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Just watched Harry’s latest interview with Edison — easily one of the strongest I’ve seen. A few things stood out.

First, his focus on team welfare and safety, especially recalling past kidnappings, was both grounding and reassuring. It’s good to see leadership with the right priorities.

Second, the mention of potential lithium and other mineral projects in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia was a genuine surprise — and a major positive. It broadens KEFI’s long-term story beyond gold, which few of us had fully appreciated.

Third, for those speculating about a buyout, I think this interview quietly puts that to bed. KEFI appears deeply integrated with Ethiopia’s broader development and financing framework, and it’s clear that relationship isn’t something easily “bought out.”

For me, the takeaway is simple: KEFI’s five-year horizon looks far more ambitious and diversified than many expected. The “jam tomorrow” far behind us.

Long-term holders, stay the course. Hold onto those millions of millions of shares. ££££££££ cash machine in dividends.

Thanks to KEFIGOLD for putting up the link to the Edison video.

@ElectricLion

I’m in exactly the same position. I didn’t top-slice either — at the time it just felt too risky. With hindsight, of course, it stings a bit knowing I could have freed up around £120k and still held the same number of shares, or increased my holding by 50% if I’d reinvested after the dip. But that’s all hindsight.

Where I’ve landed now is a place of quiet confidence. The risk has dropped so much that I no longer feel the need to watch it every day — this one can just tick along in the background. The mine will be built, gold will be poured, and dividends will come.

It’s a bit of an anticlimax not sitting on that “what-might-have-been” half-million pre-production valuation, but I’m still well up overall. The ifs and buts won’t matter in two years’ time. I didn’t buy this to trade — I bought it to invest. Long-term holder, through and through.

Reading through the Edison note, what stands out for me isn’t what’s behind us, but what’s ahead. The next big market trigger for KEFI won’t be paperwork or announcements — it’ll be drawdowns. That’s when funds are actually released and construction physically begins.

KEFI hasn’t used the phrase “Notice to Proceed,” but in project-finance terms, that’s effectively what drawdown represents — the signal that all the conditions are met and the lenders have given the green light.

That’s when I think we’ll start to see the hungrier institutional money arrive. Right now, it’s still retail and early-risk capital. Once the first funds flow, KEFI moves from funded project to active build. And that’s when sentiment — and valuation — change fast.

My view on the takeover talk

Personally, I think a takeover is almost entirely unlikely. The financing package, the due diligence process, and all the binding agreements between KEFI and the Ethiopian government make that scenario very hard to imagine. The project structure has been negotiated and approved at a national level — I just don’t see how an external party could simply buy KEFI out without unravelling those agreements.

Let’s stick to filings, not fear.

Dilution @Crisu

June & Sept 2025 RNS/Q&A: the ~US$100m equity-risk piece is being raised at the project/subsidiary level, not via a big PLC placing. (Check KEFI Q&A and Interims.)

On the record (Tom Winifred’s BearCast): KEFI’s sharebroker said there is no instruction to issue shares at PLC level.

Broker warrants in Oct were a tiny fraction of shares in issue — not “significant dilution.” (See October RNS.)

Timing @Vitautas

Interims: US$240m debt offered/accepted; development scheduled to begin Oct 2025. Saying “won’t start” isn’t aligned with the company’s own schedule. (See Interims/Q&A.)

Cash at closing

KEFI states past costs will be recognised as equity or reimbursed at closing. Amount not disclosed yet; watch the closing RNS. (Not a “rebate” in company language.)

Takeaway: “That’s one way to see it.” The documents point the other way. Let’s anchor on the RNS trail and the broker’s on-record line—no PLC placing instruction and closing determines reimbursements.

Apologies for another post in such quick succession, but according to Google the share price has actually closed 4% up — and on investigation, it looks like we had a very savvy buyer.

