Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Seems to me the company must be more exposed to a takeover now. Can’t help thinking that at around 70p this is likely as cheap as you will see – MCAP under 50m. Someone like TATA could do worse – they have very deep pockets so able to pay for legal eagles to take on the DHSC and they would get a great R&D team. The share price closed at 69.03 at end of September so we are not exactly breaking new ground today, so I'm planning on sticking around. Clearly an opportunity for someone to sort the company out. In the meantime we head for winter and opportunities for sales of Winterplex to gain traction at home and abroad.
As an aside my wife and I have been doing the ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey. Yesterday we got a note to say they will also be testing some of the Covid blood test samples for RSV and flu as well.
Hi Ex, yes - see https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200812005519/en/Rishi-Sunak-Visits-UK-Manufacturer-of-COVID-19-Analysis-Equipment
No reply and don't expect one now. It goes to reflect on the author in the Times purposefully not wanting to reconize facts...makes me think he may have had an ulterior purpose. Will post if I ever get a reply.
Hi BB,
I was so annoyed at the low-quality press article last week I wrote to the author about other DHSC cases thus:
Sir,
I was surprised to read your article in the Times today regarding Novacyt as the dispute with the DHSC has been running for many months now with barely any details regarding the dispute due to the use of NDA’s.
I wonder if you appreciate that the disputed product was met with professional endorsement and welcome when first available and has long since been CDTA approved – read the Novacyt RNS’s or visit https://www.pharmatimes.com/news/novacyt_pcr_covid-19_test_approved_under_ctda_legislation_1390021 for a brief summary.
You might also be interested to know that Novacyt is one of several businesses in the UK that have suffered hardship as a result of non-payment by the DHSC. I think Ecolog was the first. They got paid £38.5m for a Letter of Intent – https://bylinetimes.com/2021/04/29/government-pays-38-million-to-firm-after-reneging-on-covid-contract/
Then there was Oxford Nanopore – https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/09/blow-oxford-nanopore-ministers-end-covid-testing-contract-early/
Later on we have Abingdon Healthcare who as I recall ended up having to make 60 people redundant as a result non-payment by the DHSC. If you read the RNS at https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/abingdon_health/news/rns/story/x8q749x you will see there was an agreement to pay “Despite having been informed by the DHSC in January 2021, verbally and in writing, that payment for the 1m tests had been cleared, the Company understands that the DHSC has now chosen not to pay any of these outstanding sums until after the completion of the Judicial Review proceedings (the "JR") initiated by the Good Law Project ("GLP").” Last Friday, after over twenty months, the judge gave their conclusion – see https://caselaw.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ewhc/tcc/2022/2468 finally clearing the company’s name. See also https://www.abingdonhealth.com/investors/regulatory-announcements/.
If you wish to investigate further into the chaotic world of Covid tests might I suggest you take a look at the Chinese made Innova lateral flow tests that were widely used in the UK whist the FDA banned them in the USA - see https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/safety-communications/stop-using-innova-medical-group-sars-cov-2-antigen-rapid-qualitative-test-fda-safety-communication. Cheap and cheerful LFT’s unable to detect early stage Covid were chosen over professional level testing from companies in the UK. Moving on the UK switched to Flowflex™ SARS-CoV-2 LFTs buying the ACON Biotech (Hangzhou) Co Lt tests see https://www.lateralflowtest.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/MHRA-Approval.pdf and https://www.aconlabs.com/sars-cov-2-antigen-rapid-test-nasal-saliva. It is interesting to note the website says "Product is Available for International Distribution Only – Not Available in the US". I wonder if the FDA think those should also be "thrown in the trash"?
Try this link https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/environment-and-conservation/2022/09/the-uks-largest-avian-flu-outbreak-has-left-millions-of-birds-dead-and-scientists-extremely-concerned
It makes for sad and worrying reading...especially the part about wet markets in China and the 53% human death rate; best to keep away from dead birds and hope matters don't get worse.
Sorry gang the 48k was me, so nothing ominous known, but just thinking about personal finances as had become anxious about things as had sunk a lot of my SIPP in this. I find it very hard to not be able to attend the AGMs and get a proper feel about the company and those running things. Always felt the R&D was top notch but not sure that team is getting their just deserts. Best wishes to all genuine holders especially those who have shared their research.
I don't know if it is deliberate or not...but it is NOT "if we lose the case"....it is the DHSC that could feasibly lose the case brought by the Good Law Project. Sure the result of the DHSC/GLP hearing might impact on Abingdon' but as has been said already if that was likely why would the DHSC have transferred the funds they have?
