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Not looking to get into another spat over takeover. Just thinking ...

I think we need to ask whether we’re comparing apples with apples, or apples with olives.

A lot of the takeover logic rests on a simple mental model: gold majors are cash-rich in a bull market, they buy attractive projects, therefore KEFI could be bought. I agree that logic is strong — but it’s incomplete.

Most examples cited involve clean ownership, single jurisdictions and limited third-party constraints. KEFI doesn’t fit that template. Any buyer wouldn’t just be buying KEFI PLC; they’d be stepping into a web of project-level contracts, lenders and government agreements that can’t simply be overridden.

That doesn’t make a takeover impossible, but it makes a clean buyout materially harder. Which is why I don’t see KEFI being bought out during construction, or in early mining.

Just to clarify, when I say “negotiation” I don’t mean with shareholders. I mean the legal, contractual and regulatory negotiations with lenders, governments and project counterparties. That’s very different from a simple market bid.

Don’t think a full takeover of KEFI is likely.

Tulu Kapi has been known for years as a high-grade open pit asset, yet no one bid for KEFI before the finance package was assembled. Today the structure is more complex, involving multiple lenders, governments and counterparties. Any buyout would require negotiation with all of them, which is not easy. Harry would be the first to tell you that.

I think takeover talk appeals because some shareholders would rather not wait through construction and would prefer an early exit while gold is strong.

If anything happens, I’d expect a project-level JV or partial asset deal rather than a company takeover.

Happy to be wrong, but that’s how I see it.

For me it’s fairly simple.

20p is TK working and gold staying high.

30p is TK plus visible Saudi value.

40–50p is both assets producing with established cash flows.

If you reverse-engineer 45p, it comes down to cash flow, not hope.

45p implies roughly a £4.8bn valuation.

Producers tend to trade around 10x free cash flow, so you need about £450m a year.

At around $6,000 gold, TK alone can deliver roughly £220–260m.

If Saudi reaches similar economics, as management has suggested, that adds another £180–240m.

Put the two together and you’re in the £400–500m range that supports ~45p.

I think 2032 is a reasonable window for that if execution delivers.

The biggest variable is gold itself — and $6,000 may not turn out to be aggressive at all.

Happy to hear other views.

Tiny housekeeping thing (and I promise I’m not being that guy 😄): the thread title says “there waking up” — should it be “they’re waking up” (“they are”)? Same sound, different meaning. Might be worth fixing ...so we're not rich dummies

@Stebo

spot on post. What finally stopped me worrying about early % moves was running the cash maths instead of watching the tape.

On TK alone: 170koz p.a. At a still conservative $5,500 gold, you’re looking at roughly $350–400m free cash flow once steady state is reached.

Even at a heavily discounted 5× FCF, that implies a ~$2bn valuation — roughly 14p/share. At more normal producer multiples, it’s higher.

That’s before Saudi, before additional TK licences, before any re-rating.

Selling at 2–5p feels like selling before cash flows exist, before dividends exist, and before valuation replaces sentiment.

Once I realised the dividend potential on my own share count, sitting on my hands got a lot easier.

Agreed Openpit! Cicero would have recognised this instantly: those who cannot endure the burden of action prefer the comfort of ridicule.

Easy to sneer from the sidelines; far harder to lead a frontier-market company for a decade through low gold prices, political risk, and worse — and still be standing.

Hats off to Harry Adams, John Leahy, and Roger Murphy — and a special mention to Roger for always taking the time to reply to emails.

Just saw this released around three hours ago on TipRanks.

Direct quote from the article (attributed to Alex Wright):

“The most recent analyst rating on KEFI stock is a Hold with a £1.50 price target.”

I’m sure this will get a few tongues wagging 😊

Almost certainly just a currency / GBX vs GBP typo by the website rather than a genuine £1.50 target (given where the share price actually trades), but it did make me laugh and smile when I read it.

Worth flagging before anyone gets carried away.

People ask what would actually make the share price move.

It isn’t another RNS.

It’s things that change who can buy and how much they can buy.

Main Market listing.

Larger institutions.

Deeper capital pools.

Alongside that: visible construction, drawdowns, and execution.

On gold — my tin-hat view — we’re at a turning point.

The world is drifting back toward competing empires and spheres of influence.

In that world, physical assets matter again.

Gold isn’t priced for one election cycle.

It’s being repriced for a different era.

