Member Info for mogo

the director of Market Oracle,is now claiming - 1. UK interest rates will be 4.5% by the end of next year.The BOE claims that 0.5% will be fixed for at least 3 years are wrong he claims.Inflation may rise to 7% pa 2. a housebuying boom will result for the "rest of thid decade" not being affected by the rises in mortgage rates as about 4.5% is "normal" for the course..He confirms mortgage rates cannot be fixed by the BOE,they rely on the money market. These are serious claims.He's been right so far.This is his test.I'm not personally making any comment.Only reporting this.If interested read the actual words over on Market Oracle.

POLY new entrant

I said I'd chart my 14 list -all gold/silver UK registered producers with "reasonable- sized MCaps". -avoiding AIM nonproducers. Nothing assumed,yes stability might be preferable to getting easy gains.often these can be lost just as easily.I listed each share compared to how much times growth x2 etc. is needed in the present SP to hit the all time high of the last 10 years.There is no guarantee this will ever happen of course and things have changed over the years.Anyway here it is-OMI X23, POG X14, AVM X12, PGD X5.5, KGI X5, AAZ X4, ABG X4, MML X3.5,HOC X2.5,GDP X2, AR. X2,FRES X2, POLY new entrsnt x1.5, RRS X1.5.

on my list of 14 larger UK gold/silver producers,7 are up and 7 down now..gold is also a bit lower than earlier.In any possible bull market even temporary-not assuming anything-it is tempting to go into the highest risers.But still contrarianism might be best,a few slower ones will attract clever investors.So far we have AVM being able to 3-bag since July.However FRES is being held back as it is xd. for now.ABG seems a steady gainer up to now.That's over 60% since July.I'm hoping to get some charting done,but it is happening so fast.Goldminers do have a lot of slack to take up as they fell a lot more than gold itself did over the last 6 months.Though a few like CNR are doing well,I'd still be careful about nonproducers in AIM.Of course the biggest gains might be there but also the most risks of huge reverses.The Fed's September backbite is looming.Carefully but coinfidently.

QE is untested in the US and in Japan did it not fail to work for many years ? Japan is now trying to devalue the yen which so far has raised their stock market but their problem is an ageing population whose people will become less productive.And they have no immigrants to fill the workforce unlike the ageing UK even.Not that the UK is a success with among the highest debts in Europe. There have been two recent debt cliffs re jigged another will come along soon.The overall debt is increasing,can they ever pay that off with higher interest rates too ? I've no idea whether or when gold will rise,but an article I read says forget why how when,just look at plain charts.A chart is a picture of the market.First question is it going up or down ? Its like a football match,theres the level of skill,the sporting aspect,how good the referee is,the crowd size,who ate all the pies lol,but in the end the result is all that counts.

Yes QE is an untested experiment.On the surface it seems to have produced an apparent success for general shares apart from goldminers and AIM until recently.Housebuilding has also been boosted by separate support from the Western Treasuries.This has been a kind of stealth nationalisation of the building industry.Real estate REITs seem less affected than straight housebuilders' shares.I've held these until a while ago but sold as I was noticing a few signs of rockiness.With your goldming shares I think we need stop losses though the most effective stop loss is still control of selling manually yourself.I think for myself this has been my weakness,the ability to bleed off profits even on upturns.I've already done one switch to rack up some of those.September looks like when battle might be joined,with the Fed's bluff maybe being called,and do they have any plans to limit gold-already in the past about a year ago there were margin rules to tighten gold deals-tried in India too recently were import controls.Do not underestimate the Fed.Then as I said though H2 is favourable,2014 is a further chapter.As you saw with my earlier post gold followed a general stocks fall in October 2007 by itself falling in February 2008.Could that repeat ? But note goldminers shares made hay then for another 5 months! GL

Nearly all goldminers have basic costs well below the present gold price-around $1000/oz. or so.However the new "all in" costs were brought in this year.Added are some other costs including exploration etc.Which brings costs up just befow the present gold price for many companies.What we are seeing as you say graftman, is cutting back on exploration etc. which is in the miners' own control.I think you'll see the Q3 results should be far better even if gold stays about the same.Thus goldminers' profits will be up.Another thing they'll be cutting is weaker mines they have,but this will reduce gold supply.This will factor in a squeeze on gold supply,a very good idea.I'm hoping at a time of Eastern gold demand always in any H2 festivals etc.that goldminers can realize they have a partial whip hand on supply just like Bernanke has that on dollar printing.You can't print gold but you can control its supply.Yes as you say of course the Chinese will soon be able to dictate supply better if they have a lot in their vaults.The West with less not so much.Anyway from this it appears Q3 and mayb e Q4 might be good for us.Next year-not so sure that will depend on crisis factors like whether QE is there or not. Finally you are inevitably going to get some ten- or more -baggers in the nonproducing AIM gold shares.These cannot cut costs -as they have no gold -unless they cut projects.Which is their only target gone away.Also the banks still cannot provide them finance.Or don't want to. Therefore our temptation will need balanced by prudence in that direction.In 2011 these juniors slumped far more than the big ones.So we want in these in 2014 which I think will be a dangerous time when the main markets will be going down from the present peak ? By 2014 I might be all in cash! Hopefully with a few profits.Unlike in 2011 lol. Yes the small miners might rise more but it will be mostly speculation.A very few like CNR might be exceptions ? GL.

