Member Info for MF2017

@Mibb sorry, didn't mean you. Yes, set record straight.

Guys, quit squabbling over some minor border skirmish like it changes the investment case.

That’s why I’m resurrecting this title again: it’s time to buy.

We’ve got a financed mine that has started construction. In roughly two years, it’s projected to be a bona fide cash-generating asset.

Some people must have wished really hard for this setup.

Stop obsessing over minutiae. Focus on the trajectory.

And to the haters — instead of nitpicking, show me at least two alternative investments that are likely to deliver the same growth and dividend potential from 2028 onwards.

I’ll wait.

Buy.

Resserrected this title... keep it more in line with reality.

Someone's wish came true.

Posting a headline about troop movements on a border and declaring “I’ve sold out” isn’t analysis — it’s theatre.

Let’s keep this grounded. Border tensions between neighbouring states are not unusual, particularly in regions with historic disputes. They do not automatically translate into full-scale national war, systemic collapse, or investment thesis failure. We’ve seen similar situations elsewhere — limited border skirmishes that create headlines but don’t evolve into broad regional shutdowns or long-term economic paralysis.

Markets price risk continuously. If someone wants to sell on geopolitical nerves, that’s their call. But isolated headlines are not the same thing as structural change.

If your thesis was built on long-term asset value, project economics, and financing fundamentals, then a single news alert shouldn’t suddenly invalidate it. If it does, perhaps the position was never conviction-based to begin with.

Volatility shakes out short-term holders. It doesn’t change geology, project NPV, or contractual structures overnight.

On Ethiopia — a quick search mainly throws up YouTube clips and Facebook posts. That doesn’t make them false, but it’s hardly coherent evidence that imminent conflict is breaking out.

Yes, the region can bubble. So can much of the Middle East. Life still goes on.

More importantly: I see no realistic scenario where an Eritrea–Ethiopia flare-up materially impacts the TK site. It’s nowhere near the border. At worst, you get a temporary sentiment discount — frustrating, but not thesis-breaking.

And even if tensions rose, wars are not indefinite states of existence. Plenty of jurisdictions with political noise, conflict risk, or high crime still produce gold without interruption.

We now also have Saudi assets — this is no longer a single-jurisdiction story.

To me, this is background noise. The investment case turns on financing, build, and production — not speculative headlines.

Holding.

@Stebo

Appreciate the reply — and broadly, I agree.

No danger of me selling for silly money. I’m not trading this. I’m holding — Buffett-style — and intend to live off dividends, not spikes.

We’re all modelling with incomplete information until management confirms the remaining strategic pieces, so every set of numbers carries assumptions.

The 0.54p reference was simply from the Edison note — based on a much lower gold price, so clearly outdated. See my second post where I’m far less conservative — anchored at $5,000/oz. Not because I think gold sits there permanently, but because it’s a clean reference point to run numbers from.

If gold continues on its current trajectory, the upside becomes extraordinary relative to the very ordinary life I live now. I’m not selling a penny for a Maldives holiday — that would likely make the holiday infinitely more expensive a few years from now.

So don’t worry. Holding for gold.

Yes @Hubstar on the same page.

@Hubstar

To build on this using a more realistic 4–7% sustainable yield assumption:

If gold averaged ~$3,000/oz, steady-state dividends might sit around ~1.3–1.6p per share, which at a 4–7% yield would imply a share price somewhere in the region of ~19p to 40p.

If gold averaged ~$5,000/oz, dividends in the region of ~2.7–3.3p per share would imply share prices roughly ~39p to 83p on the same yield basis.

Clearly speculative and dependent on debt repayment, payout policy and strategic direction — but that’s how the maths looks to me if production stabilises and dividends prove durable.

Hi Hubstar, thanks again for the reply

Just to add context, Edison’s July 2025 note modelled ~0.54p per share p.a. (FY30–34) based on a long-term gold price of ~$1,866/oz. They also suggested dividends could begin from 2028, though more likely from 2030 onwards in their base case.

If I scale that framework to $3,000 gold (which I’d still call conservative looking forward), I get something in the region of ~1.0–1.5p per share once steady-state is reached. At $5,000 gold, obviously the leverage is materially higher.

That said, early years (2028–29) I’d still expect restraint — faster debt repayment, buffer building, etc. So personally I’d think a conservative starting dividend might sit somewhere around ~0.75p–1.0p, rising thereafter if the gold environment remains supportive.

Also worth noting: since Edison, the updated financing structure (with the new partner only paid alongside shareholder dividends) arguably increases the probability of distributions beginning earlier rather than later.

Hi Hubstar, thanks for posting.

Could you share how you arrived at the 12–15% p.a. dividend estimate? Not a criticism — just keen to understand the assumptions behind it.

If that’s realistic, I may need to start adjusting my retirement spreadsheet.

@normab1 ... 'too' ...not *to*.

All part and parcel of boring governance etc.

The tide goes in and out — but it always reshapes the shoreline.

KEFI will move up and down. Retraces are normal. On AIM, traders will skim their percentages. That’s the tide.

But as Stebo has consistently said, weak hands get replaced by higher-priced weak hands… and then by even higher-priced hands. Each cycle resets the base. Gradually, the short-termers thin out, stronger holders step in, and eventually institutions follow.

That’s how foundations are built.

Construction, production, cash flow, dividends — that’s the shoreline being formed.

Let the weak hands rotate. Let the tide do its thing.

Those who simply buy and hold through the noise may find the real reward isn’t in the daily swings — it’s in the slow, steady reshaping underneath.

🤦🤦🤦🤦 they are throwing money away. Why? Literally KEFI is giving it away.

Hit 2p and haven't seen big stop loss trigger it seems. Have PIs learned at see KEFI as the once in life time AIM share?

They've had long enough to cotton on as KEFI has been on obvious upside for months.

@Caterham7 wise. Half mine are in ISA, but other half in regular trading account. You must have been accumulating for a good few years to manage that @ £20 k a year allowance.

I'm actually an expat so should be exempt from CGT, but I sorting out confirmation.

The real golden nugget here isn’t just NAV, market cap projections, or the PE maths many have shared.

It’s this: Chancery only gets paid when shareholders receive dividends.

That’s huge. It confirms the dividend pathway.

Many of us invested for the re-rate — developer to producer, capital appreciation, Main Market transition. But long-term dividend income is the real generational wealth engine.

If we’re receiving dividends based on our entry prices, that’s genuinely life-changing.

Can we open discussion now about how people are going to mitigate tax risk on the profits we rightly deserve?

I am like you, but @deedee1 ... you did do we don’t have to 😆... give us some insights you got.

Quite right @Stebo . Anchor bias.