Member Info for mogo

totally stuck

if CNE sell the rest of CI they can't complain in future if the shares get totally stick or go downwards.Yes that might be a final S/D but the shares get diluted,trapping you in here.I'd seriously think of selling soon..

Tanzania has been a kind of favourite place for China with the railways and so on..

Yes the parent Barrick though in not any probs. might as major shareholders here want to pay off some of their recent losses by selling off their shares in ABG in fact causing a T/O ? £0.5bn+ worth up for grabs.

they've thrown an astounding amount of money into Baffin Bay.Should have stayed in India for years raking in profits.Doubt if any further big dividends will come for a long while.At least is is "safe" but ultra boring too.Been in a band 250p to 290p for ages.You could buy up next time it hits 250p with reasonable safety and getting about 15% profit off that on an upswing,but surely there is better elsewhere ?

I think this and other goldminers can still have shenanigans caused by QE sillinesses and forced rumours-sell on rises buy on dips,or at least buy more on the dips.Uv no hope in bank interest for maybe 3 years uve been told by Carney so you invest or watch inflation whittle cash away.Cash is needed tho for between buys.Don't buy on rises thats sure.Buy on drops.Today a pointer for first time Blackrock Gold Fund top looked at on Hargreaves Lansdown site shows ordinary blokes/gals getting interested,hopefully not the herd-yet lol.

many bigger US goldminers just rose 4% to 6%.Carney in the UK intends to soak the poors' small bank accounts using inflation.You HAVE TO invest somewhere,you're being forced to anyway with no respite likely in bank interest for a few years.The danger is another housing bubble which isn't based this time on prosperous buyers but speculators.Though bank interest will be very low,inflation will be going up.GL

see this good rise plus AVM getting +28% now off their Q2 reports.They mention cost cutting in Q3 I think a lot of goldminers can produce better Q3 results from their own control over some of the new all in costs such as closing weaker mineshafts and reducing exploration.These will in turn cut production which will hit supply another good thing.GL

AVM produced their results for Q2 today,again they say they will cut costs in Q3.I think many goldminers will be able to do that for Q3.The new "allin" costs included have plenty in control of the miners themselves such as cutting exploration and closing weaker mines etc.That will have the longer term effect of reducing supply which is good overall.An article also said some of the larger ones might buy back shares soon to help.

actually we now have OMI +10% and AVM +28%!

US Treasury bond yields

the "push" on interest rates and inflation comes from US Treasury nwhich have in fact risen a fair bit in the last while.Watching that.Yes ABG is still holding up well.The bad news is out already.An article in Kitco was saying again that goldminers are cost cutting so if gold roughly holds up quite well the next Q3 results should be better.Agree that any interest rate rise would sink mortgages.So they probably will try to avoid that even if QE goes.Certainly the markets look very nervy of QE going,I think that might torpedo this bull market if they do that.I'm not convinced they care overmuch,their priority is holding up the banks.They like the dollar too but it has to be forced down to help pay debts by inflation.So far that hasn't come off too well.A lower dollar if they can get it must help all commodities which are priced in dollars.I don't think ABG holders have too much to worry about meantime.Yes of course though the gold price is important,I think ABG can cope with prices about $1200+ but not much lower please.Again as I said earlier the major goldminers do have the final move if they decide to cut production to raise gold back by lack of supply though yes that might throttle some weaker ones in the process.

ABG is holding up well compared to the gold index the HUI.Which last has dropped to 217 the lowest since in 2008 when 193 was recorded.The action since 2008 is a "nice" head and shoulders formation now almost completed.Though with some not too high rises over the next year or so it might be a larger H and S which began in 2005!

should they accept it is to allow interest rates to rise while paying off the huge debts,removing QE and normalising the economy without destroying the dollar.Gold should anything go wrong will be ready to rise.

