Member Info for Moleinahole

Free - its always possible but would have been easy to sort out. Whatever precipitated it I think Frontera will finish it and hope they don't get more shares from us as the relationship has clearly now totally broken down.

Pyro ok your referring to YA liquidating their preference shares not YA trying to liquidate FRR.
Yep virtually zero chance based on my knowledge of the balance sheet and current debt to revenue of FRR being liquidated.

YA have cooked their goose but i wish someone would iliquidate the short sellers once and for all!

I'm not sure how the CFD and spread providers run their books viz a viz real actual shares. I have heard people say that they buy the underlying shares to mirror the trades which would make some sense to keep the derivative market with some limiting the real shares but I'm not so sure that they wouldn't run the book with a net position of short and long positions and hedge themselves at this times.

YA I don't think normally short. My experience of them is that they forward sell within credit terms so evening they know they will get within those terms. So we have seen in the past usually on a t10 basis presells. These preference shares are however a little different and post June 2018 we have the question of who can elect to make the conversion to cash or equity. Interestingly post June 2018 we do not know the base price or any terms around price as the RNS was silent on the matter and only focussed on the cash element of the transaction.

As I said earlier I think the up and down of the shares at volume will have created a number of market dynamics here it just YA and the shorters. The 3rd sept RNS has drawn in momentum traders and we will have some spiked new investors and some who joined on the push down. Also do not assume that those who short always short they can also go long to make on the return with the hope of trying the ride again.We are still in the T20 window from that date up to 1st Oct.

So it will take a few days to unwind just in time for the next news we hope.

Pyro liquidation ain't going to happen! YA are not the only hedge fund invested here - Outrider and one other investing in Niko and an institution who invested $1.5m in Feb.

Alot depends on the motivation for last weeks spat. But yes you get loans or investment based on the lender seeing potential to be repaid or profit. Post results this week he board come out of a closed period and may be they could participate. That has to be a possibility of a plan announced with the results

Equally they could do a primary bid type kick out YA placing post some positive news. That would unfortunately allow some of the shorters to close as well.

All comes down to the flow rates. If they have been good over the summer they should be starting to accumulate cash in the bank now. We should get the cash position pretty much just before the stronger flows in july/august this week. From there we should be able to assess how much cash was needed to service the general admin deficit and model how much free cash we could be generating. The results will show the bond holders accruing ever larger interest payments paid in increasing bond IOU's still.

So you may not even need much additional cash if flow rates have held up to rustle up $2.6m.

Zeps. At the moment there are two things going on.

1. A program of operational work in Georgia which is ongoing but must be close to results feeding into JV discussions with mayors.....majors....

2. The day to day share price.

Sadly the share price is being effected by the actions of our former lender and opportunist shorters who make their living premised on companies with SEDA's will tend to fall if you know when the SEDA lender is executing transactions.

Whilst there could be some connections between the two I don't believe that to be the case. Equally I don't think YA will have any inside information on what is going on in block 12 now.

I'm going into the meeting 4th Oct with no specific expectations but hopeful for more information to inform my understanding of what is going on in both the operational and corporate side.

We do need YA out of the way as that will starve the shorters of the oxygen they need to make their model work. My preference would be for that to be done with cash from the oil sales (ever more profitable as the oil price rises) and then the jv takes care of the next round of development expenditure.

Do we have enough cash in the bank to do that? We did not in June - but by now we should have been paid for May, June and July production into a rising oil price. That would be the biggest lead indicator that all is well in Block 12 paying YA off and sending them packing and if Zaza announced just that on 4th Oct I think everyone would be very happy with that.

The bid has dropped 6% now on a 15m sell - 0.1% of the issued shares. That is ridiculous and shows you how few shares you need to manipulate the price in low volume on AIM.

Yes been watching this morning as I said earlier. The MM were working away this morning with the wide spread and small push ups on the offer to entice some buyers to cover these sells this morning was an indication they probably had something to sell. The rise was stopped by a series of quick fire sales of the 2m but they held the bid at 0.336 until that larger sell went through then dropped the bid to 0.31/0.32 as it was processed.

You are looking for someone who bought in reasonable volume at under this 0.32 to 0.33 price. There are some PI's who could but tend to think not. Looks to me like you can trade but only if the MM make a reasonable markup as they and the seller can control the book quite easily in this low volume at the moment.

Still tend to think the book is in a mess and still sorting itself out. The key will be to FRR not issuing any shares to anyone.

Indeed having a quiet morning watching the trading.

My thinking is that if you can't open new shorts and the old ones were force closed then it would be dangerous to short from here. YA aren't getting any shares and I still don't think the company need to do a placing.

Therefore the downward pressure is relieved pending news. The thin trading with wide spread shows the MM are back to what they were doing and seem to be back in a cautious posture hence the wider spread. There will be T20 and other leveraged trades still out but alot of leveraged trades will have been closed in last weeks volatility and many on or around 3rd sept.

Yes we now have the MM back to their 3.75% spread. I think the book is likely still in a bit of a mess so they need a few days around this level to sort it out. It paused at this level on the way up for no obvious reason so this might be around the average price for the MM including the YA shares.

Can I ask if anyone has a CFD account whether Is is possible to open short CFD or go short on spreads like IG at the moment?

Prod as of tonight I have made more money from my whiskey collection than large investment in FRR!

My bottles of 40year old from my birth year are now worth £900 a bottle and rising and I only paid £100 for them! Some of the ardbeg and campeltown malts I have boxed up you can auction for silly prices.

If I'd invested in whiskey over the same period I've been here - I'd a multimillionaire now. Alarming but true!

ODR eventually one meeting will be held after some good news! Whether it's this one or the AGM or another meeting only time will tell.

