger in the East and exonn in the west of our block. In an area the shorters would like us to believe is a hydro carbon desert.

To the south BP start working the onshore Azeri assets. We are surrounded by big players looking at the basin.

And what a great calm the nerves BRR podcast.

Blue what I will say is that I don't know for sure but I can't see it as vendor shares. It increasingly looks like some sort of trading pattern to hold the price around here. If it is vendors it would be to convert a % using a vwap of shares not yet issued. Maybe the 2bn headroom gets issued just before a deal to clear vendor debt and let them benefit? If it was aimed at knocking the price you would do more volume.

Toatie that is because the study area is the blocks above ours that they are looking to generate interest and looking at the presentation possibly funding.

The general information is all relevant to FRR however.

Zib your question on the zones.

The oil zones eldari i a zones 9, 13, 14, 15 and eldari b zone 19 and 25 sit on top of the gareji gas sequence zones a to f and below pretty much across the block. The gareji has been uplifted to the top end of block 12 which is why it is so accessible at 2500m at zone f in udabano. You would think the same lift has created the traps for the hydrocarbons migrating from the kitchen in block 12. If you visit block 12 you can see the eldari a zones above ground level such is the force to the west of taribani.

The presentation I posted last night is a great read if you like geology. When you look at it it is clear you have North Caucasus fields similar to basin edge, Azeri fields to the south and yet you have the same source rock in Georgia get the industry is less developed.

The presentation confirms the likely size of asses Frontera have previously claimed is under Georgia hence the study that GOG are trying to complete. The reason for a potential arbitration to try to get us to relinquish part of the kitchen becomes obvious once you read the presentation. Equally it's obvious why Frontera will not want to give up any f the block when it's obvious it's highly likely that the whole lot is prospective as per the presentation.

Pecten - one of the best reads I've seen this year is in:

http://georgiaoilandgas.ge/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GOG-Exploration-Program-2018-2022.pdf

That tells you most what you want to know about the formation of the Kura and is basically an endorsement of Steve N comments from 2015/16 about the size of the field and its relationship to The Azeri and North Caucasas fields.

I think when you read that its easy to see why majors would be interested.

Not so sure why would they sell nowxrather than hold!

The Georgian gas law does indeed prefer local suppliers where they are available. The first tranche was uniserve and the craft car people in 2016. They sold in short order with a huge final trade in Jan 217. They have had no share since.

Mid 2017 the small vendors seemed to be grouped together and sold via a local broker. Pretty sure they were all sold in 2017 they got them very cheap director ya and sold into the rise in September.

My been any vendor shares since but of the vendor balances from 2017 over $5m of the large suppliers we are wZiting for a conversion originally price into the restructure at .0045p. So if they are converting then seems a bit odd how they are selling shares not yet granted! Could possibly be a rump from 2016 being sold but not so sure.

They seem to be selling a .0038p. Could be the placing partner from 2017 they got shares at .0010p or even the hedge from Feb as they had a 6 month lock-in be expired. They could be selling as part of a transfer to someone. It feels more like someone is looking for a vwap to me around this price.

There are a few reasons for that. Whoever it is they are following a plan.

Brmg69 do some research on what they did at Madagascar. What happened there was that they worked with the board to restructure their debt into equity as part of a recapitalisation that wiped out existing equity. The only thing that stands in the way if that here is that Steve and Zaza have already made the choice to stand with shareholders by converting their debt. They may have thought they could force such an event off the back of the YA incident or indeed try and grab the whole company but I suspect given Steve's contacts in the industry likely a part in what is going on here that would be a risky strategy if they intended to sell out to GOGC or MND as opposed to a major!

They are totally not to be trusted but my feeling here is that they have overplayed their hand if their case was solely based on YA rather than some other factors.

It's hard to imagine what possible case outrider could muster at the moment hence why the injunction was served and granted quickly.

You are correct that FRR tone was one of trying to work through the "misunderstanding" in a matter of fact way with YA.

Outrider have already potentially done very well here and having elected not to take any equity risk unlike Steve and Zaza who went the extra mile with their discounted conversion to progress the company.

