Member Info for Moleinahole

First quite simply you don't know whether that was a buy or a sell. I've been here long enough watching YA selling shares and watching how MM frustrate - often to collect and gather a net position.

Don't forget YA would have sold shares between the short opening at .0032 and .0021 and probably sold some into the rise to 0.0045. Someone has had to sort that mess out now the shares have not arrived and that may not have been a quick fix. They might have had to borrow some more to do that!

I don't doubt this little episode has caused plenty of trouble for whoever brokered those shares.

Blue I wouldn't assume anything.

We know that YA have not got any shares as a result of the shorting assault that occurred in August and September. That quite disgraceful period was accompanied by some truly awful posting on here and not just by trolls I have to say that simply amplified the effect. I suppose I should thank some of you as it has enabled me to build to my long term holding at below my average. But others were shaken out of their shares.

The 15m to me have all the hallmarks of YA having to buy back combined with some opportunism by traders and shorters. I simply can't see why vendors would be selling now and if it was vendors where have the shares come from as none have been issued for a long time? A more organised transfer maybe from someone who accumulated lower (e.g. the 2017 placings) possibly.

With YA confirmed as cash only - that does mean the headroom could now be used if sold post news and placed at a higher price to make a material dent in the vendor debt or other current liabilities. That to me is important as having the ability to tap equity finance as a last resort enables questions of going concern to be silenced while they close out.

Todays RNs has put a spring in my step today going into the weekend. Every time the red RNS light went on recently I opened it to read with a mix of wonder and dread. From here hopefully we can look forward to a bit of excitement as to what the next RNS might contain. Shorters and negativeers can worry instead.

Well to any who still doubt the companies resolve to see this through you have your answer.

Over the past few weeks in the face of news that would torpedo most aim companies with the prophets for gloom looking deep into their cauldron to summon up spells of hate and despair the actual shareholders pretty much stood firm. That must have been a surprise. I think the companies improved willingness to engage has played a part song with the shares now pretty much in the hands of battle scared veterans.

So it looks like YA have been allowed to keep their margin they made on these illegal trades and the mm have helped them close probably these 15m trades. The restructure is good for Frontera as we are cash poor assert rich with extra costs for this final push. I think FRR have got what they wanted reduced payment, a moral victory and the share price protected. A good result without pushing it too far!

The outrider issue should resolve itself but we shall be see.

The non arbitration is linked to the choreography around the deals I feel.

A good day to be an FRR holder and further evidence that shareholders are aligned to our board and should back the board in the difficult job they have currently doing.

I fervently wish those who are attempting to undermine this company please stop and give them the chance to finish what has been started.

Lash the improved parameters (such as flows and porosity and conventional in Eldari B) for taribani were pretty much known after the drilling by Frontera - you can see it in the RNS yourself. So saying they can see the same numbers makes perfect sense to me.

ZIB I posted that the other week - they seem to be working with GOGC as they popped up when I was looking for something else!

Mad - Coggy is fine don't worry.

What your quest has interested me in is now who is producing the balance of 27,000T to 29,000Tof oil! There are only 5 producing license holders - maybe Block energy and Schlumberger and Georgia Oil must be that larger balance?

When we were in Georgia and talking about the industry several of the old fields were over produced and hence the declining volumes. It does make you wonder why more has not come out of taribani

I will do a bit of research tonight around other companies and their PSA and will out of interest have a close look at the GOGC annual accounts.

Mad. Indeed and I have never heard of our oil being sold via auction by GOGC hence why I'm cautious in what you are trying to do. It may be or may not. Doesn't change things for me.

You are trying to derive a current production number by an alternative means as a proxy and I get that. All I'll say is that from the available evidence I don't think you can reliably do that because there are several moving parts here where they are not constants and you do not know the current parameters.

Having been at the last meeting the company were not willing to provide a flow other than saying there has been no material change and the 1000 bopd at year end projection included Niko. So that's where we are at. The company have plenty on their hands at the moment and this would be low down on my list of things at the moment to ask about!

Madpunter I've had a look at your numbers over my lunch as I'm a bit busy!

First observation is on the GOGC production numbers for 2017. Assuming the PSA's are much of a muchness then the total production of 32,000T split by contractor and GOGC means that blocks where the PSA is sharing profit oil must be 29,000T. That would leave blocks like FRR that are not sharing profit with 3,000T (or about 70 bopd) in 2017. That would not surprise me as we do not know the split between gas and oil in our sales. We may have been selling a lot more gas in 2017. But the numbers look very basic and to conclude finally I'd want to cross check back to the GOGC accounts for 2017 and 2018 on the site where you should be able to find the GOGC share.