Today’s moral:

Gold fell, KEFI caught the flu, the bed-wetters sold, and one calm soul quietly bought £107,000 worth while the rest panicked over crumbs. The price closed up 4%. The mine’s still a decade-long cash machine in the making, but some people trade it like a scratch card.

So here’s a creative interpretive poem:

“The Panic and the Wise”

When gold sneezed, the traders fled,

Their courage lost, their screens all red.

One steady hand, while others shook,

Swept up the shares the weak forsook.

That’s how the wealthy keep their wealth —

By buying fear in perfect health.

The mine keeps ticking, slow and deep,

While nervous hands just lose their sleep.

There’s a lot of noise out there right now — big macro-geopolitical events, gold being offloaded, stop-losses triggering — the usual cycle. But as always, the dips have been heavily bought. You’ve got to believe there are major forces at play here: China, U.S. trade positioning, central bank movements — all shaping the gold price in the short term.

What really matters, though, is the long term — and for that, we can be grateful that it’s Harry Adams steering KEFI. Imagine if it were one of the pant-wetting, non-invested, easily-spooked types we see on this very board. We’d have sunk long ago.

I try to keep my own analysis sober and evidence-based, and the truth is simple: the fundamentals haven’t changed. No one seems to be talking about the internal rate of return figures that were quoted — 95% is the lower bound, and that’s ultra-conservative. The upper bound is 165%, and that’s based purely on known fundamentals today — not on projections, future discoveries, or expanded development.

Even Tom Winifrith pointed out (yes, I finally decided to pay for his Bearcast) that even if KEFI’s ownership came in as low as 70%, that would represent a bear case — and an unlikely one at that. In reality, he said, 80% or higher is far more probable.

If you’re a long-term holder, you know what you’re in for. We’ll look back on 21 October 2025 and laugh — or better yet, look back in the third year of dividends, when those who stayed strong and held as many shares as they could are collecting real profit.

This project’s IRR isn’t just good — it’s phenomenal. It’s a cash machine in the making.

So yes, markets will wobble, the weak will panic, and the usual noise will rise and fall. But thank goodness it’s Harry Adams keeping the KEFI candle burning.

Broker Tavira states explicitly that it has not been engaged to do a placing as Kefi has sufficient cash to meet its needs.

As private investors panic Tavira tells us that institutional investors are “bemused” by the sell off on bogus rumours.

The shares are a BUY

I’ve said it before, and anyone with a bit of nous knows it — the real re-rate comes when institutions buy in. Now that the debt’s signed, KEFI will be on the meeting agenda for plenty of funds who’ll be watching closely. As I mentioned in my last post, once the two remaining execution risks are mitigated — the equity package completed and the first drawdown confirmed — that’s when institutions will want to take proper positions.

It’s humbling to finally get the news we’ve been waiting for and then watch the share price sink straight after. But it’s not unexpected. The market wanted perfection, and what we got was reality — a signed deal with a few conditions left to tick off. My guess is some traders took their profit thinking it would dip, which triggered others to sell on stop losses, and the snowball just got bigger. That’s AIM psychology at work.

Congratulations to Harry and the team, and a special shout-out to Roger who’s been replying to my emails. And to all the long-term holders who’ve stuck it out through the grind – Stebo, Crazy, Alanos and others who’ve kept the board sane.

The US $240 m debt package is signed. That’s a big deal. The major binary risk has finally gone. The story has moved from “will it fund?” to “can they execute?” And as many have said, including KEFI themselves, it’s a vanilla project – straightforward geology, strong economics, and now financed.

Is there anything scary in the RNS? Not really. But there are two real watch-outs. The first is the equity-risk capital, about US $60 m still to close. The final structuring will decide whether KEFI retains 70 % or closer to 85 % of Tulu Kapi. If you haven’t been following every RNS from 2022 and 2023, that 70 % figure may have come as a bit of a surprise. The second is drawdown timing – the debt’s signed, but the money won’t actually flow until the equity is finalised and the EGM approvals are done.

