Member Info for mister_tidal

Hello you two :)

@OT but do we know if SAE has already planned additional milestones and what would be the next step? Is there a timeline? I think we may be rather confident that this appeal does not get rejected. Fingers crossed of course..

On the website: "All representations should be received not later than 29 July 2024, although Ministers may consider representations received after this date."

Do we know what's next?

Have to make a slight correction:

What I meant to say was even withour tidal, SAE should remain in the 4p to 8p range. Tidal can only increase SAEs value beyond that but like someone said previously: We're currently re-rating the company without even considering tidal.

Tidal can, however, be a nice kicker, provided things play out well.

Looking back, even SAE securing a CfD did not increase the valuation. At least not sustainably. Maybe this would be different today but I suspect that even doubling the budget for AR6 might not impact the SP right away. Maybe not even another contract win.

I'd suspect it would change once SAE is able to lay out a plan on how this will happen. How they finance construction and what the timeline will be. With clearly laid out milestones, getting more long term investments are much more likely and that's what can keep the SP up. Until then, the SP remains in the hands of daytraders I think.

That being said, none of this worries me in any way given the fact that the company is obviously under-valued currently. Imo it's not a question of "if" the value will go up. It's just a question of when.

The only thing that could potentially bring everything down is if BESS fails but how is that supposed to happen? The only thing that would keep us below 4p to 8p is if tidal goes down the drain. While this could happen, SAE has pretty much de-risked itself at this point. That's at least how it looks to me. So.. "tidal yes" means SAE go up.. "tidal no" means SAE will be valued by BESS.

Let's just say that, compared to the risk, the likelihood of success seems to have overcome the former.

My hope at this point is that the swing down that's probably coming now gives me an opportunity to add some more shares. I'm €18k in and I didn't intend to add more but I think I'll risk it and round it up to €20k.

I know this much about trading that there's two likely scenario's:

1) sp goes down to 1.8 - 2.2 GBX and then starts to zick zack between that and 3 GBX until we get good news or

2) sp goes down but stays a bit higher, does not hit the previous low. If that happens, we might see an upward trend which may bring us consistently higher. Don't ask me where to but higher.

That's without any news impacting of course. If we get meaningful positive news we'll surely see a hike.

All of this is, of course, real financial advice. Listen to me and do not do your own research.

It's almost scary to see Strangy in such a good mode. Almost 😜

🚀

You're a changed man at 3p.

What's going to happen at 4, 5, 6 .. 😅

This would be realy nice 🤞 but I'm a bit less optimistic there tbh

But he didn't confirm budget changes or anything? 1st of August is the deadline here.

@Mehmet but what about Proteus? Assuming SAE keeps their 10% there's surely some potential there if TSE becomes a thing in the UK.

Valid points. I didn't meant to say 20 GBX is "likely". Just meant to state that it could be possible during a frenzy. 4 to 8 GBX is the realistic scenario though. One RNS that adds some confidence and we're there imo.

Regarding Gupta: That's a good question as well. But we saw directors buy up shares in addition to them having long-term incentives which would vest them shares over time anyways. Why is the market not buying more? Knowing that SAE got £20m for 230MW of Uskmout?

> I think it will struggle to go pop

Depending on where one bought in, SAW already popped from 0.75-ish to almost 3 GBX. Not bad for some I presume. At a market cap of £4m to £6m back then, that wasn't particularly difficult. Jumping from £20m to £40m might be harder, but will that be the case if SAE announced one, two or three additional BESS projects giving them £20m to £60m? From what I know, that's basically what will happen sooner or later. So, even without Mey BESS or MeyGen I'd say, there's reason to be optimistic here.

Evening! :)

Thanks for the answer. I do see the pros and cons here: Having to offer to existing sharesholders first, and most of them are retail investors, would mean that a new investor might have to pay a higher price in case existing investors decide to jump in first. So, this could potentially repell a new investor? As an existing shareholder, of course, I am welcoming getting asked first. :D

Umm, is this concerning? I had some mixed feelings when I saw this. Should I be happy that resolution 8 didn't pass? Should I be happy that they even tried to pass this?

Help

That 20 GBX target is possible if there's significant news and some hype around it. That's a market cap of £144m. As Mehmet says, lots of companies out there with a significant higher valuation than SAE and less potential. Idk is SAE can be worth this mich but it doesn't take a lot of people to chip in here to get there.

Anything is possible.

Usk and BESS are the main drivers at the moment. Making sure the company regains health and can stabilize. What's currently getting priced in, I think, is Uskmouth and BESS projects as such. Most estimates there fall in the 4 to 8 GBX range.

Tidal, at least in my opinion, is a potential kicker that may or may not increase SAEs potential and value even further. Beyond 8 GBX so to speak. The probable reason why there's less talk at the moment about tidal is because we just have to wait and see how support will look like moving forward.

But the thing that drives the sp currently is the fact that Uskmouth and BESS are being valuated. At least that's what it looks to me. And imo it's looking good and it won't stop at 3p

I'm curious how long we'll keep up this streak of consecutive green days 😅 I'm still confident we can get to 4 GBX on our own (without an RNS) and from there, things may actually just start. I agree, the train has not left the station. It's merely getting into position ☝️

Similar story on my end. Somehow ended up spending €18k but the way things look now I'll keep it there.

I'm confident that there will be promising RNS that could bring the sp higher. There will be positive news regarding the construction of the first BESS project and we can rest assured that there will be additional ones coming etc. Not going to repeat the politics, MeyGen and Mey BESS part here but to sum it all up: lots of potential for positive news and well also very likely get another CfD soon.

If there's a drop or sell off, depending on how low the sp goes, I might even try to get some more shares but it's difficult for me because I cannot trade on the London exchange..

We're all changed men (and maybe women idk) 😅

It's indeed nice to see that it appears the SP reaches new highs. Relatively speaking of course.

Been waiting for the occasional sell off, there's always going to be some days where people take profits. But I'm confident that this train stops closer to 4 GBX than 2 GBX. Not final, but perhaps even just short term until a positive RNS gives further reassurance.

Speaking of such..

I'm not sure if we get lucky with an increase in CfD budget so let's wait for the next round here.

But what about BESS? What's the next step? There were no objections so far. What will be the next step and RNS we should expect here?

I'm also eager to learn about the remaining capacity at Uskmouth getting utilized

Thank you!

I like to compare stuff. One half of our entire roof hosts a 10 MW PV installation which delivered 55 KWh on a very hot day. That's 1.67 MWh per month. An efficiency of 23%. Got some shadows and clouds during the day.

With 675 MWh we'd have 30.7% efficiency, assuming 3 MW are operating at the moment.

But that's ALWAYS the case. Whether the wind blows or not. Whether the sun shines or not. We get this kind of energy throughout the entire year.

Is it possible to get all historical data for MeyGen?