Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I got this e-mail this morning from the ONS. I thought they were planning to stop the monthly PCR and Antibody testing we have been doing - looks like it will continue. I wonder who might have an antibody test for the wider public to use?!!! All the best to LTH's.
Thank you for your participation in the survey, which has been vital to tracking COVID-19. Thanks to you and thousands of others, the information we have analysed from your finger prick blood tests has greatly increased our understanding of COVID-19 antibodies, and how they affect our chances of getting COVID-19 again.
You will be used to getting your antibody results as “positive”, or “negative”. This is how the test was approved early in the pandemic before vaccines were developed and is very accurate at identifying people who have or have not had COVID-19.
In future, we will tell you whether your finger prick blood test is negative, positive, or positive at a higher level for antibodies.
You do not need to do anything differently in response to your antibody results. This is because antibodies are only one part of the way that our bodies fight infection. Other parts of our immune system, like T-cells, also help. Antibody levels can also change over time – this is a normal part of how our immune systems work.
Our bodies respond to infection and to vaccination in slightly different ways. Having had a COVID-19 infection before usually gives a stronger immune response than vaccination. To get a similar level of protection from vaccination alone, a higher level of antibodies is needed. Based on all the blood tests you and others in the survey have done, we have now worked out just how much higher. We compared how the risk of new COVID-19 infections changes across different antibody levels for the Delta variant, which was the most common variant when this research was done. The higher antibody level provides a 67% lower risk of getting a new COVID-19 infection with the Delta variant after two vaccinations, compared with someone who was unvaccinated and had not had COVID-19 before www.nature.com/articles/ s41591-022-01721-6
Without the blood samples you have generously given to the survey, we would not know this.
We are still learning about antibodies and COVID-19, and we will be using the blood samples you give in 2022 to work out what levels may be needed to give similar protection against the Omicron variant.
Thank you for everything that you have done to help the survey so far. Your continued support is crucial to our efforts to fight COVID-19. If you have any queries about this letter, please contact 0800 085 6807.
Yours sincerely
Professor Sir Ian Diamond, National Statistician
Hi Kaeren, This link https://sam.gov/opp/98787df8c4944373bafa04283c38fe7a/view shows the original tender and amendment. On page 3 of the original tender W9114F22Q0019 it states the “Period of Performance: 1 March 2022 to 28 February 2027”. Good to see 17 line items. Thanks for all your research and all the best to LTH’s.
Hi PI100 yes agreed. AIM bulletin boards seem to attract the lowest forms of life but in my view if you read all you soon enough work out who has something useful to add. All the best.
@Hillseaker, you may recall back on 1st February we spoke about wanting an R&D update. Well thanks to ggg he spotted another patent application made by PrimerDesign lodged on the 7th January for “Composition and method”. (It was posted earlier today under https://twitter.com/gggg2120/status/1498656732268183552. I searched back and couldn’t find it being mentioned on this BB so thought I should mention it - see https://www.ipo.gov.uk/p-ipsum/Case/ApplicationNumber/GB2200153.1
Hi Kaeren, Given the growth of Omicron BA.2 it's good to know that PrimerDesign's "EscapePLEX ....can be used as a cost effective method for the detection of omicron BA.2 variant using real time PCR in resource limiting settings."
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-test-validation-approved-products/medical-devices-regulations-2002-protocols-effective-from-1-march-2022
To quote “This protocol is valid from 1 March 2022 until 31 May 2022 for those on list A and until 31 August 2022 for those on list B, unless amended or replaced by a subsequent protocol before those respective dates.”
Primer Design with PROmate is on list A.
If you take the time to look at the link you will see that the article discusses variants of Omicron and is dated Feb 23, 2022,11:04am EST. The relevance to Novacyt is that new tests are likely to continue to be needed as Covid isn't going anywhere. As for some shareholders being down at present I am down six figures. Have a good evening.
Dear fellow investors, Oxford University are investigating the role genetics has to play and why ” despite effective vaccine campaigns in many countries, small but increasing numbers of breakthrough infections are being reported in fully vaccinated people.....Measurements of antibody levels from the ONS National COVID-19 Infection Survey have identified a ‘low antibody responder’ group which overlaps significantly with the groups shown to be at risk of breakthrough infection, being enriched for males, people aged 75 or older and those with chronic comorbidities and immunosuppression, as well as possibly those with rare genetic variants.” Ref https://academic.oup.com/qjmed/article-abstract/115/2/67/6449451?redirectedFrom=fulltext. More work is needed but knowing your antibody level has to be a good start. In the meantime one thing remains clear: in vaccinated people the symptoms are milder and the severity is reduced too.
Stay safe everyone.
Understanding Covid is key to getting some idea of the future. Reading this article gives an insight into the development of variants and what that might mean – see https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2022/02/23/whither-the-omicron-family-ba1-ba11-ba2-ba2h78y-ba3/?sh=1f6c1441862e. It seems to me that we need to be very alert watching out for new variants and to be able to test for such (tick Novacyt). Further, and to quote “Although it seems like forever, we are likely in the early days of the Covid pandemic/epidemic/endemic experience. More questions remain than are answered. We need continued vigilance, surveillance, research, drug and vaccine development to see our way to a better future.”
