Member Info for mister_tidal

To add: that's 300% and it's actually not SAE that needs to prove that, but Proteus..

Also: This website is a pain in the butt on mobile

To

I don't want to be that guy, but, there's another side you left out imo.

The money SAE can make with CfDs is public money. This money will never result in any actual profit for the company until scale and reduced cost make TSE competitive.

If you buy SAE today, you'll not see a single penny in profits because that money will have to be re invested until you can build more turbines for less money until you can do that without governmental funding. That's when you reach the point where the company can make more money than what you have to put into.

SAE has to prove that it can do that. Lowering turbines alone won't suffice. These turbines have to become cheaper. A lot cheaper.

We need to close the relative gap to wind and solar. £50 vs £198 /MWh (all rounded grossly) +400% isn't going to cut it.

All eyes will remain on that number and the question if SAE can follow a trajectory that says: We can truly be, not just theoretically, competitive.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64fa0473fdc5d10014fce820/cfd-ar5-results.pdf

NAV should only improve by the amount of interest SAE does not have to pay in the future. As you said, everything might already ne priced in including the fact that Uskmouth/MeyGen might be worth less than what it is on the books hence the market cap is below the book value.

NAV to increase required the company to be able to generate a reliable ROI on their own merits without millions of funding. Any insane valuation would reflect speculation until then.

So, what the company is worth can be answered by "What are my returns in 5 years if I bought the company today and sold it then?" and the answer is "nobody knows/seems to know, maybe nothing".

Perhaps this is what could be a setup for the "mother of all corrections" that Tim Cornelius was talking about before he left the company.

Negative. Not like that. Compare it to a stock like AFC Energy.

SAE is simply a dead stock at the moment.

Other stock exchanges: Stutgart, Frankfurt, Gettex

I can't shake of the thought that the stock itself is basically in a come.

How else can you explain such a spread? I've said it in the past and I still believe that there's just plenty of retail investors who never sold their shares and who are still sitting it out as well as some day-traders who, occasionally, manage to ramp up the stock a few pence on some minor news. Just enough to pat themselves on their back for having forseen a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Not that this fact changes anything.

All I want to highlight is that I believe that the day this spread disappears from exchanges other than the London stock exchange it'll only mean two things: SAE went somehow off the market or finally got a much higher valuation based on their fundamentals.

But as is stands today, the stock is not tradeable anywhere except the london stock exchange. You literally have situations like €0.005/€0.015 [ask/bid] which, imo, really says a lot.

But let's see. Speaking of fundamentals, SAE should be able to pay off almost all their debt thanks to Uskmouth. As such, their current market cap is perhaps really an under-valueation?

Do I hear complaints about spread?

https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/en/products/equities/stuttgart/a1xezf-simec-atlantis-energydi

Thanks for posting!

Https://www.cfdallocationround.uk/news/allocation-round-6-opens

A previous update states

"SAE is working to achieve the CFD timeline, which will result in the Milestone Delivery Date being achieved in Q1 2024 and financial close later in that year."

But we didn't get an update yet, did we?

Link: http://simecatlantis.com/sae-achieves-milestone-in-bess-project-delivery/

I think SAE has potential to surge immensely, given some proper news on BESS and MeyGen/CfD. Until then, there's probably nothing they can make public that won't do much for the valuation at this point. It's all or nothing imo. If tidal has a future, the £5m valuation will easily turn into a £50m valuation which is, at this point, a 10x ...

I'd love to get some news too but frankly, I'd prefer bombastic news over meaningless news that do not do much for the valuation currently.

Can't get used to a market cap of just £5.5m - I'd everyone of us took a decent loan we could basically buy this company- if it really goes for £5.5m.

ATES was sold for £0.5 iirc.

According to simplywall.st, SAEs book value is £10m so that's a 2x ..

It's so weird.

Cute.

Stuttgart, Baader Bank and gettex have over 300% spread.

My friend has sent me this today:

https://www.reddit.com/r/SimecAtlantisEnergy/s/xGbLGP2qXQ

I understand. Well, I agree that things turned around a bit for SAE, and for now they seem fine, but it's still really challenging for them. As you mentioned, market conditions aren't paritcularly easy as well right now.

That being said, and all positive development acknowledged, in the end any investor wants to see some returns and as it stands today, SAE has a long way to go here until it can prove to generate a positive cash-flow without relying on public money.

Anybody looking for an explanation of why the market cap is where it stands today, I'd say the explanation is rather evident.

Not saying things can't turn around drastically though.

Should tidal energy gain serious traction in the upcoming years, SAE is going to have good cards, given the experience they and the people at Proteus have by now. If I weren't already in, and wanted to bet on tidal stream energy, SAE is still the best bet imo.

Well, I didn't intend to be negative here. But it's. A fact that the company has a lot of debt and uncertainty in their baggage. That's a fair explanation for the current share price. Tidal remains expensive and until SAE can make a profit, some money will have to flow into repayments and interest. Whether or not there is hope for tidal remains speculation and the book-value market cap tells as that, at least for now, the market does not have a lot of confidence.

I believe that this could change once MeyGen and BESS are on track. But I only tried to explain the low market cap after all.

I have no price target for SAE but would love to hear some (with an explanation if possible).

The market cap sits at the book value because that's all you get if the company files for bankruptcy which it almost did. And now it's only alive because of the mercy (or desperation) of their creditors. Until they can prove that they can produce positive cash flow and avoid getting destroyed by their debt, there is little to no hope for SAE. On top of that, it is highly dependent on large sums being granted from the public. It's highly political on top of the fact that there is no prove that tidal is viable in larger scale and/or whether it can outperform other sources for energy.

We all "hope" that SAE will succeed here but there's so much uncertainty and debt.. without getting things in order no one would place anything else than play money on this stock right now.

Even if things started to look slightly better recently, there's still a long way to go.

Their debt is crippling and their market cap does not really allow to raise money either and now they need £100m (my guess) for the next phase.

So yeah, it's tough times for SAE.

Not trying to be negative here but I guess these are the facts.

It's actually pretty obvious why the share price is where it is today..