Member Info for MF2017

fair point, stringer. - but i am with crazy t..

personally, i’d just like to avoid getting to the very end of august and then hearing, in the early hours of september 1st, “ah—*******s, we missed it.” if it’s looking unlikely, that’s when you hope the management team steps in and informs the market—before the clock runs out, not after.

not quite sure what rainy weather has to do with signing off finances—someone floated that earlier too—but hey, i’m already invested balls-deep, so yes: my fate, my funds, and my... dignity are squarely in harry’s hands.

i might drop him an email, but let’s be honest—unless it’s rns-worthy, he’s not going to say anything new. so for now, it’s a case of be brave, drink tea, and try not to stare at the screen too much.

let’s have faith in our leader. i’m still in, still hopeful, and still steeping my tea.

Harry said by end of August — not 31st July, not lunchtime today. Let’s not confuse patience with panic.

Now untwist your knickers, put the kettle on, and remember: “Fear is a reaction. Courage is a decision.” – Winston Churchill.

Nope!

Looks like the early crowd is already in.

Judging by recent buying and volume patterns, I’d say most PIs and any institutions able to take a speculative position (within their compliance frameworks) have likely done so by now.

Now it feels like the market is holding its breath, waiting for the financing outcome. Once that drops, we shift from speculative positioning to the next wave — the investors who need confirmation, not just conviction.

The Psychology of 1.5p — Anchors and Brass Balls

I’ve been reading Never Split the Difference and Thinking, Fast and Slow — both explain how anchoring bias clouds our thinking. That’s exactly what I think is happening with this 1.5p “target.” It didn’t come from project fundamentals — it came from Harry’s share scheme, where he can sell if the price holds above 1.5p for a few days. Somehow, that vesting condition has morphed into what feels like a market ceiling. But this 1.5p anchor is a psychological artefact, not a rational valuation.

What’ll be fascinating is what Harry actually does when we get there. He’s always said he’s taken shares instead of cash, and to be fair, the man’s waited longer than most of us. If he sells £100k or so for a new car or a well-earned break — fair enough. But if he cashes in everything he’s owed at once, that’ll tell its own story. I’ll be watching closely — and I suspect I won’t be the only one.

If you want perspective, look at Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV) — currently trading around 1.4p, with no financing agreement, 18+ months away from construction, and a recent pivot to Bitcoin treasury strategy. KEFI, on the other hand, is close to funding a fully permitted, low-cost, open-pit gold project. That said, I don’t expect fireworks the day funding lands — more likely a slow climb until we creep near a penny, and then FOMO kicks in. Once that starts, I suspect people won’t want to be left holding regrets. Of course, this is just my crystal ball talking, freshly polished over a Friday Chinese takeaway. Still no joy on the water pressure, but I wish you all a warm night — literally and financially. 😄

Hi Doze — thanks for your thoughts.

Just to clarify: I’m not suggesting anyone hold for the full mine life. My own view is that the real value will emerge within the next 18–24 months, which actually fits within the holding window you mentioned for HotRocketStocks — so I think we’re broadly aligned there.

My issue is with the idea of selling at 1.2–1.5p the moment funding is secured. That’s a major de-risking event — arguably the major one — and often the start of serious upside. Why sell just as the risk-reward profile flips in your favour?

As for Tom/HSR, let’s not forget they called for the same “average down” move just last month with Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV). I followed that tip, averaged down, and it worked out well — and sure enough, after things improved, Tom posted a follow-up saying hold on, there’s more to come.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a similar turnaround here with KEFI — assuming Tom can put his personal grudge with Harry to one side. At the end of the day, money talks.

Appreciate the discussion — makes the board stronger when we all kick the tyres on these arguments.

HotRocketStocks have just released another update on KEFI, urging people to average down on their losses. It opens with an apology for previous tips, then dives straight into slating Harry Adams, calling him overpaid and blaming him for past decisions. Below is my response to that article, which I’ve posted in the comments section. Curious to know what others here think.

Why would anyone sell at 1.2–1.5p post-funding?

Tom, this sounds almost identical to what you said the last time funding looked imminent. And as I said then, I’ll say again now:

Why on earth would you sell at 1.2–1.5p the moment funding is secured?

