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Harry has had a hair cut. Photo ready. Photos imminent 😆👑👑💰💰💰

Can sb post interview link again please 🙏

It's a fair position to take @deedee1

People would have laughed at $5000 oz years ago.

Still a bit throthy for me currently as personally see AI slightly over egged on its impact on tge world within next 2 years.

Complete game changer though if dollar becomes gold-backed.

Thanks to Rob for the Saudi link. Good find.

Some are dismissing 17p as misleading. Investors should run the numbers and separate legacy modelling from today’s gold environment.

Using disclosed figures and ~10.5bn shares:

Tulu Kapi attributable value comes out around 4.4p to 9.5p per share.

The 13% Saudi stake (~$148m) equates to roughly 1.1p per share.

That gives a combined legacy sum-of-the-parts valuation of approximately 5.5p to 10.6p per share pre-production, based on long-term gold assumptions of roughly $1,800 to $2,200.

Now look at the gold environment we are actually in. With gold around $5,000, margins are dramatically higher than legacy feasibility assumptions. A simple sensitivity using that higher price environment gives an unrisked range of roughly 19p to 39p.

Apply a heavy pre-production risk discount of 0.4 to 0.6 times NAV and you arrive at roughly 8p to 23p pre-production.

On that basis, 17p in a sustained high-gold production scenario is not automatically absurd.

Investors need to recognise that most published share price ranges for KEFI are built on legacy gold modelling of $1,800 to $2,200. Gold has been materially above that level for an extended period.

Do your own maths.

Great find Rob. I think the market and even many shareholders have completely missed this point.

Today’s RNS was informative and reassuring for long-term holders. Clear evidence of continued de-risking and steady progress — and more than enough to quiet the usual Harry critics.

That said, I suspect most of this is already baked into the share price. What will really move us decisively through 2p and hold it as a new base will be hard milestones: signing ceremonies, formal drawdowns, and visible funding execution.

I’m not trading the noise — I’m here for 2028+ and dividends. Long may KEFI stay KEFI.

Mibb, great comment. Can you expand a bit. It's over my head 🤦

For me personally, anything below 8–9p would be a clear rejection.

I accept that this may sound bullish, and some will no doubt disagree, but even at mid single digits I would feel value had been crystallised far too early. After years of capital at risk and execution uncertainty, selling in single digits just as funding is finalised and construction begins would feel deeply unsatisfactory.

Others may take a different view, but from where I sit the fundamentals, the remaining upside at Tulu Kapi, and the additional optionality in Saudi do not support a single-digit outcome at this stage.

Just released by TW on hot rockets newsletter:

"With it last month having stated on Tulu Kapi “signing of the fully integrated final funding package remains on track for February”, we look for that leading to major project construction and gold sector sentiment bouncing back to help these shares beyond 2p and on to well past 2.5p. We consider that a bid for the Tulu Kapi mine, or at least for Kefi’s 80% odd stake,, before it gets into production is more than likely and that the net proceeds would easuly be in excess of 3p per share."

I'd be very disappointed with a 3p offer and would reject it.

I don’t see a major seller here. Looks like PIs trading averages and top-slicing — margin trades. The volatility suits traders. Even 1m trades are small if you’re holding 10–20m. Concrete news and mine construction should bring a more stable price range.

Easy read - Feb 16th - Chinese new year etc.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-01/gold-silver-extend-declines-after-dramatic-reversal-of-rally?embedded-checkout=true

I wanted to repost as i don't believe my post is a ramp, but a reminder based on gold prices and crunching numbers

People seriously need to do some math - and i can't personally see a retrace in Gold such $4000 by a long shot:

reverse-engineered from cash flow at production, TK alone:

Gold at ~$4,100/oz → ~20p share price

Gold at ~$5,800/oz → ~30p share price

Gold at ~$8,900/oz → ~50p share price

That’s based purely on Tulu Kapi at ~170k oz pa, 83% KEFI ownership, conservative producer multiples. No Saudi value, no mine extensions, no blue-sky.

Gold just moved through $5,500/oz.

Incredible.

Quick sense-check, reverse-engineered from cash flow at production, TK alone:

Gold at ~$4,100/oz → ~20p share price

Gold at ~$5,800/oz → ~30p share price

Gold at ~$8,900/oz → ~50p share price

That’s based purely on Tulu Kapi at ~170k oz pa, 83% KEFI ownership, conservative producer multiples. No Saudi value, no mine extensions, no blue-sky.

