Member Info for Mirasol

"From Foth. Coiled tubing is down the well, which means we are on our way."

Looks good - 24 hours to clean up the hole then run the PLT tomorrow/Sunday

Should start running the fix Tues onwards..............

all less than £ 500 trades......

1. "I wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend"

2. "The train is leaving the station"

3. " We can expect 2p next week"

4. "This must attract a Major"

I see 5 million at 0.62p.....

"Thanks. It's like an expert witness?"

Sort of a cross between an Expert Witness and an academic - they are paid a fee and aren't allowed to have any "result based remuneration" - the best ones - Gaffney Cline, D&M, etc are totally independent, been around for years and VERY rigorous. Then there are those who do other work - Schlumberger, for example who aren't considered quite so blue-chip as it's not their main income.

You need to watch for the ones where are company based in London say goes to Perth Australia for a N Sea CPR from a small consultancy - or a Perth oil company comes to London for an Australian CPR .... that suggests they've hawked it round to the lowest bidder. A Blue chip outfit is impervious to pressure from the oil company - a 2 man band in Alice Springs...????? Maybe willing to shade their opinion a bit.......

Competent Perosns Report

A third party independent (more or less) technical report on the amount of oil and gas down there and how much they think it will produce.

See http://gaffney-cline-focus.com/the-competent-persons-report

No bank will lend without one of these in place as an absolute minimum

"what we need is a surprise CPR "

Any new CPR will have to wait until they get some results post fixing the water - and I don't mean a couple of days of results - the reservoir engineers will want a couple of weeks minimum (otherwise it will be on the one hand and the other hand - more hands than a Hindu God). It'll then take 2-4 weeks to re-run all the reservoir models and maybe 2 weeks wrangling over the exact wording......................

The remorseless decline since end September 2019 seems to be flattening out at around 0.6 - 0.625

PCS calculated the current overhang would be gone by September 2020 (no-one argued with him IIRC)

No chance of a significant rise until they tell us what the rates are once all the work is finished

4.5 million in large trades at 0.61 this morning

Whoever it is seems to be happy to shovel shares out as long as the price is over 0.60 - that suggests they already know how much they're going to make as long as it stays over 0.6 - Riverfort or YA I suppose............

" Almost guaranteed a Monday RNS. I expect it will be to report that the fix has been completed."

Doubt it - I reckon 12-14 days after rig or CT arrival so end of next week I suspect - assuming all goes well..................

"So 5p _ 10p short term. Looking forward to the recovery back to fair value. Hopefully the oversold lull has ended now and bringing HH2z on stream will be the catalyst for the market re-rate. The value is there but difficult to say when and what will make the market come back to the 2017 days. It'll happen, just not sure when."

Not sure when but definitely "short term" - is that a week, month or year???

"I think the downside of a bad result is potentially very serious for UKOG"

It really would have to be a catastrophe tho to wipe out the company - even with a couple of wells producing (say) a total of 500 bbl a day and WITH water cut - they'd still be doing better that Egdon for example.

"Surprised by the lack of SP reaction to the current work onsite. Much of the shareholder goodwill has been decimated and nothing less than a quick fix and string flow rates will do now. GLA"

Absolutely correct - UKOG's credibility was very badly damaged by Broadford Bridge - the market will only react on firm results not forecasts

JA51 - if a JOA creates a "corporate connection" then every oil company in the world is connected to each other - a JOA is the standard (and the current basic version was produced by the British National Oil Company in the late 1970's) which is used worldwide as template for oil & gas exploration and production. Everyone from EXXONMobil to ANGS use it day in day out...............

".68 paid "

Bit selective Mullins also 0.6 paid

A better guide is 0.64 1,208,786

No - the water injector is to provide pressure support for the Upper Portland - they hadn't encountered water when they submitted their plans so they were faced with pressure issues over time (years not months). The water would have had to come from a current well (such as the Lower Portland Sands in HH1) or a new drill.

They still have to do this unless they start producing water from a production well. The current work is to try and avoid that at all costs.

However they now DO know where they can find decent amounts of water for pressure support when they need it - so it's an ill wind etc etc

from the recently published HHDL accounts:-

The planning consent gives permission to produce oil over a period of 25 years at up to 3,500 barrels of oil per day from a total of six wells within the Portland and Kimmeridge oil pools, including the existing Horse Hill-1 ("HH-1") and the forthcoming HH-2/2z horizontal well. Consent also includes permission to drill one water reinjection well to help maximise oil recovery. All existing and future wells will be drilled from within the existing 20 x 15 metre concrete pad. No further drilling sites beyond Horse Hill are required.

Good news - - I reckon they should have it done in 10 -12 days...

But note they are still producing only from the Portland in HH1 according to the RNS - so the dual completion is going to be in March I guess

" They certainly cant sell then at today's price as they will drop the sp again and make what 10% if they are lucky."

But they're making a guaranteed percentage way above what they'd get investing their money in another bank - and it's 10% over a short period - which annualised is a lot larger

Just thank God ANGS don't have the overhang that UKOG have - that's been calculated (by one the rampers for heavens sake) to last until September and that's without any further issue of shares they've just got approval for.......

On the 20th Jan the stock closed at 0.775p

it's now 0.60p mid price

Can any of the "positive thinkers" tell us why ?