Member Info for MF2017

@Crazytowner

good exchange as always.

Technically you’re absolutely right, and I suspect neither of us would be selling cheaply anyway.

The one thing I’m not sure about (and need to look into) is how much of KEFI is actually owned by PIs vs institutions, and therefore how much influence PIs really have on a takeover vote.

We often talk as if PIs are the dominant group, but I’m not convinced we’re either the largest holders or a coherent voting bloc. (This is perhaps the biggest point that shapes my thinking ).

For example, I doubt either of us would sell in the low pences. The high teens, especially close to production, might tempt many — but personally I’m trying to stay patient given how close we are to construction and what the fundamentals could look like once the project is running.

Anyway — always enjoy the exchanges. Thanks.

@ElectricLion a hostile bid is technically possible.

But there’s a difference between what’s technically possible and what’s probable in reality.

A hostile bid would normally require a bidder quietly building a meaningful stake or institutions lining up behind it. I’ve seen no evidence of that happening here.

We also often talk as if PIs control the register, when in reality we’re fragmented and unlikely to determine the outcome alone.

Given that, and the fact that mining takeovers typically come at 30–100% premiums, I see very little evidence that a takeover is likely during the next couple of years of construction — and once production is established, it arguably becomes even less likely, not more.

Guys. It will be easier for you to agree with me. I'm right! 😎🤷🤣🤣🤣🚀💰💰

@sharezy boards only have to consider serious offers. Ones they deem serious.

But they don’t have to put every approach to shareholders. If an offer materially undervalues the company, the board can simply reject it.

Which raises the real question: what counts as serious?

From what I’ve observed, takeovers in mining typically come at 30–100% premiums to the prevailing share price, precisely because the market often prices risk rather than asset value.

So my point still stands: I struggle to see how a 2.5p, 3p — even 5p — takeover approach for a company moving toward construction would pass the board as a reasonable proposal, let alone make it to shareholders.

Hell’s bells, no.

@longfell — welcome.

But a 2.5p takeover?

We’ve already traded above that historically on sentiment alone, long before financing and construction.

Why would anyone sell the whole company below prices the market has already paid just on hope?

Feels like a number pulled from the sofa cushions rather than the asset value.

@pjh1

Fair examples, but I’m not sure they’re comparable.

but not really the same stage.

Mariana was taken out pre-construction, Shanta was taken out while producing.

KEFI is moving into construction with first gold ahead, which is actually a less common takeover window.

Both Mariana and Shanta were taken out when major holders supported the deal.

That’s the real question here.

It’s not whether PIs would take a quick profit — it’s whether institutions, the board and strategic partners would sell a near-producing asset cheaply.

Personally I struggle to see that happening before first gold.

@Crazytowner

I actually put that post out partly to tease a response from you, so thanks for replying. We always seem to enjoy sparring over this one.

I agree a takeover is always possible. I just don’t see it as likely.

On price:

My rough thinking is high-teens pre-production to even start a serious conversation.

Very simple logic:

Tulu Kapi NPV roughly $1bn+ depending on gold assumptions

Development projects often transact around ~0.4–0.6 NAV

That roughly puts you in the high-teens pence range.

Once first gold is achieved, the risk profile changes and I’d personally be thinking low-20s pence or higher before it gets serious.

And that’s without factoring Saudi assets or exploration upside.

On PI behaviour:

Yes, many PIs might happily take a quick 5–10 bagger.

But the key question is whether PIs hold enough of the register to swing a vote.

I’m not convinced they do. Institutions, the board, and strategic stakeholders will matter far more.

So while I see where your 7–10p thinking comes from, I struggle to see stronger hands selling a near-producing mine at that level.

Anyway — just my view. Always good to spar.

My prediction: we are not getting bought out.

In fact, I’d say there’s about a 95% chance KEFI is not taken over in the next five years.

Why? Because no one is going to offer anything close to NAV for these projects right now.

So unless management suddenly decides to sell massively undervalued assets — which makes no sense — a takeover just isn’t happening.

Just my view.

And like everyone else who makes predictions here — feel free to hold me to it.

Just saw Hubster mention Newmont.

Gents — does anyone know where that rumour originated from? I’ve had a quick look around and can’t find any thread, article, or reference to it anywhere.

Did it come from a private WhatsApp/Telegram group, an investor note, or something said at a conference perhaps?

Just curious more than anything. On the face of it, it seems slightly counter to what Newmont have largely been doing since around 2015 — selling off smaller assets and focusing on tier-one operations. That said, the world (and the gold market) is obviously a very different place now compared to ten years ago.

So if anyone knows the source of the rumour it would be interesting to hear.

@Stebo

All very boringly profitable 😆

I’m going to double down and say yes — this is wonderful. But like us investors, there’s really nothing for us to do right now. Everyone else is doing the hard work. Always enjoy reading your posts. For now, let’s just sit back and enjoy the fruits of other people’s hard work.