My sober thoughts: the next big value-unlock steps are clear – complete the equity package and confirm KEFI’s final percentage, announce the first drawdown, and show visible project progress. That’s when the market starts valuing execution rather than potential.

AIM being AIM, a drop on good-but-incomplete news is textbook. Traders cash in quick, the impatient drift off, and long-term holders get their nerve tested. But the fundamentals just improved.

So yes – the long-term holder does deserve an ice cream. Debt signing marks the moment we moved from uncertainty to delivery. I’m buying my ice cream, but I’m keeping the champagne corked until after the EGM. By New Year’s Eve, I think we’ll be celebrating properly. And by the end of this year, I’ll be looking for a plumber who can finally fix my water pressure so I can have a hot shower with decent pressure – courtesy of KEFI. Or maybe I’ll just be buying myself a new house.

TheMagnacarta

What is this between you and TW about s donkey?

Cheap shares getting scooped up.

My crystal furry balls are telling me: radio silence until the RNS that says “signed.”

It’s got to be this week.

Obvious as it sounds, I’ve got a tingling feeling it’ll be tomorrow.

Hey Alanos,

Thanks for posting that update about TW — really appreciate you keeping everyone in the loop. I know you’ve already shared the key points, but if you’ve got a minute, could you expand a bit on what TW actually said?

As I’ve mentioned in a few other posts, KEFI’s still got that African discount hanging over it — and with it comes the usual bureaucracy that tests our patience! I was all set for a celebratory Chinese takeaway tonight, but looks like it’ll have to wait until Monday. A few more details from you might just cheer me up in the meantime.

Cheers,

You can buy on HL

It takes real balls to be out of Keffie tonight.

While most sit in safety, the brave step outside.

To those watching from the sidelines: courage is not the absence of fear—it’s the decision to act anyway.

As a general once said: “Build me a son … who will be strong enough to know when he is weak, and brave enough to face himself when he is afraid.” — Douglas MacArthur

So get out there. Because those who never take a shot never write history.

30 hours... so tomorrow. Perfect!

Hi Alanos,

Is that on level 2? thanks :) - anything from bearcast too?

Warrants, Signing Week, and a Bit of Perspective

Interesting RNS today .....confirmation that signing is expected this week.

I’ve been looking back through the recent RNSs and Note 8 in the June 2025 interim results and found some useful detail on the warrants. There are roughly 223 million outstanding, mostly between 0.55 p and 0.70 p. If all were converted, KEFI would receive around £1.2–£1.5 million, and total dilution would be about 2.4 % — not something to lose sleep over.

So if we see another “exercise of warrants” RNS this week, it’s probably just part of the final tidy-up or a show of confidence from holders who want to be positioned before signing, not a negative sign.

A functioning gold mine is ultimately a cash machine for those who’ve been patient enough to hold through the grind. I think most of us long-term holders have been right to chase off the obviously malicious posters ....... alternative views are always welcome, but deliberate disruption isn’t. I’ve got about a dozen filtered now, which says it all.

Well done to Harry, Roger, and the rest of the team. I’ll admit, I’m a little in disbelief that this might be the week that changes mine and my family’s life. Looking forward to the day I can finally afford a shower with decent water pressure .....and no temperature swings when someone else in the house decides they need to tap, need to flush a toilet, need to use the water.

Here’s to it.

MagnaCarta’s scaremongering again — Trump tariffs, FTSE crash, gold collapse, crypto meltdown… the usual doomsday routine.

Here’s the thing: when markets shake, money doesn’t vanish .... it moves. It looks for growth.

And KEFI, once the financing is signed off, is one of the few places where genuine growth potential still exists. In a way, all this market chaos only makes KEFI more appealing. We’re not tied to global sentiment — we’re waiting on one key de-risking event.

Bring on the noise. Money has to go somewhere, and when it does, it tends to flow toward value and upside. KEFI fits both.