Member Info for minimil

Absolutely no way. My last drill was with PVR back in mid 2017. SP was between 15-18 p during the drill which gave PVT an MC of around 100 MM GBP. PVR had a farm in partner, Cairn. Unfortunately they did not hit the black stuff.
Up to Spud and depending upon news SP could be anywhere between 6-10p depending on excitement and those willing to ramp BPC death. If you are going to make predictions at least look at the newbie peers in the game to substantiate your claims. Question is if you are already invested or about to, do you have the patience to wait for the spud and then the 4 months to hit TD on top of that? COS is around 28% so COF is 72%. GLA.

@Bonum - A good call today from the Avacta board credit where it is due. A lot of folk now confident that BPC will spud its first well. It's been a long time coming.

@Int.. I'm sure I read in the 26 May RNS (drill contract..) they were still looking at ways to pay for the drill.

Happy to see sp double to 6p. Raise £15m through an open offer between 5-6p. Will fill the drill deficit so 100% funded with a contract.

@Bonum - Please don't buy BPC and put a curse on it. By some MMX PMSL- bye bye.

@CW25 - ODX CEO was on Sky News - I would think that is news.

@mysteryG - As stated in the recent RNS they will look to secure the remainder of the funds which will have less dilution to shareholders. Even a farm in is dilution but news of one does tend to give the SP a boost. Solid progress over the next 6-7 months for the spud is what we all want to see. Expect to see 20-25% dilution at some stage comparing current market cap with the deficit.

@cheng - I would love to swap places with you. I am stuck in London waiting for Malaysia to lower the drawbridge. Hardly anybody wears a mask here. 100 ish dead in Malaysia, 30000+ here. Say no more.

Merry Xmas

@C - fair enough but we are not modelling a reservoir Pn successful. Im an engineer and want a +/- 50% estimate. Either way I hope both you and Kbiz are near the mark.

@C - I think your low/med/high/cases are too extreme.
If you look at the profit per test to Avacta for your cases you are about $1, $5, and $13. So just on the profit per test your high low ratio is a factor of 13!
Below I have copied Kbiz post from 2nd May and he appears to have the right idea. You can adjust his numbers based upon recent news.
To try and get an accurate estimate price of the test I would guess it would lie between today's cost of a prego test and an HIV test which AS referenced in his webcast the other week. Thanks for your effort it deserved a reply.

Kbiz - copyright:

Taking another stab at the current valuation, and where this can go from COVID.

Assumptions:
- Fair value before COVID - £100m
- COVID testing requirements constant for 6 months minimum, 12 months maximum
- Successful vaccine eventually replace need for mass testing in 12 months
- Only adults tested
- 5% royalty for AVACTA - https://www.morse.law/news/setting-values-and-royalty-rates
- Additional market cap for covid = 2x 12 month earnings (based on the value of cash generated + derisking of future operations from this)

Variables:
- % of adult population tested
- % market share
- Cost per test
- Tests per adult

The case for £3:
- 7.7bn world population
- 3.85bn adults for testing
- 30% of adults regularly tested globally
- 1 test per week per adult = 26 tests min, 52 tests max
- Cost per test £2
- 10% market share
= £300m earning in 6 months or £600m in 12 months

Taking £300m earnings, x 2 = £600m + £100m pre-covid valuation = £700

@cautious - Kbiz did this 2 weeks ago and came up with 3 quid a share. Be interesting to see what you come up with based on more up to date information that we have now. Look forward to receiving your post. Better than 90% of the dross we get on this board.

nope. What's the point? It will be what it will be. Whether you are still in or out....well.... that's a different question. GL

Hi biz - nice curry.

@Sirius - Maybe most LTH's are close to their own cash in points. Sure, there may be a lot more mileage in this yet, especially with a minimum of 3 RNS's due in the next two weeks. But many of us are close to reaching the point where the risks outweigh the gains. Each to your own. Hopefully, I can buy a new set of golf clubs, play more often and break 100.

Not a surprise no RNS today - last trading day before the bank holiday when we know Avacta staff will be working hard. BooHoo mates can pile in.

South park PMSL Kbiz - such a close match.

@Green - they managed to give you an extra day hol I see.

Ah @Kbiz - nice to see you back. Do you still think your 3 quid estimate will come into fruition? I take it our friends are back in the loony bin after their weekend let out. We really could do with a +ve Cytiva update this week. What do you think?

@Vissain - 5% below the bid would have had you out of the game by now. my recollection over the past 3 weeks is that after RNS news share jumps to a new high then has drifted back within the hour, forms a low of the day followed by a small recovery.
It's a good share to scalp i.e. sell 20,000 after news and then buy back later in the day when it has fallen 10-15% off the high. If you look at the trades you can see many people do this. The risk of course if on a particular day it marchers on to a new high throughout the day but we have yet to see that since it has exceeded 80-90p. We all should have an exit strategy and I have mine which constantly gets revised depending on the news and other possible risks. If Cytiva can come up with the goods I believe @Kbiz's 3 quid sp is very likely but if we get the RNS stating delays we will tank unfortunately. So let's hope the news is good.