Member Info for MF2017

Hi Alanos, hope you don’t mind me asking a bit of a noob question. I saw your post about the 20 million trade likely being a worked sell, but I’m struggling to follow the logic. My personal take—though I fully admit this could be giddy optimism—is that it looked more like a buy to me. I’ve had my own buys show up as sells before, so I know the trade tags aren’t always reliable.

I guess my confusion is: wouldn’t a sell of that size have had a bigger downward impact on the share price yesterday? Especially given the steady buying pressure we saw. If you could help explain your thinking a bit more, I’d really appreciate it.

Thanks in advance – genuinely trying to learn from others here.

I know this might sound giddy—maybe even naive, given the valid scepticism from some corners—but I’m leaning towards cautious optimism. I honestly think the KEFI team have set the August deadline as wise breathing space, knowing full well they’re in a position to deliver (hopefully earlier). It feels like a rare moment of sensible expectation management, not another over-promise.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say, “We’ll know before the end of July”… but I did wake up this morning thinking I might treat the family to a Chinese takeaway tonight, if that’s any indicator of my cautious optimism.

And here’s my humble dream if everything goes well: maybe, just maybe, I’ll finally get a warm shower with decent water pressure in the evening—when the rest of the family are using the bathroom, flushing toilets, or washing up. A small luxury, but a dream nonetheless.

Hi Rasoolb,

Thanks for sharing your valuation breakdown—looks solid, but I’m curious about a few points:

1. Risk Adjustment:

How did you calculate the 1.41p/share risk-adjusted figure? What risk factors are you applying?

2. Saudi JV Contribution:

How did you arrive at the Saudi JV contribution to get from 4.40p to 4.89p/share? Is that based on project NPVs or estimated FCF?

3. Dividend-Discount Valuation:

What discount rate (or WACC) are you using for the 1.65p/share DCF? Over what period?

4. Upside Projections:

The 5.46p to 7.33p growth—are you factoring in just metal prices, or derisking milestones too?

5. Share Count:

Are you using ~9.3bn shares in issue for these numbers?

Appreciate your thoughts—keen to understand your assumptions better.

I don’t like criticising other posters. Everyone’s entitled to their own view. But here’s a big Brazilian butt: some of the negativity flying around here today is, frankly, nonsense.

Let’s be real: ratification was a major milestone. Harry and the team have explained the delays fairly and reasonably. You might not like the answers, but pretending they’ve not addressed the issues isn’t honest. People saying “the share price hasn’t reacted – so nothing’s changed”? That shows a poor understanding of how the market works.

KEFI is a micro-cap with a billion-dollar project. Institutional money doesn’t pile into micro-caps. Once financing is signed, construction starts, and the market cap sustainably moves upwards (think £100m+), then KEFI hits radars. That’s when positions are taken. The market doesn’t “lie” – it digests slowly, especially with companies like this.

To the long-term holders – good luck. I love the phrase ‘generational wealth’ because that’s the opportunity here (big ‘if’, yes – still risks). But if KEFI delivers gold production and sustained dividends, my kids are set. That’s why I’ve gone in deep: over 22 million shares now. Even small share price rises move me into the blue, finally.

As for the usual critics – post your alternative view, absolutely. I value challenge. Just keep it constructive. And Bonkers – mate, maybe make your posts a bit more succinct? We get your angle. (I see irony here, Bonkers, 🤭.)

To everyone else: eyes on the fundamentals. This is why we invested.

— MF2017

Great point crazytown. I am perhaps less wise and reading between lines and interpreting. Thanks gor point this insight out. Even better rns now lol!

My take on today’s RNS? Solid work from Harry and the team. This feels like more than just the usual “intent” language — it’s clearly aimed at long-term holders and potential new investors, listing concrete progress across Ethiopia and Saudi. Importantly, the tone shows refinement. Communication is improving — exactly what I hoped for after comparing KEFI to Empire Metals recently.

The mention of a special dividend as a possibility in 2028 is also notable. It feels like a carrot for long-term holders like me — an incentive to stay invested beyond signing and construction, into production and actual cash generation. If that materialises, it’ll be a cherry on the cake for those of us holding through the tough years.

The Saudi asset update offers some context but still no firm decision — so that’s something I hope will become clearer soon.

Overall, a positive RNS, with a sense of control returning to KEFI’s narrative. Signing still expected for August. I’m patient, holding, and more encouraged than before.

Tom W’s Emotional Wobble, Not Sage Advice

Tom Winiforth pumped KEFI hard as a “strong buy” for two years. Now, after one more fundraise (in a frontier jurisdiction where these things aren’t exactly unusual), he’s advising to exit at 1p—even if funding lands.

Personally, that looks like an emotional wobble, not sage investment advice.

Surely funding is the key de-risking moment? Selling then makes no sense. But this seems to be Tom’s pattern: pump, frustration when CEOs don’t deliver his quick win, then dump—and move on to the next stock (Opti, anyone?).

