Member Info for miker444

I think ADL can wait 4 weeks to find out the evaluation results.

It does Badger, I have just posted some musings on ADL board regarding how Colter may look to Perenco / Wytch Farm and their emotional detachment from not directly being shareholders sitting on losses / paper losses.

Its understandable the doom and gloom here as either you are a shareholder still holding sitting on some hefty paper losses or one that has cashed in taking a big hit.

I do however wonder how it is perceived from those not connected directly to ADL / RBD / BOIL / UOG etc. I am talking about Perenco / Wytch Farm employees / management / BOD who would have seen the initial BBC South news report on mainstream tv which quoted the £700m 'black gold' discovery in their own backyard, their words not mine.

It would surely have been the talk of the town the following day at Wytch Farm unless absolutely not one person / employee associated with Perenco or Wytch Farm saw the news which I find inconceivable. So what would the reaction have been. That is open to conjecture I agree. But in all reality would they have been upbeat that 15m barrels has been discovered next door in light of their own reserves being depleted ( 450m barrels extracted in last 40 years) or would they have said not interested until the main appraisal had been drilled.

Genuinely believe whatever their take on it they would have been very keen to make initial enquiries from the very outset of the BBC news report. They would not have the personal / emotional outlook as associated if they were PI's shareholders or otherwise sitting on losses.

If the evaluations are as some have stated conservative coupled with the strong oil shows from the side track cornbrash which is what is providng production onshore from the kimmeridge then we may be in with a decent shout still.

Just musing and trying to see both sides of the coin which I readily admit is not easy through the eyes of a shareholder within ADL with actual big losses or losses on paper at least.

at

States Colter South / Colter sidetrack evaluation due towards end of April, so 4 weeks ish.
atb

Just been informed that Theresa May will resign tomorrow, not known yet in the public eye. We shall see.

Actual not last RNS it was the 25th Feb 'Equity Release' one and its in the last paragraph about securing investment from private sector / updating shareholders etc etc.

I suspect there's a difference between insider info and consensus of feeling within the investor communnity, I for one picked up on the 'private investment' and 'look forward to updating shareholders' in the last RNS.

I too thought India / Indonesia but this was just a gut feeling, could be totally wrong but definitely something being planned by Simon in addition to whatever Colter South may or may not bring and sounds like he has already had inward investment.

Thanks jack,an awful lot oing on in just the next couple of months but West Newton looks really good in terms of NPV, if we get a success at the extra Cadeby Formation drill that would give West Newton an NPV of about $1.1bn with 25% net to RBD.
Even wihout it its still an NPV of nearly $250m with $61m net to RBD. Monroe Swell news very soon.
atb

If he doesn't go he doesn't go, its all down to Colter South and has been for a while, nothing we can do about that other than wait, I have mentaly written it off but listen to UOG's Brian Larkin which givs a glimmer of hope that something may be salvaged but I am not holding my breath.

FB I think all those that are still invested will be interested in what Simon has to say, I for one will be.

Ismalia as per my post yesterday, if indeed Colter South becomes commercialised that would certainly be a big plus for the sp. However with the increased number of shares the sp will be kept in check to what could have been but we should still get back to 1p if our 1.2m barrels are part of the equation. Might as well hold as sell at this low level and see what happens, I do agree with Greg 25 that we will see other announcements in addition to Colter, whether they come off or not is another matter.
atb

Costs were mentioned in an interview some time ago and they came in at under $20 as it was onshore, I believe $18 was quoted, eitherway an awful lot of room for profit and today a lot of experts quoting that they expect oil to be hitting $75 soon.

Jambam I'm down £55k, the only consolation being that it was a free carry due to 'top slicing' profit money elsewhere. Still pee'd off though, have accepted and written it off mentally but 1% chance says Colter South could, just could get me back something as I haven't cashed in with sp so low.

Jay nothing wrong whatsoever with your figures and AIM has proven a realsitic view is usually correct. I just remember VG 4 initially flowing at 1080 barrels before being choked back to 480 bopd. S&S did also state they did not expect to replicate the 480 from all the other wells but I do think that 300 per well is highly possible considering the acreage and 60 metres pay.
When you think the 3 metres of pay at Colter South is estimated 15m barrels or more it does bring in perspective just what 60 metres could contain, certainly depletion rates should be slow.
We shall see but 72% COS at Monroe Swell should get us flowing oil whatever the rate!
atb

boblondon, hi mate I think your figures are very conservative. The production costs for onshore in California come in at $20 a barrel at most, we command Brent prices not WTI also and so we will get $40 a barrel profit with current oil prices stabilising around $60 - $65.( currently $67.82).
If we can get the 9 or so wells that some have quoted its not impossible to get 2000 bopd ( net with 50%). That is considerabe.
Most oil companies have a MarCap of at least 4 x earnings so 2000 bopd x $60 ( turnover not profit) x 365 x 4 x earnings gives $175m MarCap (again not profit). We may not get a total of 2000 bopd but with multi - wells it won't be far off.

My point this is just California and not Grizzly Island and the 60m pay is a significant width.

Quoted by Brian Larkin of UOG who stated more than once that 4m barrels were needed to make it commercially viable. His words not mine.
We appear to have at least 15m barrels, also more than one person from different companies are stating the 15m is a conservative / low estimate.
Can it be got out that is the question. I think an awful lot of effort will be made to make it happen although it is not a given, yet.
Something that seems to be overlooked by posters but is mentioned by all the parties in the consortium is the 'significant' hydrocarbon shows in the cornbrash, separate to Colter South's 15m, this is quoted ( from memory) as similar to the kimmeridge which is producing at Wytch Farm.
Again my wording is from memory but can it be that we may have hydrocarbons in addition to the 15m at Colter South. More work and cost on that I accept but lets see what the final analysis is.

Morning chrishutch, nice to see you back mate

Steve and Sachin stated several times in separate interviews there is a lot of 'running room' due to the size / acreage of Monroe Swell in relation also to the 60 metres of pay and talk of multiple wells.
Just wondering how many wells they would be allowed to drill?

Very impressive for spotting the 8623, if not related an incredible coincidence.

ismalia to answer your question 8% of 15m is 1.2m. UOG also seem pretty excited by the significant hydrocarbons in the cornbrash layers also. If the 15m is conservative we could get near the 19m - 23m barrels that we expected of the main appraisal North Colter which did not come up trumps. What other work is needed is another matter with costs attached but UOG clearly stated that just 4m barrels was needed for commerciality so 4 x multiples of that does suggest all measures will be taken to try and get commerciality if they can.
If against all odds Colter South comes off then the value to ADL will depend on the price per barrel that can be commanded. But lets say a ball park relatively low figure of $12 then that would be $14m ( RBD used a higher fig of $15/$16 on their presentation page) then that would be $18m / $20m for ADL.
Could get the sp back to break even for those that bought in at the higher level of 0.9 / 1p.