Member Info for miker444

double i really really am aware of the situation mate as is everyone else, i have stated it many times, i think the likelihood is that ADL will go into administration, but until it does i do not see any point in reiterating the past as grim as it is, we all know the score mate.

Greg really appreciate the reply, as grim as it is we cannot change the past and can only be forward looking from here. It may not happen but I do think from last RNS win or fail that Simon is looking or has actually already secured private investment.
It maybe the last roll of the dice but its all we've got anyway.
Thanks again mate.

If the Cadeby formation is a success (and its a big if ) then the NPV for West Newton is an incredible $1.1 bn
( $247m + $850m) with 25% net to RBD ( $275m ) .
Even if not still $247m NPV without it but you never know. Irrespective there are connecting gas pipelines literally next door so monetisation could probably happen extremely quickly, a bit like the UKOG road tankers trundling off their well test oil sold off to the local Fawley refinery or wherever it is they go.
The sp will not be here for long imo.
atb

Hi Greg25, your theoretical scenario's come with a confidence of detail in how they would be applied that irrespective of success or failure suggest they may be more than just theory. There's a lot of similarity mate in that the last paragraph of the recent RNS Simon stated about private investment 'new' shareholders as well as existing or words to that effect, so much so it was what i posted about immediately afterwards, more than once.
Not a criticism, just the opposite in that I hope your theory is correct and curious as to the inclusion of India as a location.
Fully appreciate you cannot divulge price sensitive theories ( info lol ) but me thinks you know more than you are letting on :¬) I certainly hope so
atb mate

Any rough ideas how many shares CF have left to offload, can't be many more looking at some of the recent sell trades.

The license permit expected end of March, that's only a couple of weeks and the Construction permit end of April that's the hold up so once they are appoved, as expected by local council feedback, then things will stat to move.
Boblondon is correct this is the norm in O&G Industry, in fact UKOG investors have waited 4 years for production eversince the Gatwick gusher at HorseHill flowed 1688 bopd on a reduced choke, still no production yet but expected by Xmas so we are moving very fast in comparison believe it or not.

But only a month or so, now end of June instead of May so no big drama. News soon on Monroe Swell.

Can't argue with the placing but in the last hour we have had 1 x £5k buy and 4 x £2k buys at nearly full ask. ?

£20k yesterday 4pm, just seen it. Punt? surely not but if so braver man than me!

Just feel more work could be required to prove commerciality before Perenco / potential buyer parts wth £m's and that would mean more expense, would be over the moon to be proven wrong and if 4m barrels is all that was needed for commerciality who am I to argue.

kezzman may well be the case but he is till setting himself up for a fall, athough as you say he could probably hide behind positive results elsewhere.
Me, I personally would have said nothing as the drill results had been factored in, let sleeping dogs lie as it were.
atb

Whilst still invested I share the view and have factored in the probability that Colter will be left on the shelf. However Brian Larkin of UOG states in his proactive interview that only 4m barrels was needed for Colter to become commercially viable. He reiterates this fact twice and concludes that the 15m expected barrels far exceeeded this, obviously.
My point is if it was Simon of ADL stating this then it could be taken with a pinch of salt and some might say it still should be but this interview was only yesterday and he seemed genuine in his belief that it would be commercialised.
The chances are stacked against and it would have been better for his credibilty / reputation to say nothing at all than have to climbdown / answer to his comments if as we suspect its mothballed. I did find his comments strange this late on from the drill but also may be no more than he has to be seen to be positive as CEO.
atb

Whilst not huge buys some pretty decent ones yesterday, several £3k, a couple of £4k and an after hours £6k. As I say not earth shattering but noticeable considering this is ADL and all thats gone on, can only assume the sp is so low some are expecting it can only go up if a little.

Can we just wait until further news, we all need an update to state whether or not it will be commercialised / sold off and the final evaluation / proving up of recoverable volumes.
The situation is not good and it could go either way but the truth is no one knows on this BB and I am not sure the JV companies do either, yet.

Shouls have said COULD get 2700 bopd not WILL get as we dont yet know the flow rates but 9 x 300 = 2700.

He stated along the lines that the Monroe Swell flow rates may not be as high (as VG - 4 was my intake) and therefore not 480 bopd but I believe they can come in comfortably at 300 bopd.
The success at Monroe lies in the number of wells they can drill and If they do eventually manage 9 wells then they will get 2700 bopd / 2.
60m of pay is big and so flow rates should remain at a stable level for some time before significant depletion, (hopefully).

Totally agree with keeping it in the bank, there will be a natural cash burn anyway and we do not have anything to raise against at this moment in time, it really is Colter first and foremost.

Agree Paul but personally now don't give a monkeys about ADL reputation if we can get something back nearer to initial investment that will do me.
Of course Simon does have £800k to play with but that will not get an awful lot of investment exposure.

Does seem a little strange for a decent buy like that at this stage, could be a hopeful punt that on any news of commercialisation we could go back up towards the 1p mark but a braver man than me if I am honest.
I have not sold out and will hold on the hope that commeciaisation does come off, if it does then will get most of my initial investment back, not expecting a profit, if it doesn't then not a lot worse off than where I am now.

volvic it's been a shit day no one is disputing that and like you I am down big time, but if we can salvage something from South being commercial then all well and good, it may be clutching at straws but currently I am hoping that the CEO's, certainly RBD's are optimistic through genuine belief that this can be moved forward albeit not as originally intended.