In contrast, KEFI’s fundamentals look stronger than ever.

Would be good to hear if others agree—or disagree.

KEFI vs Empire Metals – A Thought

A great comment on ShareTalk today highlighted how KEFI’s embassy presentation confirmed Ethiopia is open for business—and that KEFI now has real delivery momentum. I found that encouraging.

It also made me think about Empire Metals. Very different project and jurisdiction, of course, but their share price has surged—driven not by production but by savvy communication and consistent RNS management. That phrase “finessed by RNS” stuck with me. Empire have shaped sentiment well.

I hope, based on the Q&A, resettlement progress, and the embassy event, that KEFI is beginning to shift its media strategy too—not towards hype, but towards clear framing of genuine progress. Hearing tasks are three months ahead of schedule was also a real boost. Maybe tomorrow’s AGM will confirm this is an “underpromise and overdeliver” moment.

Finally, as a side note, I did email KEFI a few months ago, suggesting they build more buffer into their timelines—better to surprise the market early than apologise late. Not claiming credit at all. Who am I? Just a small investor. But today’s progress looks promising.

Regardless, I want to congratulate Harry and the KEFI team for their progress and patience. I hope tomorrow’s AGM focuses not on naysayers, but on long-term holders and potential new investors.

Ethiopian Embassy Presentation – A Positive Signal?

Personally, I see KEFI presenting at the Ethiopian Embassy in London as a fantastic signal. Yes, I understand some might say "we’ve heard all this before" — but actually, this isn’t just another hopeful RNS. This is a different scenario. Presenting at that level, in London, suggests serious momentum behind the scenes.

And let’s not forget: resettlement work isn’t accelerated for no reason. People simply don’t get moved unless something real is coming. That, to me, confirms the groundwork for project execution is being laid — not just talked about.

What I’m curious about is this: some posters have started suggesting funding for the Saudi asset might already be in place, or close to it. I’d love to know what’s driving that speculation. What links are people seeing between developments in Ethiopia and KEFI’s position in Saudi?

All thoughts welcome. Just let’s stick to evidence where possible — this is a key phase.

– MF2017

Typical!

Just as I post my last comment asking how people found the presentation… KEFI releases an RNS announcing it. Well done, KEFI – and for the record, I did check for an RNS before I posted!

At least that answers my question about notifications.

Thanks Tintin — and Critical 30-Day Window: What Could Delay Signing?

Thanks, Tintin, also for sharing the presentation. Can I ask — how did you know it was released? I check the KEFI website now and then, but I’m not on Twitter, X, or the Telegram group, so I’d genuinely like to know how others spot these things so fast. Not a criticism of KEFI — but as an investor, it does make me wonder: could KEFI do more to notify shareholders when new materials are released? A simple email alert perhaps?

Now, onto what caught my attention:

The next 30 days (July–August) are critical. KEFI needs to get the finance package signed before certain certifications expire (the presentation suggests some expire within 30 days). If this isn’t achieved, signing risks slipping into late Q3 or even Q4 due to needing re-certification.

I’d really like to know:

What could realistically hold us up during this period?

What practical obstacles remain, now that all conditions and certifications seem to be lined up?

Please — no Harry bashing. Not interested in conspiracies or management frustration posts. My question is about the Ethiopian context and real operational risks.

Would genuinely welcome informed views.

Some people have pushed back against me on this, saying that the update on the Saudi asset before the AGM isn’t that important. I strongly disagree, and I’ll lay out my reasoning below.

We were told in the investor Q&A to expect an update before the AGM. For me, that sets a clear expectation. If the update isn’t going to be what investors were led to anticipate—meaning actual news or a concrete development—then I believe it’s essential that KEFI clearly explains why that update isn’t available yet, and ideally provides a realistic indication of when it might be. Simply saying “there’s no update” isn’t enough, in my view. We need transparency about the reason for the delay and what timeline investors can now reasonably expect.

This is especially important given the long-standing criticism of KEFI regarding repeated timeline slippage. While Harry gave a good explanation of the broader challenges in the recent Q&A, I don’t think it’s reasonable to rely on that explanation alone for every instance going forward. If delays are justified, the reasons should be shared promptly and clearly.

From my perspective, moments like this are exactly where trust can be rebuilt—or further damaged. Saying nothing until the AGM risks reinforcing concerns about communication gaps. We’re trying to rebuild market confidence, and consistency here would help.

In short: if no substantive update is available, then that itself should be formally explained before the AGM, along with a realistic sense of when clarity is likely.

Not that my opinion carries any particular weight, but that’s my view. Good luck to all.

Interesting exchange between you both. From my understanding, and after looking into it, I think Bonkers is right on this one.

RNS releases (Regulatory News Service) are formal, regulated disclosures. Companies are legally required to use them for price-sensitive information under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules (DTR 2.2) and the UK Market Abuse Regulation (MAR). Anything that could impact share price must go through RNS to ensure equal access to all investors.

