Member Info for mogo

I have no idea who NH is,never heard of him till last week.Likewise when I'd not heard of any of the new board when EW and MP left. Actions speak louder than words. I will assess people on that basis. I'm not well off, even less so from my losses the last 2 years including AFE. So my actions need to reflect that with Prudence my only friend. Being thrown out of investing through lack of money won't get me very far. I am away past the level of being scared to miss future anything really. This is survival now. All power to those with open wallets, I admire them but don't envy them.This is serious stuff now and very scary for me at least. Whatever the spread was in fact last week the gyrations were too much to take.And they did happen. GL.

be that as it may-the wild swings here show the speculators and MM's are using this as their play dough.

4. everything seems wrong with AIM miners except their oversold ratings.

The reason I put "strong sell" there was that "at the moment" AFE is "very dangerous" potentially for the health of your finances.How could I use "strong buy" in a share at 42% spread,any newcomer might get him/her destroyed by my action. I would entirely regret not warning people.Though yes equally it is potentially very profitable too for very experienced investors with a bit of luck..It depends on where you enter or if you want to take profits.For example again you could recently have had a x4 profit but you had to take it as it went after a short while.Traders are appearing to control the market,with the MM's deciding on whether you are allowed in or out or get stuck somewhere.A 42% spread is totally damaging.So one big deal here could in fact finish certain people unlucky enough. All of the recent gyrations have been on the back of the news that about 6 months remain during which "break up accounts" will be made up.Yes true AFE will also seek deal-makers.They still hold the Dutwa exploration licence plus all the test results.Will these have enough promise to attract someone ? All the II's seem to be still on board.Do not assume anything as regards my own finances here or anywhere.We are in a very hard investment scenario since 2010.As hairy said elsewhere this is a time for just waiting really for any turn to happen. 1. it is summer when it isn't prudent to throw cash about 2. we don't know when QE will be "tapered" 3. the general stock market appears to be too high,will it drag the miners down even further when it slips ? 3. everything seems wrong with AIM miners except their very oversold ratings.

Look at the last few week= 1. fell to just above 0.3p 2. went up to nearly 1p 3. back down to 0.3p. 4. the other day up 66% 5. now back down again With the huge spreads and inability to trade more than a few shares here,this is not a good market though yes huge profits can be got.The mistake many are making is to hold on any large rises-better to try to sell before you lose them.GL

spread lol

22% spread-a MM's delight

over a week ago this went x4 then slumped back by two-thirds.It seems obvious this has been hi jacked by the speculators and shorters-they'll pump it up again then it will again be hit hard.Watch your screen when you see a total you like- grab it.I hope its not "It told you so" in a few days ?

suspicious minds..

-is this an ex shareholder- Big hospitality newsletter- MWB Group Holdings has suspended its shares etc. they are working on how/when debts of their subsidiary need/can be paid...the March report said in event these cannot be resolved the value of the loan stock will be affected and no value will remain for shareholders. (wording changed a bit for (c)....

In the UK several football clubs have illustrated how admin.can be useful to companies.An administrator is appointed who runs the club for a while until an agreement can be reached with the debtors.They often only get so much in the £ maybe a few pence.There is a certain order of precedence and you suffer if last in the queue.Usually that fate is handed to the ex shareholders.I'd bet BOD's options come in somewhere too ? Some UK clubs trade under only slightly different names now once coming out of admin. ! They get an unfair advantage through this process,the same people can be in charge too So beware of these events which can happen...you might see a new company glossy clean of debts called African Pterodactyl (lol) dealing with the Chinese or whoever on Dutwa.But they might have a new set of shareholders not including you even if you stayed to the bitter end.But the vital point to remember is the present day AFE hold the exploration licence for a time with the leave of the TZ govt., but don't own Dutwa at all. (all of this is supposition and involves fictitious people and scenarios..)

morning some of the smaller gold and silver miners are up from 7% to 12%-SOLG,AVM,AGQ and OMI.KGI has held most of the recent gains up to now.GL

Great

Yes finance was the killer here ! ..I may have said this earlier...In 2010 a clutch of AIM companies all wanted their big projects backed. Each wished at least £500m just to bring to production.They all wanted slices of the finance cake from banks and mining majors.The banks nosedived and the majors pulled in horns even cancelling their own projects.I can't remember many T/O's of small miners in that time.With say 50 of AIM miners wanting £500m say,that was too big a number for a few banks and majors to stomach. AFE had their chances-before 2008 they had McMoran and Randgold on board as II's ! ---"Randgold take on African Eagle in gold JV"-2007 but ;later -"Southern Africa losing its shine for Randgold"...... "Freeport McMoran walks away from Ndola-African Eagle"-2007...These two are as big beasts as you can hope for..I feel the period from discovery of Dutwa in 2009 till 2010 was the vital time for us-the BOD didn't try hard enough the impression I got,though they were at loads of conferences etc.MP was however the best exec. we could hope for of course he wasn't chairman..