Full funding is a major de-risking milestone — not the end of the story, but the beginning of serious value being unlocked. TK is an open-pit, low-cost project with relatively straightforward construction. First gold pour is targeted for H2 2027. It’s a long game, but a very real one.

If anything, a derisked, fully funded KEFI should attract entirely new institutional interest — and we haven’t even priced in the Saudi upside yet. Taking a little profit off the table is understandable, but calling 1.5p a target in that context feels absurdly premature.

I get that you’re still frustrated that Adams didn’t take your advice two years ago — and that might colour your view. But let’s assess the present facts, not past ego. Once funding lands, the gap between NAV and market cap will start closing. Why exit just before that begins?

Who was it that called the wolf from the forest, hoping the share price would dip just enough to top up after payday?

Well—wish granted. Happy topping up!

P.S. To the doom-mongers worried about placings:

One thing I’ve noticed—placings usually come after the share price climbs and we start thinking we’re in the clear. That’s when they hit. So with the current dip, I’m not seeing it. Based on what Harry and the team have communicated, there’s no stated need for one either. Of course, I don’t have a crystal ball, and yes, we’ve had a few surprise placings before—but with signing this close, it just doesn’t add up. Let’s hope I’m right.

I’ve just read a suggestion that KEFI might carry out a fundraise in order to pay a dividend.

Let’s be blunt: if any company did that, it would be a flashing red flag for institutional and retail investors alike. You don’t raise capital from investors only to hand it back as a dividend. That’s not just poor capital allocation — it’s financial nonsense.

It’s one thing to stir debate or be contrarian. It’s another to float ideas so detached from reality that they border on gaslighting. Suggesting KEFI would sabotage its own financing strategy just to dish out a symbolic dividend is either deeply uninformed or deliberately provocative. At best, it's moronic. At worst, it's toxic.

We’re dealing with a company that’s survived a civil war, navigated a frontier jurisdiction with no previous mechanisms for international investment, and somehow stayed in the game when many others would have folded. That takes grit and credibility.

Yes, we’re bored. But let’s not be moronic. 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🍆

A compelling realignment note for my crystal ball. Brilliant insight you've pointed out. Lol to AIM

@Fantasies — thanks for reminding me.

You're right — Harry did make that passing comment about the Askari situation, and I was aware of it. I should’ve clarified that what I meant was that there’s been nothing said since then, especially with the AGM behind us and new speculation bubbling up. So cheers for the nudge — I’ll wear that one.

Now, here comes a speculative musing that might stir a few pots 🍲 — which I don’t mind at all. Let’s call it my crystal ball moment:

🔮 Post-signing (hopefully next week or early August), I actually think the share price reaction might be muted. I could imagine some "RNS-drop-then-fade" behaviour, maybe a spike to 0.8p, then a period of oscillation as the market digests the news and watches for drawdowns and site activity.

If all goes well with construction and steady delivery, I could see 2–3p by Christmas, and maybe — just maybe — 5p this time next year. A lot would depend on execution and delivery rhythm, of course.

Re Bonkers’ earlier point about top-slicing — I’ve never done it. Probably to my detriment! (UJO still haunts me... I once sat on a 98% gain and watched it unravel. I should’ve been slicing onions, not diamond hands...)

Everyone’s got their own strategy, and I’ve got no beef with anyone locking in gains. Personally, I’ve gone in heavy on KEFI (22 million shares and counting). I am in it for the long haul — but with eyes open.

I’d love to hold 10 million+ shares right through to 2028 dividends and beyond, maybe even a decade if the story plays out — but that depends on what unfolds over the coming months and years. I’ll stay adaptable, and let the data and delivery inform my decisions.

Always happy to hear other people’s takes. Let the crystal balls clash 💥

@Rob — thanks for posting the Askari link. Here’s a quick summary and a bit of context in case it helps others.

✅ The ASX release (23 July) from Askari Metals (ASX:AS2) confirms they’re in discussions with Ethiopia’s Ministry of Mines — but crucially, no licenses have been granted.

They say they’re “hopeful” about their application, but the language is speculative. There’s no confirmation of exact license boundaries, overlap with KEFI, or timing of approval. It’s framed as a response to media speculation, not a project announcement.

