Member Info for mogo

see that AFE is on the way to dying now or in a few months ?

re your question at 20.33. I think that statement is now out of date. I've seen this with football clubs where HMRC can call for a liquidation for nonpayment of taxes. Similarly EW's demand for income can tip AFE into liquidation.A provisional liquidator can be appointed -he gets a big whack too,the BOD lose power bfrom there on,as he runs the company so as to pay all the people owed who may only get so much pence in the £. Shareholders come last in order of payment priority and usually nothing gets left from the cake for them.Woolworths,HMV and others they got nothing.Though today I saw one HMV store still open ????

various others to stick their knives into AFE as it dies, in fact I can think of several other directors who we never heard of taking any income off this for years since when I came in in 2008 never heard of that. If EW thinks he can claim then all the old board should be able to ? Including our hero ? I said "strong sell" and I still liked the company but my regard is evaporating.. However these people did work hard for years and went out there in the hot sun and flies and disease so who can oppose that ? The maths will be (Break up value-minus A,B,C,D.............Z.), leaving not a lot. Yes buried within that will be the licence which someone will have grabbed-they'll get it for little but can use as a store of value for the future. Of course they can't cash in the chips of Dutwa without paying the $600m set up costs,but plenty might be up for it. Ren you'll get nothing from Liquidation. Sorry.

double post there lol

-also in that scenario the victims will be the poor mining explorers without production or finance to get over the barriers of labour plant and overheads to reach production.OMI and the others in my target list-see below have done that already and while yes they'll suffer if the govt. squeezes them they got through 2008 so I'd guess will survive again.Some of the largest producers pay dividends and have large cash piles from till recently having costs of about $1000/oz gold and gold was at $1800/oz quite recently too.Balance sheets will be quite good,if they are prudent.OMI have cut back too a bit to save costs.

-also in that scenario the victims will be the poor mining explorers without production or finance to get over the barriers of labour plant and overheads to reach production.OMI and the others in my target list-see below have done that already and while yes they'll suffer if the govt. squeezes them they got through 2008 so I'd guess will survive again.Some of the largest producers pay dividends and have large cash piles from till recently having costs of about $1000/oz gold and gold was at $1800/oz quite recently too.Balance sheets will be quite good,if they are prudent.OMI hve cut back too a bit to save costs.

we are seeing again how AFE is now a toy of the MM's and traders and speculators,without real news it continues to shoot up and down like a yo-yo and with spreads off the scale-not because I dislike AFE much the reverse but because AFE is now playing the victim of these forces.GL

looking into Clive Maund's Market Oracle article on gold,it is mostly chart and sentiment based of course. He does cite that the dollar and gold are inter linked. I had been under the impression for months that the Fed wanted to inflate away debts by lowering the dollar and causing inflation by printing money. Of course they don't actually print money,QE involves feeding the banks who hold the benefits to themselves. Whatever QE might be,it seems to be helping the unemployment rate in the US. Are they in business to cut debts ? I think they might re write the rules instead of bothering to try to pay off debts.Debts in fact oil investment and world trade,you have to have them These are in fact ballooning with the interest alone.Which is the basis for holding physical gold though yes it might be confiscated then revalued in the US as in 1933. I don't have any real answers to these dilemmas,all I do is invest with hope as carefully as possible.GL

as costs are..

post rec. If you are correct a lot of miners will exit as costs care around $1000/oz. However hard it would be to fight the Fed-famous saying "don't fight the Fed"-might these larger better set up goldminers cut production so tending to halt the fall in the gold price ? Yes still the smaller ones might die ?

I track a set of what I regard as some of the better producers of gold and silver I've held most in the past and they are potentially again good companies-HOC,OMI,AVM,FRES,RRS,ABG,KGI.POG....KGI recently did manage a few good things but much of the others did little apart from consolidate their apparent base levels though POG wasn't too good.. Look at Clive Maund's 2 articles on gold and silver at Market Oracle -he suggests a base IS forming.However another article writer there disputes that. This situation with these shares is either a great chance to get in at the basement or another part of a sad story.

I've made a case for goldminers in production at least salvaging a base recently.KGI profited from good May results which boosted it from 200p to 350p but that rise seems over now. Whether the better producers can get upwards consistently still appears to be decided if at all.

is this stabilising more,or more falls to come ?

-hi there again sercher ! Right one,in early 2009 this looked almost as bad at 1p as we had no Dutwa and the strong II's were exiting rapidly though MP was doing most things for the BOD.No board or ex board member has sold shares anytime since-they must have lost high percentages and maybe lost all their too-high options by now... Amazingly now there is Dutwa,the II's remain here but the share has plummeted. The volatility and high spreads are unbelievable,and up and down wildly now. The BOD must works all hours to seal a deal within a few months. Are the licences worth anything in absence of the initial $600m to start production ?

yes I did see you withdrew that. Fair dos. No doubt many have the same story in many shares especially in AIM. We have choices provided we have a small amount to invest- 1. leave in the bank till things change. PROS allows assessment of new things CONS minus 4% for inflation in bank 2. invest in something new PROS it might recoup losses CONS it might be even worse 3. stick with your losers PROS and CONS ditto no.2 The game changer for most would be getting a 10-bagger somewhere but these are uncommon the last few years-Obviously AFE is way down low,but the "new" board I'm sorry to say haven't really so far been convincing compared to EW and MP.Remember them ? As always take this or leave it ?

I first invested in AFE in 2008.I've never claimed any second sight here. All I will give you is "what you see is what you get" Of course Bringiton this share has potential for a newcomer without baggage. But maxwells some of us here have far longer histories including investing far higher. Do we leave or do we pump in huge sums ? The maths of averaging down are not great now for those either without large funds or just plain scared at the potential consequences. This is serious and it isn't too funny for many..for you to consider to filter me up to you.That is in fact the first example of that kind of thing in an otherwise very nice friendly board here for 5 years..

yes I'm the same-made a few minor profits on the way up here a few times in then out-could hardly not.But always the doubts-could it be sustained-obviously I and others were wrong.ASC's international brands are over 50% now-well on the way to become a very big player now.Of course those doubts remain they always will.Can a ludicrous p/e stop it? Many other shares it was correct to leave after gains but this was the exception.That's the story of my investments lol.Meanwhile my miners slumped.I'm not wanting any sympathy but there you have it lol.A pity I've no spare cash.Is this ISAable now ?

I don't divulge personal details here,neither do you.But you shouldn't doubt anything I post here...just read the words.

I posted that NH should have been NC-Nick Clark...the rest of the post is my honest view.

In my post I should have said NC=Nick Clark.,Sorry. GL.