From olderwiser on HC24 May 2018 03:05
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-operations-update.4202305/page-34?post_id=33285745#.WwYO8kiFPIU
Just a few idle musings to fill the time till reality is revealed.
In the update the wording " up to an additional 4000 barrels of fluid from the HRZ reservoir " is used. In line with earlier statements indicating more than 30% recovery may be needed to get good reservoir contact.
~28000 barrels of frack fluid were initially injected, so 1% is 280 barrels, making 4000 barrels equate to 14.3% .
Up to indicates the maximum expected so could be less, based on the original 30% expectation, the remaining 10% being only 2800 barrels
In the first flow test over 7 days (20-06-17 to 26-06-17) 13% of frack fluid flowed (3640 barrels). Interestingly giving an average daily flow rate of 520 barrels, suggesting 88e was comfortable the proppant pack could handle the flow rate.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170626/pdf/43k5ldvlnydt1c.pdf
Back to the update where 88e have modelled the 4000 barrels will take 10 to 14 days to recover, giving a average daily flow range of 400 to 280 barrels.
We are also aware gas lift will not be utilized till the pressure build up has been substantially depleted by natural flow from the reservoir. It is not sensible or practical to start injecting nitrogen into a fully pressurized (9000 psi) system. That brings the possibility that in a best case scenario gas lift will be engaged late in the flowback process, if at all. Prudent to prepare for expected case though.
In the first flow test ~15% was recovered and in the second ~5%, making the possibility of a natural recovery somewhere between these numbers probable, due to the extended shut in/ pressure recovery period this time.