Member Info for Mirasol

"Work has started today on the coil tubing fix, nearly as good as an RNS."

RJT - can you post a link to this information?

BAZY - RE: RE: RE: UKOG price prediction 01/11/2019 (Closing 16.30pm)26 Aug 2019 18:43
I’m going for 8.25

When the first trade of the day is someone's dumping 2.5 mm shares at the bottom end of the spread - followed by a steady 1 mm plus every hour or so... no doubt finishing up with 3 or 4 mm at or just after close.......

According to PCS last week this could go on into late August - and that's assuming no more loans.

"like Mirasol are disingenuous, you only post negative facts!"

Regretfully WTT the FACTS are mainly negative - the positives are outweighed by the continued movement of the operations to the right and the knock-on effects of of the financing model they use.

By the way I try and correct errors on both sides - if you look down my first post today was correcting IBug's post re connected fractures

And for what its worth I see we have a new pessimist on board today - welcome Clarry!!

" have the assets to realise to achieve in the next couple of years."

In the next two years they may have drilled Dunsfold and the IoW - neither will be in production and both will probably need at least 1 appraisal well. With luck they will be producing at HH from the Portland and some Kimm - lets say 2000 bopd

That's not going to give them a mid-cap valuation I'm afraid - they'll be about the same as Igas £47mm

"check asset and fundamentals and ignore the trolls."

Yup - and take a look at the 3 month price chart ........................

Greta replaced by Joey??

IBUg

I think you're wrong here - the point is that a very large vertical section of the Kimm is connected by fractures - that includes the micrites or limestones AND the shale (which is the vast majority of the section). As it's connected all you need to do is to open up the hole opposite the limestones - these will flow better than the shales (unless you frac them). Oil flows from the limestones and is replenished via the fractures in the shales. Oil produced in the shales also will flow (Very slowly) into the fractures

We don't know how effective that replenishment is - and I 'd guess that is why they are taking so much time and spending n so much on analysing the Kimm data - pull too hard and you might bring in water into the limestones - better to keep rates modest until you know what is happening.

"Grid connection is covered by permitted development order 2015."

It is in deed but that's permission from the Planners - I meant there is no record of HHDL applying to THE GRID for a connection..........

"No crane needed. Its an easy fix imo.

Steptoes aka Greta One Post - a lot of people have spent a lot of time explaining that its far more complex than any crane can handle - it will cost more and take longer....................... it may be easy but it may not - no-one knows (other than you of course)

yes - but most of the people who have bought (and sold) into Wytch Farm (after it was brought onto production) have been offshore players looking for a low cost "annuity" to provide a steady, dependable income stream.

IIRC Egdon bought Encore's onshore stuff plus Ceres way back - they paid in shares and Encore got a place on the board. premier bought out the whole of Encore in 2011? and just took over the seat - and kept their interest (god alone knows why - maybe they like a day out to Odiham every so often). Petrichor (ex HEYCO) own over 30% of the shares but don't have a seat on the board - but they go back to the late 90's with EDR I think
Premier bought into Encore

and cranes and Coiled tubing - and God help you when the rig arrives cost-wise.........

"On nearly £5,000,000 per year they should be self-sustaining, shouldn’t they?"

they don't average 230 bopd over 365 days right now - its probably 50% - 75% up time over the whole test.

They have to pay for the test gear, the trucks, the processing and handling.....

Logging tools are incredibly expensive - a single run is often over £ 100,000. The you have all those trucks going to and from Aberdeen or Bridlington with kit - about £ 1000 a day each..... You have a herd of environmental, planning , HSE consultants working on the IoW and Dunsfold. About a dozen people in the office (and they aren't on minimum wage), security, lawyers ( at around £ 800 an hour ) to sue the swampies etc. Consultants in the USA looking at the results, labs constantly testing oil , gas & water........ and then you get to the Nomads and other low life................

"I can't understand why peaple keep on about HH2Z his priority should be getting HH1 licenced and into production"

HH1 is on production - sorry "Extended Well test" - but from an income point of view it's the same thing - OGA seem happy to let them pump away - now well over 18 months. To get a Field Development Plan approved they will need to include HH2z - and that is where the y aim to get much higher rates from the Portland. HH1 seems to produce 200-300 bopd from the Portland and maybe the same from the Kimmeridge. HH2z should produce over 800 bopd from the Portland

HH1 dual flow probably will produce enough to cover their costs but not enough for future operations at HH or anywhere else. They need HH2z to get free of the CLN funding and into stable RBL or similar

"This may have been posted before but does anyone know how many shares Tellurians have left? have checked rns's and website does not have them as significant shareholders, are they sold out?"

No one has a clue - they (or rather UKOG) are supposed to file a TR1 return as they drop through various thresholds but Tellurian been very remiss in the past about keeping people (including UKOG apparently) informed. Not much anyone can do about it unfortunately

Might be an update in their Annual SEC return - which I think is due next month...............

A start would be to generate enough income from HH1 to cover the costs of the operation. They could reduce the amount of CLN's going forward and begin to re-build confidence. Once they have the water fixed, a CPR and an approved FDP confidence may start to return.

As ever we keep drifting to the right - almost 2 months since the RNS mentioned water for example - and every day a few million more shares are dumped killing any enthusiasm.

Thanks IBUG - I'm not on twitter and couldn't be bothered to scroll through all of DoD to find an image. That unit came down from Aberdeen IIRC?

"Surely worth a question submission on the IQ's on their website."

They'll just say they don't comment on other companies affairs I'm afraid...............

EDR have that Holy Grail of AIM companies - a solid core of LTH's. The problem is that that acts as a total damper to liquidity and the pump & dump brigade. The shares only move on real news - if you want day-today activity go to UKOG or UJO .

I think Egdon have a decent portfolio and will, in time, make me some more money but I'm not kidding myself that they are an embryo BP.................

"Or maybe coiled tubing. Lets hope its one of these easier options."

CT is normally considered a useful replacement for a rig for some operations. CT can run in horizontal wells, and even "uphill" and it can get round tighter bends than rig based tubing operations. It can't take serious amounts of weight or stress as drill pipe can tho.

One problem onshore UK is that there is no CT unit easily available - the demand is very low and occasional so they have to mobilise the kit from Aberdeen. It's not a small set of kit either http://industryarcblog.com/coiled-tubing-market-share-size-analysis/coiled-tubing-market/ gives you some idea of what size it takes up.

It's normally slightly cheaper than a w/o rig but once you factor in mob/demob onshore UK it's a wash IIRC