Gold just moved through $5,500/oz.

Incredible.

Frustration for many of us PIs is simple: we’re watching the gold price surge day after day, yet KEFI hasn’t re-rated in line with the sector. I don’t think anyone wants more RNS commentary — we’re waiting for milestones. Hopefully 1 February is when we finally see that. I’m patient and happy to sit on my hands, but when every other gold name is moving and we’re not, it’s easy to see why takeover talk surface - and as CT and others point out a higher SP will hedge off taker overs hopefully. We just want to see progress reflected in the share price. HOLD OR GOLD!

@Crazytowner

yes, that all sounds entirely normal to me as well. That’s how I understand a conventional takeover process to work, whether the board recommends it or not. And I think we’re probably aligned that the board would be very unlikely to support anything that doesn’t reflect fair value, with institutions following suit.

As usual, PIs have very little sway in these situations beyond providing liquidity and keeping the lights on. The real decision-makers are the large holders, and I don’t see them backing a low-multiple outcome.

Where my thinking then goes is to the hostile angle, because that’s the only route that really bypasses board support. And even there, I keep coming back to the same things: no meaningful TR-1s, no evidence of stake-building ahead of pressure, no institutions or strategic holders signalling any willingness to exit, and importantly this isn’t a distressed situation anymore. Funding is structured and the path to production is intact.

So I think what we’re both circling around is that an offer may happen at some point, but it’s hard to see any offer succeeding at low multiples of NAV. Which is why I’m still firmly in the production-first camp.

@Crazytowner

enjoy our exchanges. I think it’s healthy for the board to have opposing views.

Where I do see some alignment with your position is on the possibility of a hostile approach. That’s not impossible. What I’m still trying to understand is the mechanism.

For a hostile bid to materialise, someone would need to have accumulated a meaningful stake first. If that were happening, we’d expect to see TR-1s appearing, and we simply aren’t seeing that. On that basis, a hostile move doesn’t feel imminent, if my understanding is correct.

It’s also worth stepping outside the pure PI perspective. Any takeover bid has to satisfy the largest shareholders – institutions and strategic holders with existing arrangements with KEFI. I struggle to see those holders accepting single-digit percentage returns, or a one-off cash exit. Institutions tend to look for long-term value rather than a quick cheque.

For those reasons, I struggle to see a successful takeover path here. Which is why I remain firmly in the camp that we get to production first – and that any bid before then either doesn’t happen or doesn’t succeed.

Hold for gold.

Typo 🫠 - “Even 10p is largely a Tulu Kapi production-only valuation at today’s gold price, not a proper valuation of the Saudi assets or gold mining licences.”

Don’t see a KEFI takeover as remotely likely.

The takeovers being referenced here aren’t apples for apples – they’re apples versus cartons of milk. Different stage, different risk, different economics.

A “43% premium” is PI thinking – a percentage uplift on entry price. Institutions don’t think like that. They look at NAV, asset value, production cashflows and gold price leverage. On those metrics, a few pence plus a headline premium is irrelevant.

Anything south of 10p doesn’t reflect fair value. And even 10p is largely a TealCapi production-only valuation at today’s gold price, not a proper valuation of the Saudi assets or gold mining licences.

Miners don’t buy risk. Takeovers usually come after a mine is built, producing, and has an operating record. KEFI isn’t there yet.

PIs don’t decide this. Larger holders do, and they won’t sign off on a 2–5p giveaway.

My view: hold your nerve, wait for production, do nothing.

This is a cash-generating machine most PIs have never owned before.

Hold for gold.

I’ve just read an article on Zijin Mining’s proposed takeover of Allied Gold. The $4bn all-cash headline sounds big, but the article itself says the premium may be too low given gold prices and Allied’s expected re-rating in 2026. All-cash removes future upside, which is why the analyst says it may be up to shareholders to force a higher offer. Not all takeovers are great value.

@Stebo and @Crazytowner fair points.

Tom Winnifrith has said a takeover is possible and that a buyer could simply deal with Harry by offering him a role, so I don’t rule it out in theory.

What keeps me sceptical is simpler: if this were genuinely easy, why wait until 5p or later? TK has been known for years as a high-grade open-pit asset. If a major wanted it cleanly, they could have moved long before now.

That, to me, suggests it’s not as straightforward as “cash-rich majors will just buy it”, even in a gold bull market. Interesting times ahead.