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Back in March as ONS guinea pigs my wife and I got this e-mail from the ONS:-
Thank you for your participation in the survey, which has been vital to tracking COVID-19. Thanks to you and thousands of others, the information we have analysed from your finger prick blood tests has greatly increased our understanding of COVID-19 antibodies, and how they affect our chances of getting COVID-19 again.
You will be used to getting your antibody results as “positive”, or “negative”. This is how the test was approved early in the pandemic before vaccines were developed and is very accurate at identifying people who have or have not had COVID-19.
In future, we will tell you whether your finger prick blood test is negative, positive, or positive at a higher level for antibodies.
You do not need to do anything differently in response to your antibody results. This is because antibodies are only one part of the way that our bodies fight infection. Other parts of our immune system, like T-cells, also help. Antibody levels can also change over time – this is a normal part of how our immune systems work.
Our bodies respond to infection and to vaccination in slightly different ways. Having had a COVID-19 infection before usually gives a stronger immune response than vaccination. To get a similar level of protection from vaccination alone, a higher level of antibodies is needed. Based on all the blood tests you and others in the survey have done, we have now worked out just how much higher. We compared how the risk of new COVID-19 infections changes across different antibody levels for the Delta variant, which was the most common variant when this research was done. The higher antibody level provides a 67% lower risk of getting a new COVID-19 infection with the Delta variant after two vaccinations, compared with someone who was unvaccinated and had not had COVID-19 before www.nature.com/articles/ s41591-022-01721-6
Without the blood samples you have generously given to the survey, we would not know this.
We are still learning about antibodies and COVID-19, and we will be using the blood samples you give in 2022 to work out what levels may be needed to give similar protection against the Omicron variant.
Thank you for everything that you have done to help the survey so far. Your continued support is crucial to our efforts to fight COVID-19. If you have any queries about this letter, please contact 0800 085 6807.
Yours sincerely
Professor Sir Ian Diamond, National Statistician
Regarding ONS and people wanting to know their antibody level this may answer a few of the questions. Sorry if it repeats some of what I have posted before.
Aside from doing monthly PCRs, why do you think the ONS survey started measuring antibodies on a monthly basis? Then in more recent months they started measuring and feeding back to participants like my wife and I where we stood, negative, passed or pass at an advanced level. If you want more insight on antibodies and rheumatism / immunosuppression read my history on ABDX posts
Relevant to some is this news https://www.nationalhealthexecutive.com/articles/vroom-trial-finds-suspending-immune-suppressing-treatment-doubles-antibodies.
I've said before my wife is on Methotrexate (an immunosuppressant) for arthritis and she had a "holiday" for two weeks before and after her third jab. The outcome of that was she started to pass rather than fail the antibody test we do each month (along with PCR) for the ONS survey.
“As Coronavirus spreads, so does the sobering reality that epidemics will become more common with our increasingly connected age. In our global society, outbreaks of infectious disease can move from a remote village to a major city on the other side of the world in under 36 hours. Understanding this new reality will be key to reducing the risk of future epidemics”. See https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-global-epidemics-health-pandemic-covid-19/
To understand the life cycle of a pandemic have a look at https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/national-strategy/intervals-framework.html
The article on wasting LFTs is at https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-uk-rapid-test-lateral-flow-b2116326.html
Not the news we want to hear as "Health chiefs are braced for a “bumpy ride” over the coming months amid fears that the latest wave of Covid will drive hospitalisations to their highest in more than a year and seasonal flu pressures could hit early." Lets hope we see more testing and people taking precautions to slow the spread. Full article at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/03/uk-health-chiefs-brace-for-bumpy-ride-amid-fears-over-covid-wave
Not the news we want to hear as "Health chiefs are braced for a “bumpy ride” over the coming months amid fears that the latest wave of Covid will drive hospitalisations to their highest in more than a year and seasonal flu pressures could hit early." Lets hope we see more testing and people taking precautions to slow the spread. Full article at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/03/uk-health-chiefs-brace-for-bumpy-ride-amid-fears-over-covid-wave
I wonder if Germany will be first to buy the Novacyt test? It seems to be taking hold in Berlin - see https://berlinspectator.substack.com/p/germany-to-commence-monkeypox-vaccinations
Gazman the World Health Network has already declared monkeypox a pandemic
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/06/25/nsml-j25.html
I truly hope things don't escalate, much less mimic the monkeypox scenario in this study last year on reducing high consequence biological threats https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO-TTX_Final.pdf. Health is more important than wealth. Stay well everyone.
Two weeks ago Abingdon said they had "We have something big coming". It seems some might need reminding....roll on Friday?
"Abingdon Health has been working behind the scenes on the launch of something new - that we know you'll love!
