Member Info for MF2017

Who is this Magna? Never heard of them.

Hi alanos,

Really appreciate the share — and the quick reply! You’ve put me out of my misery. I had a feeling Mr TW would change his tune, and I don’t think he’ll be recommending a sell post-signing. My guess is he’ll be saying hold, probably through to production.

Thanks again, and good luck for Monday!

Hi everyone,

Tom Winnifrith’s latest Bearcast apparently spends about 30 minutes on KEFI and the LSE Asylum thread. I haven’t been able to listen yet .... does anyone have a decent summary or key points from it?

I subscribe to HotRocket’s Docs newsletter but not the Bearcast, so happy to trade info if anyone wants to swap notes.

Would love to hear what he said

There’s been a fair bit of Harry-bashing again, which always feels like the easy route. Yes, he set self-imposed deadlines — but the market expects timelines. Better to give guidance and slip than to hide behind silence.

We also need to keep context in mind. This is Africa, where major projects move through layers of paperwork, ministries, and approvals. Even in parts of Europe it can take half a dozen signatures to move a file; in Ethiopia it sometimes takes a few extra coffees and a cousin in the right department. That’s just how frontier markets work — relationships and process both matter.

This financing isn’t a simple bank loan either. It’s a multi-party structure with lenders, local investors, and government involvement. That sort of coordination takes time, even when everyone’s aligned.

What we’re really waiting for now is a straightforward update — and it’s looking more like next week.

Know the market you've invested in.

It takes more balls to be out of KEFI this weekend than in.

Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen several small warrant exercises and share issues from KEFI, which naturally raised the question: why now? and is this connected to the long-awaited financing sign-off?

After digging into the RNS trail, it looks like these warrant issuances are most likely part of routine administrative or advisory compensation and possibly a small cash-flow bridge while the larger financing is in its final legal and governmental stages. The exercise prices (around 0.55p–0.70p) are modestly in the money, suggesting these are standard warrants, not opportunistic or panic-driven. In short, they’re unlikely to indicate that the financing is off — more likely they’re housekeeping during a bureaucratic bottleneck.

The real question is the delay in signing. KEFI publicly stated that completion was expected “by the end of September,” and that self-imposed window has now passed. We’re well beyond even the most generous interpretation of “in the coming week,” and the market’s mild drop today probably reflects fatigue rather than fear.

A rational reading of the situation is that the delay sits somewhere between procedural and administrative: Ethiopia’s multi-layered approval process, inter-lender documentation, and final local confirmations often move slower than planned. There’s no evidence of withdrawal or collapse — just silence and slippage. Still, I think the company now has a clear obligation to issue a market update, even if only to confirm progress or revised timing. KEFI themselves set the expectation in their own RNS, so some follow-through is due.

My own position: I’m still holding. I’ve got a sizeable shareholding here, and while others may top-slice for short-term security, I’d rather wait for what’s likely to be a more meaningful rerate post-signing. A few thousand pounds of comfort now doesn’t outweigh the longer-term upside once the financing is confirmed and construction begins.

What I’m watching over the next ten days:

If there’s another round of dilution or warrant activity without any financing update, then concern is justified.

If we get a simple, factual RNS confirming that the deal has been signed — or even that the final signatories are in motion — the market tone changes overnight.

Until then, frustration is understandable, but panic isn’t. Nothing in the pattern so far suggests the financing has fallen apart — it simply looks like a complex closing process that’s taking longer than anyone wanted.

Patience isn’t easy, but when the fundamentals remain intact, it’s usually rewarded.

What specifically would you like thoughts on, longinthetooth1?

Hey MagicOrb, it looks like those were five 10k buys — probably just individual PIs topping up what their ISAs allow. Feels like small retail noise more than anything else. Hard to imagine that kind of volume moving the needle on a billion-dollar project, don’t you think?

Good morning all,

With gold now sitting at around $4,000 an ounce, I’ve been watching the trades go through and it still looks mainly like PIs coming in — small blocks, a few thousand pounds here and there. That’s not institutional money, that’s punt money. It moves quickly, and that’s why we’re getting these little swings up and down.

I think the real re-rating won’t happen until the institutions arrive, and that won’t be immediately after signing either. It’ll be once a few more milestones are behind us and the due diligence is done. But when it happens, it’ll be one of those mornings we wake up and see the share price sharply higher because a fund has taken a position. My gut says that happens during construction, not before. Until then, it’s just the retail ebb and flow — some trying to guess 1.5, some talking themselves in or out of it. Like Stebo said, as people wake up and new investors come in, that 1.5 level becomes a psychological line for the long-term holders.