Q&A responses, website updates, and similar channels don’t meet the same legal disclosure standards and aren’t considered equivalent.

In case it’s useful, here are some of the sources I looked at:

FCA Handbook DTR 2.2.1R

UK MAR – Article 17

London Stock Exchange Disclosure Guidance

Not that my opinion matters in any way. Good luck, all.

AGM Week: One Concern, One Suspicion

With only a few working days left before the AGM, two things stand out.

1. Still Waiting on the Saudi Update

At the recent online Q&A, KEFI said more detail on the Saudi asset would be shared before the AGM. That hasn’t appeared yet. It still might—but it’s getting close now.

2. Askari Metals – Licence Chatter and Timing

There’s renewed noise around Askari Metals, an ASX-listed junior holding licences once tied to KEFI. Their exploration capacity seems limited, yet there’s talk of a fundraise and speculation that they may flip licences back to KEFI.

Here’s my suspicion:

If Askari is trying to extract value from those licences now, it suggests they believe KEFI is on the cusp of signing. And if that’s the case, perhaps those closer to the situation already sense what we’re all waiting to hear.

I’m staying patient—but I’ve noticed that over the past year, KEFI often releases significant updates right up against key events. That can frustrate those hoping the market has time to digest the news ahead of an AGM. Still, I recognise the timing of communications doesn’t always align with business realities. We’ll see soon enough.

What do people think about my suspicion?

Likelihood of Takeover Post–First Gold Pour??? - unlikely too.

Worth noting: the only stage when a takeover becomes realistically more likely — in any mining company — is after first gold pour, when:

The project is derisked: construction risk is gone, permitting is complete, and gold is literally coming out of the ground.

Revenue is flowing: buyers can calculate payback, margins, and future expansion with real numbers.

Cash generation allows funding of other assets (e.g. KEFI’s 15% in Saudi Arabia), making the whole portfolio more valuable.

That’s standard across the industry.

But here’s what doesn’t add up: if KEFI has waited all these years, taken all the political risk, negotiated the consortium, endured the dilution, and finally turned TKGM into a functioning cash-generating mine — why would it sell then?

Especially when:

KEFI would finally have free cashflow to fund its Saudi expansion.

Selling would cut off long-term shareholder value just as it begins.

The upside from future exploration or production optimisation would go to someone else.

In short, it’s not impossible, but it’s illogical — unless the offer was so high it couldn’t be refused. And even then, many long-term PIs would rather see the company build, not bail.

We’ve all seen the takeover chatter floating around lately — popping up on a couple of bulletin boards. No source, no RNS, no broker hints. Just the kind of feverish rumour that surfaces when tension is high and news is near.

So here’s a calm take:

1. The finance deal is built around KEFI.

KEFI is the operator, the project sponsor, the one who’s signed binding commitments with the banks and government. You can’t just slot someone else in. A takeover would likely trigger change-of-control clauses, and potentially unwind or delay what’s already signed.

2. Syndicate partners (like AFC, TDB, government agencies) are aligned with KEFI.

Their green lights are based on KEFI’s team, governance, and execution plans. If another player wanted in, they’d need to re-win trust, re-do due diligence, maybe even renegotiate timelines. That’s not a “quick win.”

3. The timing doesn’t fit.

A takeover pre-signing? Implausible — it would derail everything. Post-signing? Still messy, and only feasible if a bidder is ready to deal with the syndicate and regulators. It’s not impossible. But it’s unlikely. Especially when the value is still low, and KEFI’s biggest upside is just about to unlock.

Some questions worth asking:

Has KEFI disclosed any review of “strategic options”?

Would a change of control breach existing agreements?

Why now — and who benefits from spreading this?

Bottom line?

There’s no credible signal of a takeover. KEFI’s entire setup makes one hard to execute. And until TKGM signs, we’re still in “value lock” territory. Let’s focus on real progress — not distractions.

All thoughts welcome — but as ever, let’s try to keep it evidence-based.

— MF2017

Come on Buko... yiu really have lowered the bar on posts- poo ??? 😕🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️

We are all basically waiting. Let's get back to sober informative exchanges.

Great point Buko. Perhaps AGM?

I’ve been reflecting on something that hasn’t been mentioned much lately: Tom Winifrith (of Hot Stock Rockets) was once a vocal supporter of KEFI — so his silence during what appears to be a critical phase is… curious. Has anyone seen recent commentary from him?

At the same time, I’m intrigued by the satellite imagery showing clear development at the TK site — particularly the camp footprint. If that is accurate and current, it seems to reinforce the idea that we’re nearing delivery. So it puzzles me how some posters still insist this won’t happen.

Am I missing something? I’d love to hear from those who follow the satellite data closely — or who’ve tracked Winifrith’s past positions. And more broadly, what do informed holders here make of this disconnect between visible ground progress and market sentiment?

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️