Over on POG I looked into this recently.Summarising,from examining charts of the HUI Gold Index vs. the Standard and Poors v.important US Index,I found that- 1. In 2007-8 the main market crashed first but goldmining only 5 months later! 2. Yes both were crashing in 2008. 3 But again gold went up in October 2008 when the main market was going to the bottom and 6 months before the main market began the recovery of this cycle.. 4. Goldmining went up to a peak in 2011.Meanwhile the main market slowly rose and I think reached a peak 2 weeks ago.We all know how goldmining fell from 2011 to Juneish this year. This IF REPEATED shows that goldmining can move independently before and after main share movemnents for periods of MONTHS. Now the Herd are guided by the Sun,Express etc. which blare headlines only when peaks of bubbles are reached.A useful method might be to hold goldmining shares till these Tabloids blare to Buy Gold! Yes they were saying that in 2011 just before the last goldmining crash then.Also many gold-dealing booths had been set up in malls.The Herd aren't here yet.The East knows about gold but that's been for centuries. Eastern investor-hears that gold is down-Quick -buy some! Western person-panic selling! GL

They give a..

at least in the West appear unchanged by all of this.I've been reading a few tabloids like the Express,plays down gold though admits the East likes it.Thet give a Goldman Sachs report saying gold will be just above $1000/oz next year.I hardly think so as that will force miners to cut back and reduce output hitting supply badly.Anyway today in the Express they are saying bonds will do very well but not shares with QE stopped.And blurbs on dirt cheap mortgages and housing booms.A few weeks ago it was-your pensions are great as shares are so good! Always the booster headline.The herd read all that and are only told things at peaks of bubbles. FTSE shares-bubble bursting Bonds-down now Housing-doubts there if interest rates rise. So if you do what they say you miss everything because they don't blare headlines till tops are reached.GL

Thanks for all the technicals you obviously have the gen I lack.Who are these 2 new folks and Harry ? I hope there will be more company here soon, but the volumes recently have been poor,the rises from the MM's ? I imagine at this rate if it goes on,I'll be breaking even in about a week.110p already.Other goldminers are on year peaks.I'd therefore expect fast growth here.

the sad problem is even with a gold boom if there is one many junior miners can't sell gold as they don't produce,also banks still won't give finance for mine developments.The new all-in costs include exploration etc. and the gold majors are cutting these plus weaker mines after writedowns in Q2.I expect Q3 majors results will be good,even if gold stays the same because of that.The juniors can't make these economies.I still expect your picks to do well in any gold surge since investors pile into juniors where you get the biggest up-and downs of course as a reward for extra risk.Meanwhile some of my best like AHT are going to suffer in a general shares drop already begun from a peak 2 weeks ago.My guesses only GL DYOR.

it is difficult managing this-most of this applies to me but maybe to many who were fully invested the last few years in mining.For anyone new to this,great as all your gains will be net gains.Lucky people. 1. the need to take profits in case this gold surge stops.Learned bitterly over the last few years.The only real profit is one in your bank.Loyalty to any share is misguided. 2. lack of capital from said previous bursts. Despite these things it is still necessary to invest as banks are no place to park money long term unless for necessities/emergencies.Bonds are being busted as we type.The general shares are now peaking over the top of this cycle.Long term looks very bad with debts and looming interest rates rises coming up.GL

sorry should have seen you told me that lol.

I'm in several gold majors,and LRL which is awaiting a vital report-am really mostly put off AIM otherwise from that even the likes of CNR, as these cannot sell gold or finance development due to banks withholding cash. ASC has been tipped to falter many times by those who had to admit they messed the chance of a lifetime including myself by getting out too low-my comment comes from a break in the chart now -the first since June/July,at a time when the top general shares are getting a bit rockier due to QE fears.We will see. I think IC will tip goldminers this week a bit late for the initial stage.I've no delusions about anything,only count gains that are solidly taken and can be deducted from my rather large CG credits lol! What sorts of things are you in ?

I've thought about this,if JT for example picked BP. this year he can't include next years' dividends,they must be paid within this year to count.Therefore as the comp. ends on 31.12.13-therefore if the shareholders vote and it is done in time ,I should only get the fixed 80p for AFF shares and nothing else,the extra payments are in a future year you see..

didn't explain that well.So-the 40p and the two 8%'s shouldn't be added to my final total for shares,just kept separate in event of a tie as "special dividends".

-- to be sporting in view that payment can't be within our year can we regard the 40p and the two 8%'s just as "dividends" and not cash as the buyer can in the agreement decide to pay in shares not cash.

-the 40p is payable in cash at the end of two years but the buyer can instead of cash give their shares which should be worth 40p per share.

The judges will need to decide about the AFF proposed takeover.It is voted on 29th September and the outline terms are 80p per share plus a loan note for 40p for two years at 8% p.a.............of course it might not get the vote but there is time for the judges to think about this till the decision which should be made before the end of the year,however our deadline is 31.12.13 ...so if the official sale date was after that it wouldn't in my opinion count.I'd claim that if the sale is made before 31.12.13 I should be credited with the 40p and the two 8%'s be put into "dividends received" though yes I'd not get them till one year then two years.