Member Info for mogo

Today looked at various info. as pointers- Kitco saying gold/silver will not have good rest of year due to tapering QE,better emplyment figures and a stronger dollar coming up. Meamwhile I see US funds are down quite stongly.Latin America too is down quite stongly-though the other day an article in a paper said emerging markets should be looked at.Kitco says base metals might improve assuming China becomes better. Conclusion- at the moment stay where I am,and cash is king if I have anything left lol! Though still semi shattered for investments after several years of being shredded,so can't take undue risks.At least my gold shares are against the herd.GL DYOR.

on the 1 month chart ABG is a buy since 22 July since the 5 day moving average has topped the 20 DMA...

of the original "2 months capital" there can't be much time or cash left of that though I've not been counting.

I was careful in my post to limit myself to seeing it as maybe the II's might,as a potential tax write off and gamble.Anyone here who has sold has presumably absorbed their loss similarly for a CG tax credit against future hopeful gains.Of course none of us are definitely to get any gains lol in fact we mighnt in future see more losses anywhere we are.I sometimes wonder how many investors survived the years since 2008 unscathed,from reading many posts here I'd guess very few,or at least the gainers are keeping very quiet.Then think of all the ex directors of HMV,Woolworths,NRK,World.com etc.The list is huge all since 2008.Probably the real winners stayed in cash! Though they lost about 5% pa from inflation and rising prices.Investing in small miners is a habit but is it a bad habit like smoking and alcohol ?

I have no idea whether or when QE will be removed.Articles appear to suggest that it must be stopped as the Fed. balance sheet doesn't look good.Though maybe they don't care about that ? Anyway making the assumption it will be scaled back sometime,we have shares without their safety net. Goldminers as per my previous post-see that-had their last peak in 2010-11.Could it be that goldminers are again as they were in the past a certain time out of snych with general shares ? Say general shares peaked on removal of QE,gold shares would by then have been down for over 3 years.Yes they'd be affected by many other shares falling but I think they might rise sooner. Anyway we do have some facts- 1. general shares seem to be near their peaks. 2. gold miners have been down for nearly 3 years now. Of course I've often in the past thought that miners are at the base but was wrong as they had more falling to do...GL DYOR

must be very undervalued now ?

It is interesting to compare ABG and the FTSE100 using Yahoo UK Finance charts at various settings. If you invested in both at various periods here are the results- 5 years ago FTSE100 evens ABG down 80% 2 years ago FTSE100 20% up,ABG 80% down 1 year ago FTSE100 15% up ABG 70% down 6 months ago FTSE100 6% up ABG 68% down 3 months ago FTSE100 2% up ABG 23% down 1 month ago FTSE100 4% up ABG 11% up 5 days ago FTSE100 1.5% up ABG 0% up

Thanks for that.We can't compare ABG as it has only been independent a few years so let's look at the HUI Gold Bug Index compared to the FTSE100.This is quite easy to do using the Yahoo UK Finance charts with "compare" on the "maximum" setting- what we find is the FTSE100 was down in the mid 90's while the HUI was up. In 2000 the FTSE100 was peaking while the HUI was down.In 2003 the FTSE hit base while the HUI was already climbing.In 2007 the FTSE began dropping from a peak several months (5) before the HUI did.However the HUI hit base 5 months before the FTSE did in 2009.2011 was the HUI peak from where it was dropped ever since while the FTSE100 has gone on rising to now. What this shows is the HUI and the FTSE100 do drop and rise roughly together in recent years but the timings can be several months apart up to 5 months in fact.DYOR GL

the removal of QE might be a double edged sword for shares. a. goldminers might suffer initially as inflation/removal of stimulus is seen.We saw that last week and in May. b. mainstream shares might slump as the removal of their safety net will be anticipated.And interest rates could rise hitting mortgages and unemployment. There might however be a longer term bonus for gold shares if the removal of QE is seen as a disaster or if it is brought back again,gold might rise with that instability. Either way I think there will be a lot of testing of resolve here and many shenanigans and manipulations coming up from the Fed.And some articles are saying the US COMEX gold exchange is running out of real physical gold to cover their deals,as it has been loaned out or sold.It is difficult though to decipher their accounts which are designed to cloud the issue.See Market Oracle articles.GL DYOR.