Posted this before, but may be worth repeating as there are weblinks.
I am with this scientist who is saying that Covid will never become endemic – see https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/02/covid-will-never-become-an-endemic-virus-scientist-warns.html. They also warn that “it will keep causing epidemic waves, driven by waning vaccine immunity, new variants that escape vaccine protection, unvaccinated pockets, births and migration.” Seems to me we will be always needing treatments that can deal with all variants, not to mention COPD etc. I doubt that vaccines can be modified and rolled out to cover all bases as that hasn’t been possible for flu thus far. Also likely to be needing treatments at different places around the world. For instance New Zealand is worrying about cases coming in March – see https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/08/new-zealand-omicron-wave-likely-to-peak-in-march-with-up-to-30000-cases-a-day-says-ardern. As for the UK I am more inclined to believe the current trend showing on the ZOE study at https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time rather than the HMG picture as they changed the how they collect test results (I believe to fit with a political agenda) - see https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom.
Yes, I just got an e-mail offering a 10% discount on your first order. That said it's just £16 +VAT for a kit of five so £3.84 a pop. See https://www.pocketdiagnostic.com/onlineshop/covid-19/antigen-lateral-flow-home-self-tests-5/
Managed to find another £5k - holding for gold - have a little faith - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtlA-Zu-X2A
@Trek, The SAGE minutes give credence to more serious variants. To quote part of it
“8. There is no reason why future dominant variants should be similarly or less severe than Omicron, which may be an exception in having lower severity. The next dominant variant in the UK (and internationally) could have similar pathogenicity to previous variants, such as Delta. The range of evolutionary possibilities also includes substantial change to immune recognition.”
SAGE also express concern over treatments “10. The use of antivirals should be undertaken in a way to reduce the risk of emergence of resistance. In the event of a highly immune escaping variant, rapid access to effective antivirals will be a critical pharmaceutical countermeasure (medium confidence).”
It seems to me that a variant agnostic treatment from Synairgen will likely find a monster market.
Read it all at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-105-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-10-february-2022/sage-105-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-10-february-2022 and then make your own mind up.
Stay safe
SAGE explains the current position, long term viral evolution, future scenarios and the impacts of lifting restrictions. It’s worth reading it all but one part struck me
“8. There is no reason why future dominant variants should be similarly or less severe than Omicron, which may be an exception in having lower severity. The next dominant variant in the UK (and internationally) could have similar pathogenicity to previous variants, such as Delta. The range of evolutionary possibilities also includes substantial change to immune recognition.”
Have a read and then think about how Novacyt is positioned to help deal with things over the coming years. See https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-105-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-10-february-2022/sage-105-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-10-february-2022
Stay safe everyone.
HD2U, I have been in ABDX for two years now and am a keen supporter of UK diagnostics industry, but I do worry about whether HMG will do what make sense. I was strongly against buying the LFTs made in China by Innova and banned by the FDA in the USA. I recall Innova were going to set up in Wales? Does anyone know if that went ahead?
I just got an e-mail from Abingdon’. Over the past month they have been conducting a survey to learn about the interest in knowing one's COVID-19 antibody status – see https://www.abingdonhealth.com/app/uploads/2022/02/Abingdon-Health-COVID19-Antibody-Testing-Survey-Feb-2022.pdf? The survey was sent to individual’s from a range of organisations across multiple industries, holding a variety of different job titles and positions.
95% of survey respondents would be interested in knowing their COVID-19 antibody status
86% of survey respondents would consider monthly testing in order to monitor their antibody status
Respondents wanted to understand how their own antibody levels change over time and guide their approach to making decisions in order to protect friends, family and colleagues.
You can take part if you want by visiting https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfdYYK4zcr3UpSOqwdyUkrzyyfzsI737BVoFKe_VHJO2wPmyQ/viewform
Let’s look forward to when we see widespread use of antibody tests.
I am with this scientist who is saying that Covid will never become endemic – see https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/02/covid-will-never-become-an-endemic-virus-scientist-warns.html. They also warn that “it will keep causing epidemic waves, driven by waning vaccine immunity, new variants that escape vaccine protection, unvaccinated pockets, births and migration.” Seems to me we will be always needing treatments that can deal with all variants, not to mention COPD etc. I doubt that vaccines can be modified and rolled out to cover all bases as that hasn’t been possible for flu thus far. Also likely to be needing treatments at different places around the world. For instance New Zealand is worrying about cases coming in March – see https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/08/new-zealand-omicron-wave-likely-to-peak-in-march-with-up-to-30000-cases-a-day-says-ardern. As for the UK I am more inclined to believe the current trend showing on the ZOE study at https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time rather than the HMG picture as they changed the how they collect test results (I believe to fit with a political agenda) - see https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom. Sadly another 276 deaths reported today. Stay safe everyone.