You quote the 2 train loads in 2017 that would be 14,000T and would equate pretty much to the GOGC profit oil in 2017.

2018 we have no production numbers but you have listed 4 auctions of 31,000T. First comment would be that the actions and production need not correlate - they may have been storing oil extracted during low oil price to sell into a rising oil price hence the sudden increase in actions may be to do with the rising oil price not production.

Without total 2018 production numbers across the piece I don't think you can draw any conclusions. But given the 2017 number for FRR is known within the 3000 to 5000t - someone else was producing 27,000t to 29,000T!

So as I say its an interesting discussion but I don't think you can conclude that the auction is not just profit oil.

Rainbow look it up on Google. It's a song and a boy chasing a dream girl his dad thinks he will never be able to catch......

The major will not be unaware of how testing will be impacting revenue. A simple look at the company accounts tells you that. Any deal I think has to involve an injection of some cash into Frontera to at the very least clear out the short term liabilities we are running up with this longer campaign.

As I say I'm inclined to think revenue was slow to start with but has now built up especially if T39 is being allowed to flow rather than shut it in for pressure build up tests. T39 with more gas would have had to wait on the separator equipment as well anyway.

Niko delay can of course be read a few ways hopefully it will be the first with a new partner on board going right down into zone 25.

Mad as I say I admire your enthusiasm.

If you look at GOGC half year accounts note a it explains that GOGC sell the state share of profit oil from PSA. That's why I think that oil is state share. Without knowing what is being produced in the other blocks which are active you just can't be sure of what other blocks are producing.

To reiterate I'm not fussed either way as I do think we are pumping more oil and shipping by train to Batumi and at this stage have no reason to doubt we are in the 400 to 650 bopd range which is the break even for operations. However, if you read the half year accounts the company have run up some large costs which are not split out and could be vendor, interest or exec salary. So they do need to pump more hence the delay on Niko does actually matter. So it would be good if finalisation of arrangements was sooner rather than later.

It all comes down to whether you believe the golden age is ahead and whether you believe a dog can catch a car.

Mad where do you get 220bopd? 2017 Frontera would be doing 120 to 140 bopde including gas from Mtsare. So maybe 100 to 110bopd max.

I know your trying hard but Frontera historically just have never produced much. If Zaza says 1000bopd for year end relied on Niko then I would guess we are currently at maybe 500 to 600 bopd. Even that would be a marked improvement as we need 500 bopd to cover costs.

From what I know of the company in the past the auctions have been of nimotminda and samgori oil and we know they ship FRR direct to Batumi. You also speculated at the weekend that the new oil was separated on route. I'm not so sure as they have just invested in equipment to separate on site which probably has delayed production at T39.

To me it doesn't really matter as I'm inclined to believe the 3 wells are capable of stable flows cable of delivering 500 to ,600 bopd flows in total. You need to remember that the 3 wells worked in 2018 were also producing a reasonable % of the 2017 production.

Personally I'd ease off the linking of parties and making comment along many of the lines of thought I've seen on the board today. One of two of the comments I think people should reflect on whether they are sensible to post as alot is pretty speculative.

I'm no fan of YA, Outrider or the prophets of gloom but I'd be inclined to leave it to the company to navigate through this tricky little period and see how it unfolds.

Indeed procure a breach is the key phrase. Look it up in a dictionary.

The underlying license and PSA is held in a jointly owned operating company which includes the Georgian government. So the asset per se is not the license. Where in the RNS does it say license? Outrider have been trying to engineer a deal to sell the company since 2014. This is no doubt the latest attempt. You can read all about them in the 2016 court papers.

I'm a shareholder waiting to see how it plays out. What is your interest? Whatever the outcome the action is being taken to protect shareholders not hedge funds and shorters.

You seem very sure. I'm more inclined to wait and see and I have a stake in the outcome.

The Frontera oil goes into the train and off to batumi why would it stop and unload on route?

This auction oil will be from the old producing fields between block 12 and tbllisi. When you drive on the road towards block 12 you see the nodding donkeys from the old fields. Block energy and schlumberger PSA mean GOGC get profit oil and I would think that is what is being auctioned.

Now if you can find some energy ministry economic data that might give you some data to work with else have a look at the info on the block in GOGC documents to get an idea what the other blocks have been doing. These auctions have been going for years and historically they have green samgori oil.

I know a few people will be hoping I can clear up some of these new lose ends. As of now I don't have enough information I'm afraid.