That was a good summationof the cleft stick investors are in now.Imagine two dropping charts-the goldminers one falling since 2010-11 and the general FTSE100 etc. one which you must mark in as beginning its fall in autumn 2013.Maybe once the big investors return in September and QE might be running down or at least them talking about it.So of these two falling charts the goldminers are about 2.5 years ahead by then. Choices- 1. the goldminers fall in synch with the general stocks. 2. the goldminers might begin to rise long before general stocks. I'd not back 1. since any examination of charts shows goldminers to have their own trends in the past.As you're seeing now. There is still the possibility QE might not end for a good while.Also as I said I'd like to see them preserving stability while interest rates rise while paying off all the debts.Gold will be there waiting to exploit instability if there is any. NOTE the US T-bond rates-2.67% now.

always somewhere to invest though now things seem a bit limited- 1. put into top FTSE100 etc. shares now at or near a peak.You'd feel nice being with the "herd" but for how long will it feel nice ? 2. invest in gold or anything to do with mining and a few other distressed sectors.Quite apart from the high risks if going into AIM-there has been no real rush now AIM is ISAable-you are going contrarian and might need to ride a further fall while case 1 shares also slump sometime quite soon.However this is the brave and potentially clever move ? Better to go for larger companies like ABG which have given out their bad news again it could be worse for a time. 3. some other odd corners immune to stock market crashes.Wish I could find some. 4. staying in cash for now otherwise.Appears quite attractive with inflation supposedly low if you believe that and of course in a safe bank-is there such a thing ? GL DYOR

obviously ABG has slipped a bit but has held up well considering the bad news elsewhere for gold etc and about QE, news seems to suggest it WILL be tapered quite soon.The S and P US Index which hit nearly 171 an all time record on Monday slipped a little to about 169.7 today.Will QE ending sink the S and P and make that 171 the record for the next few years ? The HUI gold index has been falling badly since May 2011 at nearly 600 but a partial recovery came just a month ago.However it is just a tiny foothill and is being taken back now.Late June was the all time base at 206,we are now at 219. As I said yesterday the interesting thing is gold had its peak in May 2011 and should the S and P peak this autumn as it might with QE ending perhaps,then goldminers shares will have been out of synch by 2.5 years with the main index.Would goldminers therefore recover quicker than the main index ? Again I'd say preserve any cash to be able to move in on that at a chosen time..GL

I wish no illwill on anyone but the script seems planned the next few years- QE ends dollar rises ecomony recovers debts all paid off prosperity for all-houses,cars,etc BUT nothing for commodity investors as gold/metals etc. will go rockbottom interest rates HAVE to rise,to a "normal" rate which books say is up to 6%.After all this is the reward you get for allowing your capital to be placed in someones hands for a year or so. Explain dear friends how rising interest rates will allow all that debt to be paid off.Happy to watch this begin.Meanwhile stay in cash if you have any.Certainly nothing into peaking shares at record all time heights.Charts to follow.GL DYOR

still a buy on the 5 day moving average having crossed above the 20dma in 22 July onwards.The MACD has been rising since early July.Relative strength above 60%.GL DYOR

While still confused,including my typos lol-I looked at the US S&P 500,the most important index.In 2000 and 2007 it hit 152 and 154 now it is at 165.31 fallen a bit from yesterday's all time top 170.74,the exchange opens later of course.This has to end sometime.Might the finishing of QE cause that ? I do not feel any major reinvestments should be made prudently in this scenario and cash for now is king.Though tempting I cannot look at any shares which have followed up to this peak.They must be expensive and quite liable to fall.Of course this might have longer to go.The 13 year projection of the 2000 and 2007 tops trendline has been broken through to unknown territory now. Might we assume that the stimulus has helped/caused this amazing rise ? QE and rockbottom interest rates.Is there a real boom or is it being artificially induced ? In a real boom as in 2000 and 2007 money was plentiful.Yes money is being printed now but it is staying mostly in the bank vaults to hold these up.QE has helped US banks-no. of failures from wikipedia-2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 so far 26.140,157,92,51,13. Conclusion a moderate amount of gold shares might be held.Otherwise should be in cash.