Member Info for MF2017

Hi Stebo, thanks again for the excellent discussion.

You asked to see my workings for the risk-weighted valuation I mentioned. I’m happy to share.

This is purely my personal judgment, based on how I see the project de-risking so far and using a simple institutional-style probability stack.

I used 6p as the reference value based on the median of the Edison report and other published broker forecasts I’ve seen.

Here are the probability assumptions I used:

Financing: 90% (syndicate in place, financing package largely agreed)

Regulatory: 70% (permits granted, but Ethiopia remains unpredictable)

Operational build: 60% (project fully designed and engineered, execution risk remains)

Company governance: 70% (past delays but strong recent delivery and strategy)

Geopolitical: 70% (Ethiopia improving but still carries risk premium)

Formula:

0.9 \times 0.7 \times 0.6 \times 0.7 \times 0.7 = 13.2\%

This gave me my base case range of 10–15% chance of hitting ~6p and a 0.52p dividend by 2028.

I’d love your thoughts. Do you think these probabilities are reasonable?

If you use a different probabilistic model, I’d genuinely be interested to see how you approach it and how your numbers differ.

I’m a probabilistic thinker and try to work the maths rather than just cross my fingers. I’ve tried to do a risk-weighted valuation of KEFI, factoring in financing, regulatory risk, delays, and geopolitical risk. I estimate there’s about a 10–15% chance of KEFI hitting ~6p/share and a 0.52p dividend by 2028. I’m happy to share my workings.

I’m not pessimistic. That % should increase with progress. I’m very bullish, heavily invested (~£60k), and patient. My approach is simple: if I hold full size, the first dividend alone would repay my investment.

I know KEFI is still volatile (this is AIM after all). I’ve had good exchanges with Stinger and Stebo recently, who advised not to sell too early (DYOR of course). That’s my dilemma: de-risk at 1–1.5p, or ride it fully to 2028?

Would love some reasoned views from the seasoned investors here: how do you see the odds?

Really informative post Stebo—thanks for the detailed breakdown of potential ounces and grams per tonne. It really highlights the long-term value if KEFI delivers.

The market still undervalues KEFI after years of delays. Recent RNSs are positive, but key TK milestones are still to come.

The proposed 2028 dividend is remarkable at this price. Combined with the project fundamentals, it points to serious long-term upside.

The mention of takeover bids adds a new risk. A short-term gain, but it could cap the long-term returns I’m holding for.

1.5p seems psychological—Harry can sell shares if the price holds there for 5 days. Volatility likely.

If this mine is built and pours gold, the share price changes completely. I don’t expect 5p+ before 2028, but steady growth and those dividends could let me retire at 45 if it hits these numbers.

68 k sold so far today and 104k bought.

Looks like forward buying. Looking forward to good news more like.

Please please make your comment make sense.

Why on earth would Kefi conduct a fund raise at this point?

Two trades and that's your conclusion.

Yes, I cannot as confidently say never again a raise. But to me strategically for institutional investment seeking it would make sense not to run before walking on further exploration and thus time to build our own financing and then look to extend mine life and other projects.

Why would KEFI need to raise any more funds this year? Seriously—why?

They’ve already secured ~$320M for Tulu Kapi, including senior debt, government equity, gold-linked instruments, and strategic investor backing. December’s raise covered early works and prep. Unless something goes badly wrong, they’re funded through to first gold—and with a full year of production, they’ll be generating enough cash to fund future growth themselves.

So who's let news slip and how did they get it? What's coming out be t week?

Friday FOMO action from side line PIs today caused rise.

Nice.

All on actually news now.

Appreciate the advice. Yes, it's a lot of shares to consider. Valued our exchanges. Of course I am hoping fir your outcome. Let's get ratification and financing first and see market response.

MF2017 Response – Clarification on Valuation Approach

Thanks again for the detailed replies — particularly Stebo for taking the time to lay out a full long-term NPV-based model.

To be clear:

My share price estimates are aimed at near-term valuation ranges — i.e., the next 12–18 months — based on the company’s current stage:

Pre-production,

Pre-cashflow,

Financing and Saudi monetization catalysts pending.

