Member Info for mister_tidal

Due to the comma in the URL you'd have to copy & paste it. This forum does not seem to be able to recognize the entire URL

Kinda interesting comparison:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=%2Fm%2F0cqhghf,%2Fg%2F11rc28gr49,%2Fg%2F11bwq6d6g_&hl=en-GB

Where's TL actually? 😅

@Strangy

I wouldn't expect 8 GPX to happen over night, but potentially within 6 to 12 months?

For one, equity was certainly not reflected accurately in the books. I think that's proven fact now that we know Uskmouth's asset value is almost equal to SAE's entire debt. Please somebody correct me if I'm getting the numbers wron here.

4x £12m = £48m

Thanks to BESS, SAE is on its way to a stable revenue base in addition to MeyGen's revenue. I think we may be rather confident that the company is going to be able to secure additional funding in CfD AR6.

Imo the latest report sheds a very different light at the company. This time, however, in contrast to what happened with the coal plant conversion, there's likely nothing that will prevent SAE from executing the BESS project.

I chuckled a little when Reid said in the interview something along the lines "all our projects are aligned with the national green strategy" or something like that. For those who forgot or didn't know: that (almost) broke the company 2-3 years ago.

If you don't believe 8 GBX is possible, that's fine. But maybe we can agree that 2 GBX is not reflecting the company right now. Perhaps we can agree on "something above 2 GBX" for now and, as always, wait and see how it plays out? :)

Which would be a something around £56.5m market cap which does not sound excessive to me at this point.

Hm, that's an interesting idea from a financial perspective but it would certainly not be a positive signal for the tidal stream industry. At least it would have a weird ring to it that the company with the world leading tidal stream project not only sells off their tidal business, but also the energy park. Can't say that it would sound like a song of trust to me.

I guess that really depends now on how much one wants to believe in the viability of MeyGen. Why sell it, if it'll become a 400MW tidal stream array that generates energy and money? Why buy it if that's an unlikely case?

My sympathy for getting annoyed by frustrated investors is very limited. A lot of people lost a lot of money on that company.

I'm quite confident that those people are 1000 times more annoyed, if not much much more, by the performance of their investment so far.

Dealing with investors comes with the territory I'd say.

Thank you.

I really liked that presentation because in hindsight, that's what we observed as long time investors.

To me, he's not only saying the things he said about the business. He also said, that we can expect the silence to be over.

I'll say this: I'm not sad that I kept averaging down when we were around 1 GBX ...

In other words.. I'd be surprised if we stay at 2 GBX or get lower. This simply wouldn't make any sense to me..

Well yes. At this valuation a 2x happens really fast. Double that again and we are at £64m or ~9 GBX

Imo it's not unrealistic to expect 4 to 8 GBX. More if people see much more opportunities ahead.

Just trying to guess that value. Now with that asset bump and revenue incoming in the future, I just can't see this company below £25m. So £25m is the minimum in my eyes but even that might be a stretch. My guess is that we have a chance to settle between £25m and £50m market cap this year.

Last time Uskmouth had an impact, the share price went up to 34 GBX iirc and analysts rated the price at 64 GBX.

However, since then the number of shares have doubled and BESS might not compare with the prospects the conversion might have had.

Any sane rating is likely to be sub 30 GBX and we all know that would be a stretch at this point in time. SAE is not a £160m company at the moment.

£50m seems realistic imo.

Looking at the past, the SP never jumped over just a few days. Somehow it always took one or two weeks for the SP to reach it's new high.

That's just an observation I noticed in the past. Not saying this is currently happening again but I sure hope so.so yes.. somewhere close to 10 GBX or above would be very welcome.

I understand, Strangy.

I'm not expecting SAE to go near that valuation anytime soon. This would mean a valuation close to £290m which is probably far away from what the company is currently worth.

But I struggle to believe SAE is only worth £6m to 12m so perhaps we can agree it must be somewhere in between of the £12m and £290m mark.

I guess the high rate is because there's a one off earnings event of £25m which is likely not going to last. So the question is what stable earnings can we expect currently from the company?

If it's 10% of that, we should, for example, expect a valuation of £23m. That's the 4 GBX range.

Up from 17 GBX ..

I know that this estimate isn't the whole picture but damn..

Estimates are always wrong but 2 GBX vs 48 GBX? That's a 24x bagger if we're just talking about a "fair" value.

How much weight would you guys put onto the simplywall.st estimate?!

Link:

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/capital-goods/aim-sae/simec-atlantis-energy-shares/valuation

@munin thank you. That's disappointing to be honest. As it was said, not really a gesture or trust right there..

When did they reduce their stake in Proteus? 🤔

Ufff.. not much time has passed and now I'm like.. let's hope Russia ans North Korea didn't just enable WW3 ...

Perhaps I should add that I'm talking £100m market cap at this point. Directors surely won't dilute brainless at this point and sell shares way below the company's value.

I don't think this is over yet. Wouldn't be surprised if we see the SP going higher over the next one or two weeks? And, at some point, construction will start. Lots of opportunities for the company to provide updates and I suspect that they'll gladly take them.

Let's hope they utilize the attention. Getting the share price up could mean that SAE would get access to that kind of funding as well. Not saying I'd welcome dilution but tbh after what we've been through with this stock, now finally seeing a real light at the end of the tunnel and a significant turn around (arguably) I'd actually not mind to see the company profiting from regained trust and make use of the market to fund their projects.

About time tbh. I felt, for a long time, that SAE is really flying under the radar. It still does, given their current market cap but... I might not have been to far off with my estimate that Uskmouth is an asset around £40m or more which would mean SAEs debt isn't as significant as it seems. Anyways, the company deserves more attention on many levels.