But I always welcome the opportunity to meet the company, our PR reps and the nomad and more importantly often to actually meet and talk to the people behind the handles on the BB.

I learn plenty from these meetings. I'm thankful that we get them as we worked hard over several years to get them at all!

JS - on this particular subject I know we agree.

The only mitigation I see when looking at this is the forced default as a result of the Azeri schenanigans on the EBRD loan. That will have closed doors. They have tried jv a couple of times in the past but they didn't work out either.

But by not having a CPR with Proven reserves that must have closed the RBL route and probably other funding. Once the previous institutional funds backed away post 2008 crash options have been thin. So I know why we have ended up where we are. But from here they simply must land either a jv partner or update the CPR to obtain funding at closer to market rates.

Not updating the CPR has always been a puzzle. Maybe we needed to prove the things we are doing in the current campaign to fulfill some of the conditions NSA laid out to take the CPR forward.

Dulwich you did not give the wrong impression at all and as you should know not having a go at you (ps last Friday monthly malt session was exceptional by the way!). I'll let other judge whether you look like a Samaritan but I know you are a decent bloke like very many investors here!

In the past I would have probably been more accepting of YA. But for me lines have been crossed particularly this week.

Dulwich do not make the mistake of thinking YA have done us any favours.

If you look at the RNS one year after the $31m SEDA was agreed Steve noted that the SEDA was not working as he envisaged. Rather than funding operations it was hammering the shareprice meaning we could not fund the operations we wanted without massively diluting the shareholders. The failure of the SEDA to do what was intended is manifestly obvious. Between 2012 and 2016 it resulted in insufficient investment in operations. That cycle was only broken in 2017 by going direct to shareholders with Primary Bid and cutting them out to raise funds to invest in the 2018 campaign. The other contributory factors political and macroeconomic are well documented here.

The way the SEDA works is such that YA take no risk. It relies in the main on shareholders to carry the burden while they cream off guaranteed profit. They take little or no risk.

If they have now aligned themselves with the prophets of gloom and doom shows them up for what they really are. The sooner they leave the better. The more I look at what they have done to Frontera the less I'm inclined to give them any credit for "helping" the company through the hard times. The real good Samaritans are the shareholders and board who dug deep time and time again to pay the loan shark! As for the shorters and others they are llike bandits and thieves that have accosted the company on its journey through a hostile and difficult terrain.

My wish is that the company continues to regain strength and is able to repay the shareholders and board who helped through the difficult times. I have other wishes for the loan sharks and thieves.

My money is on Schlumberger. They have been quiet as to what they have been up to but they inherited producing wells and wont have been idle. They are well placed to work some of them over and get more out of them.

As I posted the other day Schlumberger had a good insight from working on our wells and doing some of the reservoir modelling. I do wonder if they carried on don't work and are one of the service providers who agreed to carry their debt.

Duster you would only get a proper short squeeze if firstly people stopped selling and second we had not had some high volume days around 3rd Sept to enable them to get out followed by nearly 2 weeks when the issue was unknown. The volume of shares in question would have been churned over easily in this period. Combined with the likely price they sold at they were already in profit to close.

If there has been a squeeze it has been on CFD and spread longs/shorts as the price has swung wildly due to the instability it has created in the market. That has allowed traders to profit so far.

As a long holder I'm still of the believe our day will come.

Free just say your coming. Tom winifroth was down last time and didn't turn up!

Your main issue is transport if you travel like me.

Dulwich used to it I'm a FRR shareholder!

Yes the book is pretty even today and no sign of any unusual larger trades yet. At the same time the noisy posting stops once again and you can actually discuss the issues and points of interest. Interesting isn't it.

I'm booked for the meeting and looks like I will now be coming from Ipswich having come down via London early in the morning on other business. Looking forward to meeting the usual suspects again to see whose hair has fallen out and whose has gone white!

Better without but as it's a profit share on a single well it would not be a deal breaker as beyond the economic interest they have no real involvement.

Timster nice idea but I think the other risk of horizontal might be a higher chance of sediment. Would be nice to see them go down to zone 25 though!

Pyro there are two issues here that like you have done tend to merge.

As I posted on the morning of the first RNS the two could be related but do not need to be. There is simply insufficient information to come to a conclusive answer.

As I posted this morning the communications lockdown since April lifted by what was perceived by many to be bad news at UD2 has just amplified the noise and cynicism.

Equally as I have posted previously the August payment was always the most likely ones to be in shares.

It's entirely possible for Frontera to be flowing and selling train loads each month and still have this dispute if the heart of the problem was the price of the August conversion. If they are then this will end with FRR paying the $2.6m in cash and walking away having shown up YA for what they really are. That is a distinct possibility. If they are not the cash will have to come from somewhere/someone else or they just effectively stonewall YA. If they then try to enforce it in court then as with outrider Frontera will just counter claim and it will ultimately settle in a mediation. However, I doubt it would get that far if we have other hedge funds who would happily take the shares rather than give them to YA.

I think the crash down to 0.0022p just in time for the payment is a factor. They might have got away with a higher conversion price but I don't think they should be allowed to benefit from the effects of shorting.

I do have to say that I think there are people who post on this board who traded during that period who have directly contributed to this problem.

I still strongly suspect the dispute started from the shorting to push the price down and has since escalated. The 2 week delay in the RNS leads me to believe Frontera were trying to sort it out quitetly but relations with YA have broken down.

Good flow rates announced into the market will resolve this one way or the other. They have to be out there by the Oct meet probably with the accounts. Bad flow rates and the future campaigns will struggle to be funded and options become narrower. As I said it's a coin toss and YA have already called their side. The quicker they are removed from the board here the better.