IF I had some money to invest this morning,where could it go ? 1.Momentum method.Odviously anything in the top shares where there have been rises since about 2009.Of course now peaks have been reached and surpassed,you are paying top dollar and thus taking on the risks that the markets might at any time slump.Of course it is pleasant being with the "herd".Even if they are a bunch of lemmings about to jump over a cliff. 2. Contrarian.Mining,anything there and a very few other sectors which have suffered since at least 2010.Gains could potentially be large though the risk is the slump of mainstream shares when it happens might pull these down even further.Psychologically you put up with feeling a fool at being isolated in a small band stupid enough to back losers lol. 3. Stay in cash.The penalties would be missing any upside from picking 1 and 2. Losing about 3% to 5% per annum due to inflation.Of course once the stock market slumps as it will sometime,then new momentum shares can be bought. DYOR GL

an excellent post,see mine at POG too.

these new all in costs are able to be cut by most goldminers which they are doing by reducing weaker parts of mines and exploration.ABG are doing a sizeable economy purge.Any dividend might be stopped.The Fed. will continue to try and hex gold.Though quite a few central banks especially in the East want to load up with it.Western banks loan it out and may have much lower stocks of gold these days.Yes agree that it will be choppy for a time maybe till after QE gets removed,I can't see a return to $1800/oz until some big shenanigans happen.As it will sometime.

ABG is getting closer to the 50 day average at 123 but the 200 day is up at 228. However being about half the 200 day average shows just how oversold this is.The MACD has been rising all through June though is still negative.The relative strength is 68%.Volume has been moderate.The herd is still absent lol.Since 22 July the 5 day is above the 20 day average giving a "buy".On ichimoku trader this is a "bull".Since early July this is up 10% the most having been 13% so the gains are being held so far.

the jobs figures helped gold a bit,but its still been a hard week with bad figures from majors who are now cost cutting which should help in Q3,OMI are also doing that.Small shares tend to fall and rise much more.

name should be randyoldman wasn't paying attention.

ABG has announced results.Until those from Q3 that is it.The gold price will decide mean time.When Q3 ends there will have been cuts and economies put in place to cope with a lower gold price if that is to be.Costs of production of gold here should be lower.Looking at the chart there is a base just below 100p where the SP is less than 40% of the 200 day average at 231p now. Of course there is no rule that says gold shares must rise,but who is to say gold will never again go above $1300/oz. ? Provided the gold companies we invest in stay solvent,that time will come.I believe ABG will be one that will be solvent on the basis of the figures this week,so I have no reason to worry.GL DYOR

looks like an attack of the clones-India,the Fed. and the unmemployment figures later today.We knew there'd be shenanigans as the Fed/Bernie don't understand gold-quote.Their dollar index and their QE are their gods.However keep looking at US T Bond prices still seeming to be on the rise.The real killer might be whether people can afford houses and with what kind of money.

Gold is not over by a long chalk...Kinross decided after some rises yesterday to go down a bit after their impairments though their report wasn't all that bad,like here too.It's been a hard week for gold shares with several majors announcing bad effects from Q2 a quarter with lower gold prices.However in Q3 it might be possible for the costs cuttings to make a better impact ? And production will be cut at poorer mines of these majors.Plus exploration too.Thec story remains of shares right down up to 40% lower in cases from the 200 day averages.There cannot be overmuch more downside can there ? Possibly the jobs reports later today might show a continued improvement though the Fed. did not appear to say much more about timing of tapering,which many thought would come from September,of course that might still happen.All we can do is remain aware here,checking the news and some might get more ABG shares if there are lower prices.GL DYOR

even Kinross were up under 3% when last looked at.All those others taking hits last week also up.As I said,the larger goldminers can adjust production downward in case gold falls.Over on ichimoku trader all of these majors I tried indicated "bull." except sadly some smaller ones.

now says a $2.289bn impairment,not surprised there was a list a few months ago forecasting up to 5 majors with big hits.Again we see other parts good for Kinross as with those others in the previous post.All that matters is the effect on the SP being small.These companies will be cutting production/making economies and becoming more resilient thus.On housing I see reports that it isn't good,all those Fed/BOE handouts made.And mortgages threaten to rise.Speculators rumoured to have taken nup the slack while ordinary people can't afford the higher prices.Yes a years' housing boom but how long more ?