I think they were hoping to get an equity position by sabre rattling but for all their past faults I do think Zaza has a pretty simple view of who should be rewarded for taking risk in backing the company.

YA are a nuisance to be managed away but Outrider have a track record of predatory behaviour both here and at Madagascar oil so I think they would like them off the board and back in their box till their notes expire in 2020. The deal in 2016 was just the latest round in the game of corporate chess they have been playing since 2014. In 2016 it was in neither side issue to press the matter as they both would have lost everything. 2018 with a potential deal has changed the dynamic again. As of now who holds the winning hand? I would say Outrider are looking weak.

Mix of Dallas and wall Street here.

Fulham I think this share has seen some crazy manipulation. We have whip sawed in some quite large moves first down as a result of heavey selling driven by ya and a shorting campaign in the mistaken believe a placing was coming via YA. That created a range between . 0045 to .0021 wth the two determined phasses from .0045 to .0032 then to .0021.

This wild movement has helped traders and it is entirely possible that people who have shorted have also taken long positions at times to cover. If they did not then I would be surprised.

So i do think it is possible we have some trading strategy here to average out the mess caused and mm net accumulating shares.

YA actions have caused a proper mess and almost certainly stopped FRR reaching escape velocity on 3rd September!

Dave I think we are beyond the wanting to attract new pi investors to move the share price by managing news flow. That has been the case since Feb.

With any luck we are moving to a different model. Further funds if raised are more likely from institutions and they don't care about the day to day minutiae.

Pyro there are very few candidates who can sell 15m a day for weeks on end!

I think we can discount the board. So that probably leaves YA and the hedge fund that bought in Feb. It's even probably too big for the placing n August 2017. Too low for primary bid overhang. No vendors in play at the moment.

Could the hedge have lent them out? Or could the same shares be cycling around on a narrow margin in some sort of organised trading pattern possibly to get a vwap price.

If they were trying to decimate the share price they would have to increase the volume a fair bit. I still think what happened in August and early September must have caused axlotbof trouble for someone to replace the non delivered shares. We have had plenty of monkey business with CFD shorts. But even they will need to close out if the share price holds and starts to move up.

They are interesting and my gut feeling remains that it is related to YA and the MM unwinding the mess caused by their naked short. Even though it would only have been 200m odd shares.

Mr Crab nothing would give me greater pleasure than to spend time with some of the really fine people we have on this odessey. My brother lives at Sand Hutton just the other side of York so I do head your way every now and then.

Been a really good week as the dog paused on the car chase and savaged some unfortunates who were trying to slow him down. The chase resumes next week. Week closer. Still plenty of risk in this game and it's not a good idea to get too cocky. Something still acting as an anchor at the moment but that will have to give at some point as you can only sell once.

Yes - I get that but we have Weatherford and Baker Hughes as our big service providers so would they not have first dibs at technology and deals. Remember the directional drillers we used were also all ex same service companies.

JS - I have had the same thoughts in the past as whoever the vendor we ran up costs with in 2016/2017 was surprisingly given the sub optimal finances that FRR have happy to carry the debts forward while others like YA took the biscuit. The debt had to belong to a pretty substantial party for them to agree to carry it like that for over 12 months and the probability is that would be a service provider. Could be one of only a few - Baker Hughes and Weatherford are our declared service providers other than Uniserve. So I don't know how close Schlumberger are to the other service providers but the Weatherford/ Baker Hughes combo seem the more likely candidates for any carried debt but that does not preclude Schlumberger who have drilled their gas well in H1 in the adjacent block coming in as a contender for a deal either in Mtsare or possibly one of the other parts of block 12 that borders their own license. Whilst its two on the table at the moment the arrival of a third can not be discounted. That would be particularly true if the arbitration really is all about the part of the block towards Basin Edge.

Interestingly as an aside while researching the PSA I noticed that the Georgian oil and gas law has a provision around engaging local services built in. So Uniserve participation in FRR work is as much a license requirement as anything to do with cost.

Its like the screw tape letters at the moment.