Member Info for Mirasol

10 Jan 2019 - note the classic "equivalent" flow rate..................

Balcombe Field Discovery - post test analysis of 7-day well test suggests high probability continuous oil with a low watercut can be produced

The Balcombe Field Discovery is considered to be in the ‘sweet spot’ of England’s Weald Basin given the 568 metre thickness and highest maturity of the Kimmeridge Layers.

On 2 October 2018 the Company announced the results of the completed horizontal well test of the Balcombe-2Z’s Kimmeridge Layer as having naturally flowed at 853 bopd equivalent, not including 22.5% water. A second flow period was undertaken with the well flowing naturally at 1,587 bopd

equivalent, not including 6.6% water.

Post-test analysis of the recovered water demonstrated levels of salinity significantly higher than any regional trend, indicating a strong probability that injected brine rather than formation water was being produced from the site’s Micrite Layers. Given the mandated length of the short testing sequence, the

Company was not able to remove what it now believes is a limited amount of unrecovered brine from previous activities at the site.

I an also remember some amazing flow rate numbers being bandied around

"Don’t forget the various positive comments from ANGS over recent days and weeks."

And the last time the new COO was on the board he tweeted about Brockham

Jonathan Tidswell-Pretorius Retweeted Jonathan Tidswell-Pretorius

Well flowed naturally even with water which is much heavier than oil dominating flow. Rates increased all the way through. Confident we can get this going nicely, isolating the water is not rocket science. Think we should have perfed in smaller zones to begin with"

and they RNS'd

.Managing directors Statement:

"I am very pleased with the oil analysis clearly confirming Kimmeridge oil at Brockham. The water zone is obviously an unexpected hindrance but, with natural flow to surface and evidence of oil, we remain quietly optimistic of achieving commercial success at Brockham. Brockham in combination with Balcombe could be transformational for the Company and oil production in the Weald."

The real killer is that the various forecasts have been so horribly wrong.

The original CPR had production over 9mmscfd for something like 5 or 6 years. Rebased to actual start of production that's late 2027. The 2023 CPR P90 (ie there was a 90% of making it) was circa 9 mmsfd to start 2026 and then 5 to start 2027. Actuals show it only achieved over 8 for 3-4 months, it's been below 6 for over a year and under 4 and heading down to 3 or under now.

Any financing or hedges based on those forecasts was going to be a disaster.

"Iran votes to close Straights of Hormuz."

where is this news story - there is nothing I can see on any of the main news outlets

"what is clear is that flows are stable"

they are declining in a stable fashion. They are currently less than half the numbers seen immediately after the 2023 sidetrack and it's possible to draw a straight line decline curve through them. It really is very predictable now.

The compressor, what ever it cost, does not seem to have achieved anything long -term.

09-Jun-25 0.1218

10-Jun-25 0.1254

11-Jun-25 0.1120

12-Jun-25 0.1165

13-Jun-25 0.0857

14-Jun-25 0.0923

15-Jun-25 0.1090

16-Jun-25 0.0953

17-Jun-25 0.1062

18-Jun-25 0.1153

19-Jun-25 0.1141

20-Jun-25 0.1142

21-Jun-25 0.1070

Rolling 30 day average = 0.1109 mcmpd

This has now fallen back to pre-compressor installation levels.

Ripley - clearly nonsense - see whatthis super suave, techno-speak investor wrote:-

"Just seen after today's buy there was a disappointing court ruling on 3rd June"

What real investor buys THEN checks the news from 2 weeks ago?

He can't just deramp he also has to tell us he's bought more - a fantasist at best -

Yet

things seem to change when mega bucks flow in

beware of jet-loads of finance people from the City of London coming to assist them invest

The Falklands already has one of the best offshore tax regimes in the world for oil companies - a point made over and over by RKH and Argos in the last 15 years. I'm certain it's in various of their presentations over the years.

My guess is that they are trying to make sure they DON'T have to change it for a long time (like the Dutch and unlike the UK) - for a tiny country they won't want to keep having to waste people's time on it. So they will be trying to nail down everything from early exploration to abandonment etc etc.

FIG can read the papers as well as people on here - they KNOW Navitas are moving ahead and need no further incentivisation.

"Thats what our UK Govt has done to British Business."

No its lack of regulation that allows characters like..well the list is very long .. to run lifestyle companies on AIM

Which FPSO - I'd agree if you mean Shenandoah but not the one for SL

The outfit that were going to farmin to save us?

Look at today's RNS from them...................... a

Take a look at todays PPP RNS to see the depths ahead

It's a grim thought that , of all the UK onshore oilers that arrived on AIM, UJO is , currently , one of the least worst.

The fading away of UKOG is now surpassed by the utter shambles over at ANGS

EDR have gone, and STAR seemed becalmed

Alans55,

All our prayers and thoughts will be desperately needed when the next set of news is announced.

"Why has RH resigned? The explanation was not provided in this morning's RNS."

Given the way AIM CEO's cling on like limpets in the face of the most awful disasters I think we can reckon this must a be something absolutely dreadful

"The refinancing of the company has quite a lot to do with Trafigura, "

yeah but its not them praising RH - it's his old mate Zielicki.

If he's so good and so important to Trafigura why has he quit/been fired in the middle of the "transformational deal"??

Ovets - companies who operate almost all of their ventures have serious issues with being non-operator. You go from having almost total control to having very little say at all. SL will be a Navitas operation and they will tell RKH and any other JV partner how it's going to be (as they appear to be telling the FI Govt). That's very hard to take when you're used to calling the shots yourself.

There are other people around who are quite happy to be non-operators at 20% interest. Much more likely to be one of those.

"Don't think you would write that if you thought relations with Trafigura were severely strained."

that post was from Zielicki - has nothing to do with Trafigura - and it cost nothing. A CEO leaving in the middle of a so-called transformational deal? When did that last happen Ocelot??