Member Info for mister_tidal

We're still on the fast line, right?

The sealed bids should start on 31st of May.

https://www.cfdallocationround.uk/ar6-timeline

Does anybody know if that's the case still?

TL: What do you mean? GPTs market cap estimate is £36m to £81m. That's a 7.1 GBX to 16 GBX price target range.

Not that I would consider GPTs reasoning as reasonable 😅

I don't need an opinion if I can a ChatGPT 😂

Estimating the market capitalization (market cap) of Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) based on the positive implications of the Uskmouth battery storage project involves several factors:

1. **Revenue Potential**: The 230MW battery storage facility could generate significant revenue once operational. Battery storage facilities can have high returns due to the increasing demand for grid stability and renewable energy support.

2. **Investor Sentiment**: Successful transition to renewable energy projects often leads to improved investor sentiment. If SAE can demonstrate progress and potential profitability from the Uskmouth project, it could attract more investors.

3. **Debt Management**: Revenue from the project could help SAE manage its £60 million debt more effectively. Improved debt management would reduce financial risk and potentially increase market valuation.

4. **Market Comparisons**: Comparing SAE to similar companies in the renewable energy sector that have successfully transitioned from traditional energy sources to renewables can provide a benchmark for potential market cap growth.

Given these factors, if we assume the project significantly boosts SAE’s revenue and improves its financial stability, we could see a substantial increase in its market cap.

### Hypothetical Market Cap Calculation:

1. **Current Market Cap**: £6 million

2. **Revenue Impact**: Suppose the battery storage project could bring in an annual revenue of around £10-£15 million once fully operational, which is a conservative estimate for a 230MW facility.

3. **Valuation Multiples**: Renewable energy companies often trade at higher revenue multiples due to growth potential. A multiple of 3-5 times revenue is common for such projects.

#### Potential Increase in Market Cap:

- If the project adds £10-£15 million in annual revenue, and we apply a multiple of 3-5 times this revenue:

- Revenue Impact: £10 million * 3 = £30 million to £15 million * 5 = £75 million

- Adding this to the current market cap: £6 million + £30 million to £75 million = £36 million to £81 million

Thus, **SAE’s market cap** could potentially rise to the range of **£36 million to £81 million**, assuming the project meets its revenue projections and positively influences investor sentiment.

### Important Considerations:

- This estimate assumes successful project execution and revenue generation.

- Market sentiment and other external factors like regulatory changes, competition, and broader market conditions will also play crucial roles.

- These are hypothetical estimates and actual market cap can vary.

In summary, the Uskmouth battery storage project has the potential to significantly improve SAE's market cap, potentially increasing it to between £36 million and £81 million, contingent on successful implementation and positive market reception.

Thanks OT!

The first one is very interesting.

The good thing here is that things have changed: the ring fenced budget is a big win. But as they say, investors want more guarantees to at least get a reasonable risk/reward ratio which currently is not in favor for tidal.

Getting a guarantee budget over half a decade, as suggested, would probably make a huge difference.

Who would ever attempt to scale if there's no green lights for that?

Thanks OT :)

Is there a protocol or something? Would like to know what was said.

Anybody watching that stock? From zero two hero. That's what I hope to happen with SAE at some point..

Last year's CfD does not even list wave energy.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64fa0473fdc5d10014fce820/cfd-ar5-results.pdf

My question is if $75/MWh is just an exaggeration or a lie, or if that's a true statement.

Wouldn't be ideal if wave is able to compete in CfD auctions given the already rather modest ring fenced budget.

Did wave just overtake tidal stream?

https://youtu.be/3X2PqKKPb48?si=qM9t0LpbmXdoqnYm

What's your position, if the question is allowed?

I'm not sure why I bought 45k shares this week

But these are the facts. Over a decade of articles like this have brought us to celebrate deployments below 100MW. We need 10-times that, 1GW to go below £100/MWh although today, thanks to inflation, we need more than that.

Until we see actual commitment and money driving significant deployments all this is is more of the same.

Yes, we got CfDs now but we also sold the tidal division for £0.5m which is something we don't want to forget here. Perhaps SAE was forced to do so but let's just keep that in mind.

I'm not trying to convince you of anything here. I care the same if you will, but it just has to be said that there's plenty of material that state the exact same. Growing interest, huge potential and what not. What's missing is the money to make it a reality.

Articles and surveys like that are pretty much regulars. I won't even bother to compile a list of such articles because they are easily to find..

We are also 95% under-valued according to Simplywall.st

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/capital-goods/aim-sae/simec-atlantis-energy-shares/valuation

But why am I still not feeling it?

.. how it's just not getting up.

Don't get me wrong, there's currently nothing really to expect I guess. But I'm still disappointed. Or impatient?

Regular monthly updates would still be nice. I find it hard to believe that there is nothing to report. Really?

That's what my statement implied. I never said this money ceased to exist. But that it may cease to be mine.

We're below £6m. It's pretty obvious that there's no demand for this stock and at this price... it's also kinda obvious that institutions don't care about this company.

As I've suggested in the past.. there's probably around 1000 people around who own a few shares of SAE.

The good news is that it can't get much lower. I've already accept the fact that it's not unlikely I might lose my money ok this company.

It's in Graham's hands now.

Will CfD money be enough to get this sector going?

Got to agree with munin here.

Quite some time ago I did all the math and came up with some numbers back then. I think 27% capacity factor was what I came up with. Not bad but not great either.

Maybe this will improve and economics at scale may change all that.

I'd like to know at what point a reduction in capacity deployed will become visible in the LCOE. Simec lowered the cost from whatever to £300 to below £200 / MWh so far but now we're back above it.

Yes, still without the scale but here is where CfDs come into play.

If SAE can reduce the cost per MWh as the industry promises, then perhaps tidal has a chance.

It really depends on that and only that

It's all good but TSE does not eat up valuable land isn't an eye sore. What we don't know if it can compete in cost.

https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/renewable-energy-solar-climate-targets-b2529461.html

Wake me up at 10 GBX