Whilst we can't give away too much right now, very soon you'll have a brand new place to find and buy home self-tests that enable you to look after your health, at a time and place that's convenient for you.
And the best bit - all products have been validated by Abingdon Health.
Get notified when we launch and receive an exclusive discount once we launch!"
See https://lp.abingdonhealth.com/something-big-is-coming?
Aside from doing monthly PCRs, why do you think the ONS survey started measuring antibodies on a monthly basis? Then in more recent months they started measuring and feeding back to participants like my wife and I where we stood, negative, passed or pass at an advanced level. Sharing the IP was a great clue as to what is likely to happen. Have a look at my history if you want more insight on antibodies and rheumatism / immunosuppression. Factories can be very profitable businesses if they are well set up and run. Very happy to hold Abingdon' for years to come,
Cheers Yorkshire.
Relevant to some is this news https://www.nationalhealthexecutive.com/articles/vroom-trial-finds-suspending-immune-suppressing-treatment-doubles-antibodies.
I've said before my wife is on Methotrexate (an immunosuppressant) for arthritis and she had a "holiday" for two weeks before and after her third jab. The outcome of that was she started to pass rather than fail the antibody test we do each month (along with PCR) for the ONS survey. Currently she is taking another "holiday" before her "vulnerable booster" in a few days time.
I was at the quack last week and everyone was wearing masks. In hospital this morning, I, and most other patients tended to be the only ones wearing masks. A friend went in for an emergency operation ten days ago - went well, but still in hospital as now got Covid. I wonder what the impact of withdrawing the guidance to wear masks in hospital at the end of May has had on the sick and elderly? See https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-infection-prevention-and-control/new-government-recommendations-for-england-nhs-hospital-trusts-and-private-hospital-providers
It may be summertime but my wife and I are keeping our guard up.
Just thought I would remind folks of the LTIP- see https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NCYT/long-term-incentive-plan-gjk5fnz9rr1jyh0.html
If they do less than 10% a year they get zero. From the £3.52 base set in December 2021 they need to do an average of 10% a year to get anything, That would be a price of £4.71 at December 2024. I for one am prepared to give them a couple of years to get a string of their products into the growing near patient testing market, so it’s a long term hold for me.
Thanks Hillseaker - totally agree with your thinking.
I doubt this will ever get to court. If it did maybe the Judge will be aware but the DHSC appears to have “form”?
I think Ecolog was the first. They got paid £38.5m for a Letter of Intent – see https://bylinetimes.com/2021/04/29/government-pays-38-million-to-firm-after-reneging-on-covid-contract/
Then there was Oxford Nanopore – see https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/09/blow-oxford-nanopore-ministers-end-covid-testing-contract-early/
Later on we have Abingdon Healthcare who as I recall ended up having to make 60 people redundant as a result of the DHSC. If you read the RNS at https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/abingdon_health/news/rns/story/x8q749x you will read there was an agreement to pay “Despite having been informed by the DHSC in January 2021, verbally and in writing, that payment for the 1m tests had been cleared, the Company understands that the DHSC has now chosen not to pay any of these outstanding sums until after the completion of the Judicial Review proceedings (the "JR") initiated by the Good Law Project ("GLP").” The hearing happened last month but still no news on the payments due from the DHSC.
And then we have Novacyt…
Just got this e-mail from Abingdon'
"We have some news.
Abingdon Health has been working behind the scenes on the launch of something new - that we know you'll love!
Whilst we can't give away too much right now, very soon you'll have a brand new place to find and buy home self-tests that enable you to look after your health, at a time and place that's convenient for you.
And the best bit - all products have been validated by Abingdon Health.
Get notified when we launch and receive an exclusive discount once we launch!"
See
https://lp.abingdonhealth.com/something-big-is-coming?
Just been reading this post from Taylor Quant from September 2020 – see https://twitter.com/TaylorQuant/status/1301556339781636097. Seems to fit the situation today.
With MCAP hovering around £100M (notionally the same as what we think they have in the bank) which way is it likely to go? We know the R&D folks must be busy. We finally have a saliva test to tout around. There is the interest from Bio and of course Tata scaling up activities in India. The DHSC cloud still hangs but as has been said before why would the CEO invest £100k if he thought the DHSC would be able to win their argument. The silence may be exceedingly frustrating but standing back I think the world has moved on to near patient testing and Novacyt is going for some slice of that cake. The baseline (and target) set for the LTIP is way higher than where we are now so someone has confidence. News before the AGM would be great but either way I am holding for the long term.
Hi Joe, this article may answer your question "Omicron variant: Why reinfections of UK’s dominant Covid strain are set to rise after six month lull" - see https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/omicron-variant-why-reinfections-of-uk-s-dominant-covid-strain-are-set-to-rise-after-six-month-lull/ar-AAXKPoY?