Member Info for mister_tidal

Let's hope he was heard that day.

But let's also not forget that we reduced our stake in Proteus.

Are we talking tidal or tidal stream? Huge difference.

Wouldn't be the first time the market did the complete opposite of what I expected. I'd assume this to go to 3 or 4 GBX in the next few weeks so prepare to scoop up shares at 1.2 GBX 🤣

All jokes aside, I think SAE might simply not have any visibility at the moment. On one hand they might have to deliver a few milestones in order to gain trust and visibility on the other hand.

Sitting at 3.15 GBX on average I finally see an end at the end of the tunnel with my 498k shares.. of course I now regret not having purchases more below 1 GBX but then again.. I was at 17 GBX at some point.

I'm stunned that we're still below 3

Damn and I had an order at 1.5 GBX placed but it just never came back down

Are they paying from their own pocket or is this part of their long term incentive? 🤔

* take away £50m of debt

They got almost £20m for the first 230MW? If we take that 4x we talk £80m (total) for Uskmouth. Not sure what I missed here but can someone confirm that this would mean SAEs assets should be higher than their current debt? That's not reflected in their last report. Did they value Uskmouth conservatively?

If I take away £40m of debt then SAE would stand at 4.2 GBX with Uskmouth alone plus whatever MeyGen etc is worth. So this 7.something valuation does not sound too high. If we assume SAE can achieve all this, and I have to say I am rather confident that they will, then SAE is a pretty descent bet at this point.

Am I missing something here? Why are we still just at 2 GBX 😅

I'll buy you a car if we get there within 12 months

Much obliged

Paywall unfortunately. What's the gist?

Hm, it's not a completely unfair assessment but perhaps a shallow one. To say SAE wasn't risky at this point would be a lie. However, he didn't really look at the change that happened since the lowest lows and he's also not getting into the opportunities ahead. Most importantly, he's not acknowledging that Uskmouth is covering most of the debt. Not to mention our CfDs..

So.. perhaps it's a sober first glimpse at the company but, as I said, a shallow one.

All in all, I find it hard to believe that SAE can go down from here. Long term wise.

Even without MeyGen, at the moment Uskmouth is SAE. Tidal is currently not playing a big role. It's a potential big thin in the future, but overall, SAE could survive without it.

As such, it might be fair to say that SAE could really be a good investment. I don't want to jinx anything, but what can really go wrong at this point? BESS is very likely going to be a successful project. As it stands today, the position of SAE can literally only improve, am I wrong?

Without considering something unforseen, the worst case scenario appears to be "SAEs position only increases slightly".

Obviously, none of my estimates had a quite comparable foundation to the report, yet my guess would've been something between 4 GBX to 25 GBX anyways.

:D

Not only yours it would seem:

"We have used the farm out model for our central forecasts as this is not only the one that potentially leads to the highest valuation, but we also think this is the model most likely to be sought by the company as we see it as allowing revenue from early projects to be most efficiently recycled into new projects in line with the company’s strategy."

Thanks. I'll give it a read as soon as I can. Pretty busy atm.

Hm, it's possible that I'm falling victim of my own (wrong) assumptions.

I didn't think there was much to read between the lines because I thought the strategy is more or less clear.

But I admit, I was also wondering why they separated the debt of the group and MeyGen. Maybe because they wanted to print a nicer number? Or, and please someone correct me here, maybe it's to show that MeyGen is a separate entity. So, MeyGen may default but it wouldn't mean that the group goes under with the project in that case?

MeyGen didn't get the attention in the report that one would've expected but then again: 2024 is the year for BESS and 2025 might be the one for MeyGen.

But just to state that question again: is it possible for MeyGen to go under without taking SAE down? 🤔

You think that's the end of it? Even if the surge is over, with the next BESS update we'll be back at 2 GBX in no time.

If anything, that's really a time where one may want to take the risk and perhaps average down a little.

If I can get shares below 1.5 GBX I will purchase.

Comparatively speaking, Uskmouth BESS feels like a sure bet. If that's the case, as ramping as it may sound, then this is a "sure bet".

I've already averaged down enough so, I placed my bet already. It's been a long time since I'd have said that this might be a good time to buy.

Isn't that where Uskmouth comes in? We got £12m for a quarter of the capacity. If they can achieve that with the remaining ~750MW, shouldn't the debt be almost covered?