I am using published RNS facts (e.g., Hawiah NPV, Tulu Kapi forecasts), applying a moderate sentiment multiplier of 1.3–1.5x to account for upcoming derisking events.

This points toward a near-term share price range of ~1.0p–1.2p.

Stebo’s model — which projects £2.8 billion+ for Tulu Kapi and £75 million for Saudi, resulting in a 21p–26p share price —

is logical but reflects a fully de-risked, full production scenario, based on high future gold prices ($3,000–$5,000/oz) and stable long-term cashflows.

Those numbers are absolutely achievable in theory, but they are not appropriate for near-term valuation forecasting when the company is still awaiting:

Debt finance closure,

Construction launch,

First gold pour,

Proven operational ramp-up.

Also, the 5Moz AUE figure for Saudi is resource-based, not yet Reserve status.

It’s important to differentiate between:

Pragmatic short-term market valuation (pre-cashflow),

and

Long-term full production cashflow valuation (post-2028+).

I remain optimistic — but based on cautious, staged derisking, not assuming immediate 21p valuations without cashflow evidence.

I fully respect everyone's right to project different models — but for this discussion, I will continue basing my numbers only on RNS-published data, not best-case scenario cashflow models several years out.

All the best,

— MF2017

MF2017 – Response: Valuation Clarifications Based on RNS Facts

Thanks to Stebo, Crazytowner, Bonkers, Chique and others for pushing this discussion. I've reviewed all official RNS announcements to verify my analysis.

**On Saudi assets:**

- Hawiah's Post-Tax NPV8%: ~$250M (RNS 15 Nov 2023)

- Jibal Qutman: ~$30-40M (Q3-Q4 2023 presentations)

- Recent resource upgrades (RNS 18 Feb 2025 and RNS 26 Feb 2025) but no new NPV studies published

- Higher valuations (£35-50M) rely on speculative strategic premiums

- My valuation: £10-15M based on project NPVs and KEFI's 15% ownership

**On broader valuation:**

- KEFI near-term market cap: £60-65M (Tulu Kapi + discounted Saudi)

- Base share price: ~0.75-0.8p (7.98B shares)

- Applied 1.3-1.5x sentiment multiplier for upcoming catalysts

- Resulting near-term range: ~1.0-1.2p

**On unrealistic multipliers:**

- Some projections imply 15-20x multipliers on current asset values

- This represents extreme speculation, not cautious optimism

- Such multipliers ignore standard mining sector valuation methods

- Important to distinguish between hope and fundamental analysis

**On timeframes:**

- 10-11p projections need clarification: in 3 months? 6 months? Or post-2027?

- 3-7p range plausible by 2028+ after production, sales, cash collection

- Material uplift requires actual execution, not just announcements

**On paid commentary:**

- Tom Winnifrith and Edison provide optimistic projections but are compensated

- Edison research is commissioned and paid for by KEFI

- Edison explicitly states they don't independently verify all information

- These reports should be viewed as investor marketing, not independent analysis

- Their over-keen estimates likely reflect their commercial relationship

**For context:**

- I'm invested with ~£60,000 in KEFI shares

- Analysis based solely on published RNS facts, not third-party commentary

- I encourage everyone to check RNS announcements and distinguish facts from hopes

All the best,

MF2017

MF2017 Response to STEBO – Updated Valuation Method

Thanks STEBO for your comments on the Saudi valuation. I've revisited my assumptions to ensure they're evidence-based.

**Updated Saudi Asset Valuation:**

- Hawiah NPV: ~$250M

- Jibal Qutman NPV: ~$40M

- Combined NPV: ~$290M

- KEFI's ownership: 15.7%

- KEFI's attributable NPV: $44M (~£35M)

Applying standard 30-40% early-stage discounts gives an estimated sale value of £10M-£15M for KEFI's stake.