Now for some broader context:

Askari is a tiny outfit, with no production capability, a modest market cap, and appears to be in the pre-funding stage for this speculative venture.

If — and it’s a big if — they were awarded licenses near Tulu Kapi, it’s not hard to imagine a joint venture or earn-in arrangement with KEFI, who actually have boots on the ground, a full project infrastructure, and are (hopefully) about to build a billion-dollar mine.

It’s worth asking: who’s more likely to be trusted with resource development by the Ethiopian government? A junior explorer with no local track record, or KEFI — a company with full project plans, compliance approvals, and syndicate backing close to the finish line?

I’m not dismissing Askari — these things take time and the MoM can do what it wants. But based on tone and facts, this isn’t a KEFI-killer. If anything, it shows the region’s heating up. And that, long-term, may benefit KEFI’s positioning.

Let’s see if Harry comments. But for now, I’m watching — not panicking.

Oh yes, I see my mistake now. Apologies.

Winstonwolf, respectfully—that’s factually wrong. Gold’s already well above $3,000/oz right now (over $3,400/oz as of today), and has been holding above that level for some time.

Strategically flawed too: macro drivers like central bank buying, de-dollarization, persistent inflation, and global uncertainty make it hard to build a serious bear case for gold right now.

Genuinely curious though—what are you seeing that all the analysts (and myself) don’t? What’s your argument for a drop below $3,000/oz? Always open to hearing the other side.

From my understanding of public info

Funding: What’s Actually Happening? Parent vs Subsidiary Level

Just to clarify the funding situation, based on public updates:

🔹 June 2025 Q&A Presentation

Harry mentioned a possible $5–10M raise — originally assumed this might be done at KEFI plc level after share price improvement.

🔹 17 July 2025 AGM RNS & Presentation

It’s now clear most funding is being structured at subsidiary/project level:

TKGM (Ethiopia): Local institutions subscribing to EthioPrefs (non-convertible, USD-linked instrument).

GMCO (Saudi): International private equity & local partners funding project-level development.

Importantly, KEFI highlighted that this strategy reduces dilution risk at parent company level (KEFI plc).

🔹 Key Takeaway:

Fundraising still needed, but it’s now targeted at project/subsidiary level — not via dilutive parent raises. Unless this changes in future RNSs, that’s good news for long-term shareholders.

Worth watching upcoming RNSs closely for any shift.

— MF2017

Honestly, Manu, I’d be as bitter as you if my money had been locked up for 10 years. I’ve just exited UJO after being trapped since 2017—that’s the saga I really ballsed up, so I get it. At one point, I was sitting on a 98% profit… then the Queen died, and I got distracted. I really do miss Liz Truss and what looked like a “drill baby drill” moment. Within those three weeks, I missed the ball completely. Classic mistake: held too long, death spiral, loss. But KEFI… KEFI will be my saving grace.

And to your question: “Any money coming in yet?” Mate, you can’t get money in until the gold’s out the ground. I’m sure even you’d agree civil war’s a pretty decent obstacle to mine-building.

Maybe you’re right about the past. Sounds horrendous. But to me, that’s not the KEFI I see today, even if it’s still the same CEO. The situation looks different now.

Hard to generate revenue before you dig up the gold, Manu.

But fair question: no, KEFI hasn’t made money yet. TKGM financing is still targeted to sign by end of August, with construction ahead and first gold pour expected in late 2027. Saudi projects are progressing but not cash-generating yet.

Here’s my question for you though: if KEFI’s so doomed, why are banks, contractors, and funds like Ruffer Gold still involved? Institutions don’t usually waste time on lost causes. What do you think they’re missing?

And just to be transparent — I’ve genuinely bet the house on KEFI. 22 million shares, over £120k of my portfolio, and yes, that’s pretty much my life savings. Balls deep isn’t just a phrase in my case.

That said… soberly optimistic. I believe I’ve made an evidence-based call, given the gold price, KEFI’s stage, and the broader context. But we’ll see.

Why would anyone sell any share at this point? even 1 share.... mad to do now. mad!!!

A wise post sharezy. fortune favours the brave and the patient. - patience at the bottom.

Hi Rob. Watched the video. Shady as hell.