...a "limited liability company" is just that.Especially if one has a low number of shares. Do not assume shareholders will be high priority... Dutwa will be the prize to fight over. Again bargaining power will diminish as the 6 months of which we've had about a month dissipates.Yes the II's are the puzzle- 1. career penalties for failure/sweeping under the carpet ? 2. they might just write it off 3. insurances ? 4. a plan is in operation ? 5. a newcomer at 3.7% at this time is very unusual-their motives ? All of the above of course is speculation without personal side or intent implied to anyone.GL. (using the pen which is mightier than the sword works provided you are sure someone reads it officially..)

I see both of these appear to be in administration,with unpaid debts they cannot pay.Posters on LSE,the threads still exist- seem to accept they won't get much if at all..

"we do not deserve this"-personally I do, as I should have reacted far earlier.Previously in several AIM shares I've for up to 2 years in these swallowed the bait given by BOD's -the "blue sky tomorrow" fairy tale which seems to be all that keeps some of these AIM companies operational.Factors appear to be-- 1. low exposure of BOD's to risks by not having many shares 2. plenty of options to save money if they do want shares 3. for those who don't take income they are on plenty of other BOD's 4. printing new shares just like the BOE and Fed print money.Really a few electronic entries does the trick. The apparent limit seems to be the "face value" of the shares. 5. Backed by a few fellow brokers who issue optimistic reports to justify their existence.The high valuations become a fig leaf protecting the BOD from criticism 6. not often replying to shareholder contacts and they can shelter behind the need to not divulge insider knowledge 7. for those who use SEDAs I won't go into that as I see information on the net I can't repeat.. In this scenario yes Ren there might be some kind of "break up value" in fact they'll be looking into that now.Though of course include the X deduction of unpaid TZ tax.. Dutwa will still exist,but AFE don't own it,it must revert to TZ after a certain time in the licence unless work is done.Yes the value of the licence might be transferred before that ? It doesn't help to obtain buyers having broadcasted that only a few months remain.. of course yes there has to be a mining sector in future,metals must be mined to maintain stocks.Perhaps the members of AIM will change a lot and reduce sharply to leave those better able to make ends meet ? Tactically in these companies we need to be more agile for example the other week this share went nearly x4 .The best idea seems to be trying to grab these chances though it isn't easy to plan.Loyalty and buy and hold appears out the window now. However we do have an alibi. I doubt if many apart from the shorters have done too well in this market which has been one of the worst in living memory since around 2008.Yes of course the FTSE has risen but in so many fits and starts and is only held up now by QE. GL

Just read the RNS. It seems they are getting ready for the inevitable bankruptcy. Money the little available can't further Dutwa any more. All any money might do is to ensure survival another few months at tick over levels. It also seems that they have guessed at a £600,000 liability for Tanzania on a "think of a number" basis. Maybe by the time TZ decides a tax figure the company will be gone ? All or most of the various JV's were royalty based with companies too small to see these coming to fruition for years.Elephant Copper was a non event the copper just handed away really.The gold JV was better but AFE won't benefit in time. Anyone who hasn't sold AFE yet- should think of doing so. Yes a chance in 100 that some salvage might happen but you might jump back on board in that unlikely event.The present BOD have not invested much so won't suffer too much- though JP and MP the largest ex board shareholders will be hit badly and their families.Hopefully they have other money and investments to tide over. Yes this was once a great little company for a time between 2009 and 2010 a rather short 2 year good period between fluffing about with lots of interests pre 2009 before most here were in,and the mining slump of post 2010.In that time MP managed with EW and did well to bring Dutwa forth.Even good gains were got for a select few clever enough to sell near 17p.But those days are long gone.The new BOD was a total failure,they never took on board MP's advice "not being miners" and not enough even in MP's time yes,was ever done to chase prospective dealmakers.Dutwa was held too tight for some reason.The maths was totally wrong always for being a miner without a complete takeover or large deal and I said that often but that doesn't make me happier. Yes knowing I failed too by not seeing the time to sell my shares then. This mining slump we are in now has in fact crept up on us as we have failed to believe it could go as far as it has.A recovery still has to come in the sector sometime but the market has no emotions and won't give us time.Investing can be a very cruel game for many. Of course AIM at least gives the consolation of allowing us to record losses and roll forward against tax allowances for CG.Though most would have preferred to stay and make money in these shares.There are some successful AIM miners the producers not requiring SEDAs or placings,but it is these things which set you on a spriral downwards. As to Dutwa the TZ govt.will probably take it back to cover tax liabilities though even they can't develop it without help,probably the Chinese will get it quite cheap ? This board on LSE has been one of the best with very nice people all of whom I regard as friends.God luck to you all. I will continue to post here though and to see waht happens..

I used to say that any oil share beginning with E might be a takeover -I was in the EOG Edinburgh Oil,Gas and ENT Enterprise Oil takeovers a few years ago lol.With EO. I was out before the T/O.Of course XEL Xcel maybe shouldn't qualify for that rule ?

Again I would strongly recommend the Nadeem Walyat articles on Market Oracle- he is the director of such and has views on the general investment direction in the UK,and prudent ways of putting your money thereof..GL.