**Why Not £100M?**

A £100M valuation would require:

- Buyers paying above NPV (unlikely)

- Treating KEFI's stake as 100% not 15.7%

- No discount for risks or development timelines

**Share Price Estimates:**

- Base case: £60-65M ÷ 7.98B shares = 0.75p-0.81p

- With sentiment multiplier (1.3-1.5): 1.0p-1.2p potential upside

**Pre vs. Post-Production Context:**

- Meaningful uplift realistically occurs after production starts

- 3p-7p range could be realistic by 2028+

- Near-term (2025-2026): 0.75p-1.2p range

- 10p-15p targets require full production success, strong gold prices, debt reduction, and sustained performance

**Summary:**

- Near-term base: 0.75p-0.8p

- Near-term upside: 1.0p-1.2p with smooth milestones

- Longer-term (post-2027/28): 3p-7p if operational targets delivered

Gents I would all any of the penny valuations out there. But they are not near term valuations. They are post production and likely a year after first pour I.e. 2028 as long as no snags.

Crazy towner put some of your estimates and workings on the board. What would you change about my valuation math?

Hey CrazyTowner, good point re: the £50m figure. That’s definitely a conservative placeholder, but here’s why I use it.

KEFI’s latest presentation does quote a $1.2 billion NPV at construction, but that’s:

At the project level (100%)

Pre-financing, pre-dilution

And probably assumes gold at $1,900–$2,000+

KEFI’s current stake is ~45%, so you’re talking around $540 million / £430 million attributable. Even then, given project risk, geopolitical exposure, and production not starting until 2027, the market may not value KEFI at full NPV until derisking milestones are hit (e.g., full finance closure, ground-breaking, or first gold).

That’s why I anchored my market cap estimate closer to £60m near term, giving a share price of ~0.75p to 1.25p based on sentiment uplift. You can always plug in a higher market cap to see what 5p needs—it implies ~£400 million+ valuation.

Error my calcs on shares in issue.

Surestebo, below are some rough estimates based on fundamentals, recent RNS details, and calculations that factor in a sentiment multiplier reflecting market confidence, project risk, and the current gold price. That said, I tend to lean toward the conservative side when estimating share price value.

Rough Calculations (Updated)

Let’s say:

Ethiopia NPV attributable to KEFI: £50m

Saudi JV value to KEFI: £10m

Base Market Cap Estimate: £60m

Sentiment Multiplier: 1.0–1.5

Shares in Issue: ~7.98 billion (as of Jan 2025)

Then:

Low end: £60m ÷ 7.98b = ~0.75p

High end: (£60m × 1.5) ÷ 7.98b = ~1.13p

This aligns with my own view that, with good news and the stars aligning, a near-term price between 1.2p and 2p is achievable. Some are forecasting 5p based on gold prices alone, but I think that’s overly optimistic given KEFI’s location in Ethiopia, early-stage production timeline (first pour expected 2027), and AIM market sentiment.

It’s also worth noting the CEO’s commitment not to sell any of his shares unless the price holds at 1.5p for five consecutive days. That kind of pledge can drive confidence, but it might also act as a psychological ceiling for short-term traders anticipating a sell-off once that mark is hit.

Sure stebo, below are some rough estimates based on fundamentals, recent RNS details, and calculations that factor in a sentiment multiplier reflecting market confidence, project risk, and current gold prices. That said, I tend to lean toward the conservative side when estimating share price values.

Rough Calculations

Let’s say:

Ethiopia NPV attributable to KEFI: £50m

Saudi JV value to KEFI: £10m

Base Market Cap Estimate: £60m

Sentiment Multiplier: 1.0–1.5

Shares in Issue: 4 billion

Then:

Low end: £60m ÷ 4b = 1.5p

High end: (£60m × 1.5) ÷ 4b = 2.25p

Crazy towner. Your price predictions may be valid when in full production and after 2 years of product.

Good news, near term I reckon 1.2 to 2p if stars align.

I said a month or do back. Saudi sale likely August.

Eid end if May.

It's Eid. Unlikely to hear anything this week Saudi sale.

Easter coming in April so same in Ethiopia around that time.

I going to say don't be surprised if it's quiet till May.

Is it Harry's age and off-ramp that us fueling some to speculate on a takeover bid?

Can't see anything concrete otherwise.