As a bit of background Outrider became secured only as part of the restructure in 2017 but they have no rights to convert debt to equity in normal circumstances. I have absolutely no idea why they have suddenly decided to do something yesterday - one can but speculate. We have been here before with them. They have never been supportive of the company (quite the opposite having attempted to engineer at least 2 takeovers) and are pure opportunists. Just for good measure I did a quick search of the US court systems and can't find any new or open cases involving Frontera.

The arbitration para does not tell us much more than what we already knew - its not clear from it whether an arbitration has formally started or whether we are still talking about an arbitration.

As of today we once again have two streams of action going on. The work in the field and the corporate. The sudden flurry of corporate posturing could indicate underlying problems with the work in the field/or the underlying finances (which are not good for current liabilities) - but note the talks and the testing continue with no disclosure in the RNS of problems in that direction.

So of the three snippets the Outrider is the new bit and I don't know enough of the circumstances at the moment to say what is going on but Frontera has got a complicated corporate structure involving subsidiaries and where assets and liabilities sit as we saw in 2016.

Crab I've learnt never to take anything for granted. I'm not happy about some of the loose ends like Ya and the arbitration and in particular the way it has enabled those who care not one not for the company to profit at our expense andcoaugh at us. Equally I'm not overly excited by the last set of accounts. Be under no illusion they ran up axlotbof short term current liabilities in H1.

So in terms of going concern it is absolutely essential that they are generating revenue and hence the flow testing is putting a significant burden on the company in terms to additional cost and reduced revenue.

Could the flows be rubbish and YA wind is up? Could arbitration strip part of the block? Could the majors not exist?

I suppose it's possible but I think there is enough circumstantial evidence to give the benefit of the doubt to Zaza.

As for the valuations I will not guess share prices or double guess a value. You should not use the 202tcf and use the smaller CPR value of 13tcf and the conservative for oil until a revised reserve estimate is available. That will knockout some of the silly numbers.

This is not a nailed on certainty but I believe we do have a partner in play in taribani and we have a good chance of coming to a deal. The behind the scenes politics and connections in the US establishment and the prospective asset size has always what has kept me invested even through the darkest hours. Today's performance in the face of a tough market was very pleasing.

Mad - on the flows whether you could open it up and flow more or not the question is more how long it would flow at that rate and what is the ultimate recovery. The old CPR does have some numbers for zone 19 - one of the revelations from the drill was that the zone was double the size it had previously been measured at and with better properties. Hence the longer flow tests including shut in to pressure build at T39 one suspects.

The fact that the flow rates remain close to the chest but Zaza was not expecting the 1000 bopd for year end without Niko would indicate to me the wells will flow well but will not be gushers - certainly from zone 19 and definitely not from zones 9, 14 and 15. Zone 25 is somewhat unknown. I think the wells are highly likely to be very commercial but I don't see them as being high flow in production. If they are then that would be a pleasant surprise.

Mad I think what you say is true as well.

Obviously if your revenue per well is accelerated you commit less capital at any one time even if overall its the same in the end. If it costs $5m to drill a new well then saving 50 to 60 wells from spacing gets you into that ball park I'm convinced the original spacing was based on eldari a as the primary target. The better properties of zone 19 and the saving on fraccing in early years till the pressure equalise gives the wells a nice long tail You reduce it however if overall you spend less and that would be from drilling fewer wells. I'm not sure the wells would flow that high but that's what the testing is all about measuring not a few days flow but months. They have had over 6 months now for zone 14/15 and 10 years data on zone 9!

The Eldari b has totally changed the models and economics of the field. The attraction of taribani might be that they can invest a relatively small amount for a major amount and get some pretty quick results if they threw say 3 or 4 rigs into the field. I still think we are looking at a free carry on taribani but a very different looking deal on the gas.

Apple - the strong impression that I have formed is that one is active in Taribani on the oil at the moment and closely involved in the testing (hence why we got no site visit this summer). The second is looking at Mtsare with an eye on the gas. While they may have signed the NDA in August they look to have been onsite much earlier giving more credence to the Exon visit to the country in the summer.

I think they are different plays so its big enough to split and that does not prevent them working together (as is happening at Shah Deniz). The potential attraction of course of Block 12 is that Shah Deniz delivered the export infrastructure for the gas and theer is nearby oil export facilities as well.. Anyone currently working Shah Deniz would surely be taking a look at the results of UD2 in Block 12 you would think. The additional modelling work Schlumberger and GOGC are doing on the Basin model is also highly relevant as Frontera have a large part of the picture from work we have done.

But it is interesting that both signed NDA at pretty much the same time 9even though one was ahead) so it can't be ruled out that a consortium forms to take it on.