The beauty of this play is that gold at these levels turns KEFI into a cash machine once financed and built. When that first gold is poured, it’s the kind of investment you don’t have to watch every day — the money just compounds, dividends roll in, and the underlying commodity keeps climbing.

But KEFI needs to execute this as if it were building in Australia, not Africa. That’s just a fact of risk and governance. Australia’s mining sector runs on world-class safety culture, engineering oversight, and compliance — the accident rate is low because systems are mature and discipline is built in. Ethiopia doesn’t have that same industrial ecosystem, so KEFI must import that discipline. Construction quality, supervision, and safety protocols can’t slip to regional norms; they need to exceed them. The difference between a good project and a world-class one will come down to how KEFI manages that standard.

For those of us sitting on millions of shares, the job now is simple: hold, stay patient, and let time and competence do the work.

Good morning all,

Today’s RNS felt significant, yet the share price reaction has been oddly muted. To me that doesn’t mean the news lacked substance. It’s more likely a mix of hidden supply from legacy paper being sold into strength, the financing structure looking a little over-engineered, the open question of value capture if the Ethiopian subsidiary lists locally, and maybe even a silent strategic buyer quietly leaning on the book.

I don’t expect the share price to do much before signing. The serious positions are already in place, and what we’re seeing now is retail trading the tail-end moves. I also don’t see sign-off as a massive re-rate. The real shift towards anything like N-P-V comes when the mine is actually producing and gold is being poured. Between now and then, probably a couple of years, we’re looking at muted climbs rather than fireworks.

Those hoping to flip a quick 3p, 5p or 6p after sign-off and then top-slice may well be disappointed. For me, this is a slow-cooking, long-term investment, and I’m happy holding it that way.

Good morning all,

Quick question: yesterday’s close showed negative, then later 1.03p, and today it’s lower than that but still showing +6%. I’m not suggesting anything odd, just trying to understand how that works.

Thanks.

Hey Stebo, can I ask how you’ve arrived at the 20p per share figure? Please don’t take this as criticism — I’ve run my own numbers and I’m bullish too, but 20p looks to be at the higher end of what I can see on fundamentals.

I know you’ve said that’s for TK alone, which makes me curious — I can’t quite see how that comes out of a straight DCF/NPV calculation. Is your 20p more of a sentiment-driven view based on the “playbook” you mentioned, where institutions step in once they’re free to pile in?

If so, would it be fair to say that 20p is less a pessimistic floor and more of a bullish mid-case? Either way, I enjoy reading your posts — they always get me thinking.

Who else is in major profit?

Has any money 💰 come in? Errrmm, YES!

Massive amount of buys vs sells

Confusingly small sp increase. 🤔

It didn't say on 25th Sep, it says in September 2025. I think you misread out of excitement.

AIM Money flowing out of EEE and wants to land somewhere to grow.

Hey Syebo,

Missed you on the bb.

Wise words!

Why afraid of money moving into AGM.

It's what will happen to US on sign off

Bodes very well.

Great post Fukutu— couldn’t agree more that the stars are aligning here. I’d just add that some posters still seem to value KEFI as if it’s the same cash-strapped explorer of the past, when the reality is very different. Once finance is signed and the project is de-risked, it becomes a whole new investment story.

At today’s $3,600 gold, project NPV is around $600m (£480m) versus a current market cap of ~£60m. That’s why I see “1p after signing” as too conservative — more realistically it looks like 3–5p just on de-risking, with construction and first gold pour moving us into an entirely new ballpark. At that stage, KEFI stops being speculative and starts being a long-life cash-generating mine, with genuine long-term wealth potential for those holding now.

Great post Fukutu— couldn’t agree more that the stars are aligning here. I’d just add that some posters still seem to value KEFI as if it’s the same cash-strapped explorer of the past, when the reality is very different. Once finance is signed and the project is de-risked, it becomes a whole new investment story.

At today’s $3,600 gold, project NPV is around $600m (£480m) versus a current market cap of ~£60m. That’s why I see “1p after signing” as too conservative — more realistically it looks like 3–5p just on de-risking, with construction and first gold pour moving us into an entirely new ballpark. At that stage, KEFI stops being speculative and starts being a long-life cash-generating mine, with genuine long-term wealth potential for those holding now.

KEFI Changed My Life

I bought when the trolls cried doom and despair,

Held through the noise, for value was there.

From pennies to pounds, the growth was in stealth,

KEFI delivered me generational wealth.