DRB - there are 229 NHS Trusts in England alone (see https://www.nhs.uk/servicedirectories/pages/nhstrustlisting.aspx) and they only have to provide data on payments over £25,000 so it wouldn't be at all easy to find.
No worries they appeared again last month with a couple of orders - see https://www.uhd.nhs.uk/uploads/about/docs/reports/data-from-elfs-jul-22.pdf
Hi Saintsmith. Trouble is not enough of the public appreciate Lyme disease which can be very nasty if not diagnosed and treated. A bull’s eye rash can occur many days after a tick bite but they don’t always occur. It’s already endemic in many countries around the world and happening at an increasing rate. See
https://bionexushealth.com/environmental-illness/lyme-disease/lyme-disease-a-global-epidemic/ and https://www.newsweek.com/lyme-disease-cases-soared-over-15-years-due-global-warming-researchers-1730197. Testing is far from perfect it seems https://lymediseaseuk.com/lyme-disease-testing.
Novacyt was fast out of the gate as ever and USA was slow to start testing as was evident from the CDC figures that I have been following to try and gauge the rate at which MPX escalates. I can’t see what will stop it unfortunately. Once USA got testing I think they were surprised at the numbers which have since overtaken all other countries by some margin. So that rapid rise would have been on the news hence the reaction on USA bio share prices. UK by comparison is more focused on sport, who is to lead the rabble in No 10, inflation, etc. Not forgetting we don’t have Covid either; except we do which is why all the medics, chemists, dentists are wearing masks still. I am afraid the UK is sleepwalking into trouble this autumn. It will be interesting to see if European countries declare emergencies in the coming days. I just hope that Novacyt is going for CE and will sell into Germany and Spain for instance. See https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/world-map.html
Cheers for the calculation Wilson. It's worth noting that a patent lasts 5 years initially and can be renewed annually up to a maximum of 20 years. So the value of the reduced Corporation Tax along with the very helpful R&D Tax Credits will continue to give them a lower tax profile going forward..... All helps if you are putting 10% into R&D. For some industry comparison see https://www.statista.com/statistics/270233/percentage-of-global-rundd-spending-by-industry/
The Indian Council for Medical Research - National Institute of Virology has identified that the Monkeypox strain in India (A.2) is different to that of the European superspreader (B.1) – see www.timesnownews.com/health/icmr-niv-study-monkeypox-strain-in-india-different-from-that-of-european-superspreader-article-93227219
I wonder if the Novacyt test works for different variants?
An immunologist explains some facts about Covid and how in spite of vaccinations it impacts on the body in a variety of ways. Read it and you will likely change your behavior as you learn the facts. I hope everyone can remain safe and well going forward. See www.abc.net.au/news/health/2022-07-29/covid-19-three-myths-challenge-lies-ahead/101274980
The Academy of Medical Sciences outlines what should happen in preparing for a challenging winter. Read https://acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/covid-19-and-winter-viruses-how-should-the-uk-handle-the-coming-months and then think about how Novacyt may be positioned with their bioinformatics and comprehensive test range.
An immunologist explains some facts about Covid and how in spite of vaccinations it impacts on the body in a variety of ways. Read it and you will likely change your behavior. Not ramping just some facts to consider. I hope everyone can remain safe and well going forward. See www.abc.net.au/news/health/2022-07-29/covid-19-three-myths-challenge-lies-ahead/101274980
Seems to me Abingdon’ are putting a toe in the water of a different route to market and I wouldn’t criticize them for that. It’s worth reading the RNS Reach at https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ABDX/launch-of-abingdon-simply-test-e-commerce-website-9eizrwmgpjghr8d.html if you haven’t already.
To get some idea of the market potential look at https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/self-testing-market which they reference in the Reach. I plan on giving things more time to see how things go and may well kick off buying some vitamin D tests in the autumn.
In the absence of facts and sound advice from the media et al, really worth reading this article published yesterday - see https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/the-nhs-is-not-living-with-covid-its-dying-from-it/7032824.article
"Existing public health advice to wear masks in crowded places, ensure good ventilation, and test regularly need to be communicated much more powerfully and widely. This should include a return to mask wearing in healthcare settings and on public transport, as well as the re-introduction of free tests for the public (https://www.bmj.com/content/377/bmj.o1504). Vaccination is the fourth pillar of action. Large sections of the population, particularly ethnic minorities and younger age groups, are still not fully vaccinated."