Member Info for minimil

I was happy to see my CERP holdings converted to BPC shares yesterday but the current MC is almost the same as that prior to the dilution. Seems the MC of CERP has not been added to it. TTF sell off obviously not helping but with the merger I would have expected to see the combined MC nearer 90-100 MM than the current 75.

I am not a keen advocate of charts on AIM because it's mainly news (and leaks of it) that move the SP. Most professional technical analysis is done on mid caps and above mainly because of the high volume and the lack of MMs.

As for Avacta - you have short term Covid news to look forward to and the longer term Cancer research. The fact that Covid is not going away has kept the SP where it is now otherwise we would be back below the placing price. The LFT has taken longer than expected IMO and I just hope it does exactly what it says on the tin when eventually it comes out. I was in this share in the low 20s for cancer treatment and I believe this is where AVCT will excel, albeit it will take time.

Starchild, ok noted. See what I can come up with at the weekend.

Hi Starchild, I will try and work out some numbers but there are several unknowns atm relating to the fixed costs of production assuming there is a commercial find from P1. Other factors are the quality of the reservoir itself. Sweet, no or low water cut, 35-40 API, low GOR would be ideal. Then there is the question of how the taxes/royalties are paid to bahamian government. A break even cost per barrel can be calculated and potential profits worked out from different POO prices. They may even hedge at the beginning who knows. One step at a time find it first, establish commercial viability and make a plan to produce.

Let's see if it can be sustainable. Got the scousers on board so should be ok.

nuts

I don't' normally post a subject matter with this title unless I am concerned, but very disappointed in the PR from Avacta. Huge rises in Covid19 infections all over the world yet big drop today. I once held almost ???k of these shares (not quite miles M****ter) but these were based on cancer and I got lucky with Covid, like many of you. We have all seen the leaks from Avct (placing 120p, sudden rises in last hour of trading before morning RNS). This week positive news is required on all fronts given the media news (AS - crisis what crisis? a la super tramp). Mates rates now at 130p.

Approved

@Red agree - but as you say it will take time and in that time the SP drifts back to the placing price or lower. RNS update is 1-2 weeks so unless we get help from the media as per ODX it's sell and wait for lower for me.

@purple - just stating as I observed it yesterday - 141/146 spread EOD yesterday. Nonsense to you but not for me.

sadly I was expecting progress on 'mid summer' delivery of the tests. Although these trials great news for the test no way is MS achievable. So when is the next news due and what will the SP be before the next RNS? Confirmation yesterday that AVCT still letting leaks out by the sudden SP rise late in the day.

P..11 - cheers good luck.

Phoenix11 - A nice courteous reply which also helped me as a non-insignificant holder with an average of 47p. Let's hope like your namesake the SP can fly from the ashes of the 30s.

A lot depends on the cost to produce etc. If you had a production of 1000 bbl/d for 90% of the year and they made a pure profit of $15/bbl then you would be looking at around 4mm GBP per year. Current MC is 5mm GBP. You can work things out from there. They still have a lot of things to do even to achieve 1000 bbl/d but if they do manage 10,000 bbl/d then 20-50p is possible depending upon the $ profit per barrel.

14p

Ophidian - I also believe they need two types of LFT. If this is the case then I would have expected a faster drive towards approval/marketing the general population one (as this is the bigger $ earner). If the higher prevalence version requires more time to develop (as implied in latest RNS) why sacrifice sales if the lower prevalence is ready to go? Unless of course the lower prevalence is still not ready.

Finally!

This outstanding announcement has yet to hit the full media yet. A potential cure and making it non contagious at the same time!!!!
Last night I watched that webinar and DW of Avacta says we can not only do the rapid testing but be more prepared for future pandemics. It's not quite game set and match but we are definitely 2 sets to love up.

https://mcusercontent.com/d9ebd7c1aa0f3dbc5fab42eca/files/9625d99e-31fb-458d-9f68-b51d2b8bb5ed/AvactaGroupplc_18_6_20_FINAL_BG.pdf

Nope - BLM is still their primary focus and will be for a long time. Left wing media so don't expect anything different.