Member Info for Mirasol

I think the last Corporate Update was in November 2018

TrollHunter2 Posts: 1,170 Price: 0.16 No Opinion 12/10/20

RE: Buys flagged as sellsToday 11:39
Trolls busy this morning now they've got down off the rig and let UKOG get on with reperfing and increasing OIL flow rate out of HH-1. With the new set-up and the pumps working to their specified capacity we could expect to see a production rate of 500+ bopd by then end of this week.

" As usual please don't post the details here so as not to give the trolls the heads up."

"Don't tell him Pyke!" :))))))

" you do not get the likes of Jim Ratcliffe and INEOS investing in areas with no future"

hats the INEOS that poured money into onshore UK fraccing and who effectively closed down the whole operation last year then?

Heid - I compliment you all the time on your ramping and your ability to disappear just as it all goes pear-shaped.

I have no idea who Panther is but he/she obviously knows a great deal about exploration and the onshore UK.

"I was referring to was when ukog are "silent" you then make all sorts of assumptions, like everything has gone wrong"

because that's the way the smart money bets Ozzy - when UKOG had 2good news" you couldn't stop the RNS's, the interviews, the presentations - remember the viewing gallery at HH??.

When things started to go wrong... silence . And its not just UKOG - any AIM company does the same - look at Hur for example

So anyone with sense makes the connection SILENCE= BAD NEWS

Perhaps that's because the news form the UK Onshore has been almost totally bad for the last few years Heid. I won't bother to list the failures, delays, Council obstruction, lack of Govt Support and straight stupidity and bad management that has got us in the hole

You'r too busy ramping to notice I guess - first "uncle Steve" and now "David" - but you'll disappear from here just as you did from UKOG - overnight and no notice

And you Panther - your technical view is a beacon of light in the seas of opinion and wishful thinking on here

lets hope we see some progress for all the AIM oilers in 2021

Yes - its about time for further dilution

"The latest I heard about C Oil is that he’s being sued by his mate for a six figure debt and, hopefully, faces bankruptcy. "

2021 is looking better already!!

regretfully Croq Santa doesn't exist - I hate to break this news to you :))

If it's glass half full it's because that's the way it is with small oilers on AIM - they over promise and under deliver, year in, year out

And they are "supported" by people who desperately and pump the stock so they can play their day trading games .

I expect Q1 2021 to see massive pumping on UJO who seem to be the only outfit with any reasonable short term news flow. Assuming UKOG survive then we'll see Turkey pumped like hell - I hope it works as I need a 15 bagger to break even.......

A safe and better 2021 to everyone.

George Lucan HOPES he'll have the money by end January - but on what terms? He's already on his second set of (paid) hustlers to try and raise the cash whilst Saltfleetby drifts constantly to the right.

Wizz - as I see it the problem is that income from HH has never reached a level that covers the total costs at UKOG - if HH2z had added even 100 bopd on average they'd be OK.

In 2019 most people were comfortable with the idea that 400 ish bopd would see them in a cash neutral position and that a new CPR would allow some access to RBL. Over a year on that's not where we are - HH2z seems to have been a failure, there is no mention of a new CPR having even been commissioned and I don't see any massive reduction in costs in 2020 - IoW & Loxley are all costing cash in outside consultants and lawyers. Turkey will require a steady funding for a while

They're going to need more cash and they'll have to go back to Wonga loans again as RBL is not open to them - my real worry is that , like ANGS, they may have exhausted the appetites of even the shysters loan sharks. Unless they can see a way to pump and dump they won't want to lend.

"The answer to that question depends upon Angus and WSCC and re Balcombe."

Angus are hardly battering the door down to test Balcombe - they don't have the cash to do it for a start

I'm sure teh Portland has fractures but I doubt that's the main reservoir - its just a series of sandstone bands.

I seem to remember the reservoir maps were quite flat so it's no surprise that they're seeing some water - it was amazing they went so long without seeing any TBH.

The total silence on the Kimm really suggests its a dead duck here - and who would drill elsewhere for it after this experience & Broadford Bridge?

By end of September they'd produced according to the OGA around 33800 bbl of oil in total - if you plot the monthly totals you can see that by Easter 2022 they may be in tail end production and maybe ultimate recovery around 55 - 60,000 bbl total

Its hard to fit a decline curve to 7 points especially when you have no solid information on number of days

Earlier this year I looked at it and reckoned they might hit 100 bopd by Easter if they were unlucky and if they were unable to do anything. We know they did quite a lot of work recently but exactly what? No reports of an increase in tankers (other than the usual UU rubbish posts). water percentage seems to performing as you'd expect - a very gradual increase.

Without more production from HH2z I think even UKOG may be thinking they only have a one well field

Don't go there - what ever it is people like Chris oil and Daniel Levi are proven poison for small PI's

"Production opex is now advised at about $13 with a Brent Crude price of $51.80 . On the basis of opex at $13 & Brent crude at $51.80 how many BOPD production do UKOG need for HH1 to be robustly commercial?"

Wizz - a lot depends

Are they are paying Alba for their share? I hope not but given the squirrelly DL type deal in place they probably are.

Let's say UKOG have 85.635% So on their numbers (which may or may not include transport but we'll give them the benefit of the doubt) they're banking $51.8 - $ 13 = $38.8 per barrel gross, $ 33 a bbl net or almost exactly £ 25 a bbl at yesterdays rate

The problem is we don' know their corporate costs - I think they employ around 12 people so that's at least £ 500 a day (including tax, NI , pension etc) or £ 6000 a day so that's 240 bopd to cover costs - but not including external planning and legal consultants for the Iow etc either

Rule of thumb over the years is that a UK onshore field normally breaks even bat between 60 - 150 bopd -if they don't have to truck water but as has been pointed out before UKOG are expensive - their corporate costs are almost twice those of EDR some years

I'd say the field is making a small amount of money at over 200 bopd but not enough to cover their ongoing corporate outgoings. At 97 bopd it's not making money at all

Thanks IBUG - wouldn't it be nice if OGA (or even UKOG) told us how many days they were on production?

What is clear tho is that the water cut continues to slowly increase September 28.69% compared to zero in March and 23.78% in June - an increase averaging 1% per month