Structure moves markets.

Noise doesn’t.

People keep asking for another RNS — as if that’s what’s holding the share price back.

But ask yourself: why would it suddenly “pop”?

There’s nothing missing.

The market already knows the story.

What actually moves mining shares is physical progress = drawdowns, construction, kit on site, concrete poured.

Words don’t de-risk a project.

Execution does.

Keep s3xing us up Rob! Loving the evidence that my investment case is going to be on steriods!

People keep saying Harry needs to do something.

In reality, he already has.

The fundamentals are in place — permits, financing, partners.

Now it’s execution: build, produce, sell gold.

What people really want is a faster share-price reaction.

That comes from delivery, not commentary.

Sometimes the right move is to sit back, take a breath, and let the plan unfold.

Still buy on share Prophets and TW bought more today.

Well done Harry and team. Complex financing and getting us to tbis massively better de-risking point.

My sober take – this is a long-term investment, not a short-term trade

I’m looking at KEFI as a long-term investment, not a short-term flip, and through that lens the key fact is simple:

KEFI has retained ~83% ownership of the Tulu Kapi gold mine.

That’s the asset that generates the cash.

Yes, we now have ~10.7bn shares in issue. If you’re trading week to week, I understand why that dominates the discussion. But for long-term holders, this outcome is a clear win.

This is a complex, multi-layered financing involving multiple lenders and government participation. Historically, the upper end discussed was ~85%. Retaining ~83% in that context is an excellent result, and Harry Adams and the team deserve real credit for delivering it.

To put some perspective around it, I’ve run my own numbers assuming $4,500 gold around 2028 (happy to justify that separately):

• Tulu Kapi generates very strong operating cash

• KEFI retains the majority of that cash via its 83% stake

• On a per-share basis, that equates to multi-pence annual cash generation

• After tax, debt service and reinvestment, ~1p+ per share dividends annually look entirely plausible at steady-state production

I first bought at ~0.5p, with an average around 0.58p. From that standpoint, the current noise and short-term angst don’t change the core investment case at all.

What I’m watching next as a long-term holder:

• Drawdowns and capital deployment

• Construction cost control

• Debt reduction post first gold

• A clear dividend policy once cash flow stabilises

Unless you fundamentally disagree with the gold price assumption or believe Tulu Kapi won’t reach production, I struggle to see anything here other than a strong outcome for patient investors.

For me, it’s a round of applause for Harry and the team — and then patience.

Hey Magic Orb — I agree that anyone with common sense should approach bulletin-board commentary with a healthy degree of skepticism.

That said, I’m only invested in two stocks, and one of them — KEFI Gold and Copper — represents the overwhelming majority of my exposure. Given that concentration, I think it’s entirely reasonable for me to comment, question, and engage critically on the stock I’m materially invested in.

That’s not noise-making — it’s ownership.

Tiny url... can't get to work.

How to access? Write in more useful way if you want people to read.

Or wrote/copy content here on board.

Ouch, I bought in at 20p.

Still, a longvterm investment.

I'm balls deep already, my friend

Why today’s 3.5p valuation is deliberately conservative = they’ve priced the floor, not the ceiling.

Having read the SP Angel note, I’m with Stebo — it’s extremely conservative, and deliberately so.

In plain English, they’re basically modelling:

“Base gold” at $3,300

Ownership at 70%

Discount rate at 10%

Extra risk haircut around 25%

Zero value for the Saudi portfolio

Zero value for TK underground or exploration

Zero rerate from developer → producer

In other words: they’ve priced the floor, not the ceiling.

My take after today’s RNS and the Zurich presentations…

Kefi’s still got roughly 5,000 private investors, and a big chunk of them are the quick-money crowd. They piled in hoping for a mid-November pop based on their own timelines, and when news didn’t land exactly when they expected, they jumped out. That’s all this share price dip is — fast money exiting.

But the fundamentals haven’t changed at all.

Today’s RNS was outstanding. The Zurich presentations were outstanding. The project is financed, moving into execution, and backed by serious Tier-1 partners. This isn’t a punt anymore — it’s a properly structured, high-value, multi-decade asset.

Do your own research. Look at the NPV. Watch the gold price. Look at the catalysts lining up.

As for me, I’m already balls deep, so I’m just sitting back now and waiting for the day the dividends start rolling in. At that point, the day job becomes optional.