That said, it was a very curious post from Harry. I’ve noticed he posts quite infrequently, which makes it all the more interesting. Wouldn’t complain if we woke up to an RNS tomorrow. Let’s see.

@Stebo

I think you’ve misunderstood what I said. 🤷😎

Your post actually makes three points:

Zoom out and look at the big picture.

Ignore day-to-day noise.

Sit through the volatility because the project is progressing.

That’s exactly the point I was making. The only difference is framing. You’re calling it the exciting phase — I’m calling it the boring phase where the plan is laid out and investors mostly just sit on their hands while execution plays out.

Given the number of times over the past few months we’ve heard “2p next week” or “5p by Christmas”, which haven’t quite materialised, I’m simply choosing not to frame it as imminent fireworks.

For me this is the easiest part of the journey: the uncertainty phase is largely behind us and now the project just needs to run.

Good morning all.

For long-term holders this is probably the hardest phase of the investment cycle: the waiting phase. Once financing is largely in place and a project moves toward construction, there isn’t actually much for shareholders to do other than wait.

From what the company has indicated, financing is now roughly 94% arranged. My understanding is that the remaining ~$20m component is only required later in the development cycle rather than immediately at construction start.

In mining you often see what people refer to as the Lassonde Curve — early discovery excitement, followed by a quieter period during development when the market loses interest before production approaches. That “boredom zone” is where some investors sell simply because nothing dramatic is happening.

Personally, I’m comfortable sitting through that phase. I’d obviously welcome higher prices now, but I’m equally happy to see the share price build steadily over the next couple of years as the project progresses and the shareholder base gradually shifts toward longer-term holders.

For me the strategy at this stage is simply patience and letting the investment thesis play out.

Just my perspective — not advice.

@cjm682

Just a quick clarification question.

You mention you’ve “been here for 14 years.” Do you mean invested in KEFI for that long, or posting on this board?

I only ask because your profile shows a join date of February 2026, which suggests this particular handle is relatively new.

Not an accusation at all — plenty of people read the board for years before posting, or change usernames — but a bit of context can help readers understand where different perspectives are coming from.

Either way, everyone’s entitled to their view.

TW says he can no longer recommend ECOB.

🤦. Seems a cash raise is needed.

All this talk about long-term holders selling out just to buy back in cheaper genuinely makes me laugh.

Most genuine long-term holders — especially those who’ve been in for the last two years or more — are sitting on very low averages. There isn’t some magical cheaper entry point waiting below this. For many of us, these are the cheap levels.

What you’re seeing isn’t long-term holders trading in and out. It’s more likely simple fatigue. After a while, constantly responding to the same recycled narratives just becomes pointless. So people stop engaging. That doesn’t mean they’ve sold — it often just means they’re patient and waiting.

Silence isn’t weakness. Sometimes it’s just conviction without the need to argue.

Gents,

Feels like we’re all just waiting at the moment. Plenty happening in the world, plenty of noise in the markets — fast money chasing day trades and reacting to every headline.

But for those of us holding long term, it’s actually quite a luxury to just sit back and wait for the proper golden RNSs to land. That’s what really matters.

Everything else is just movement.

Patience isn’t flashy, but it pays.

Guys, kids are going to school in most Gulf countries. It's not as bad as some make out. Seems to have been and fizzled.

Saw this quote today and it hit home:

“You’re not doing it wrong.

You’re just at the part where most people quit.

Keep going.”

Made me think about my KEFI investment.

Hold for gold.

People are completely misunderstanding the takeover point – whether wilfully or not.

A bid is not imminent. Not next month, not in the next couple of months. And by the time anyone serious even looks at it, the re-rate will be far sharper than 2–3p. That’s what’s being missed. Construction “months away”? No. Mobilisation has already started. Financing sign-off fundamentally changes the investment case. This is not the same company it was six months ago.

If a takeover was being lined up at 2p, you’d see TR1s. You don’t. Any credible offer would have to go to shareholders unless hostile, and I don’t see anyone building at these levels. And anything below 10p is a hard no in my view. After 20+ years getting this financed, the board isn’t cashing out for silly pennies.

Some are happy clipping a quick few hundred or a couple of thousand — fine. Different budgets. But don’t confuse short-term thinking with underlying value. This is about asset value and what financing unlocks.

Be patient. Grow some balls.

10p+ takeover? Hard no.

I know it sounds tempting. For some, 10p+ looks like life-changing money. But step back.

What are you actually selling?

We still don’t have the full Saudi updates.

Licences still to be finalised.

Underground mining upside not realised.

Production not even started.

Gold macro on a 3–5 year view is firmly supportive.

You’re being asked to sell before the value inflection.

And then what? Where are you reinvesting that cash? Into another high-risk explorer hoping for the same upside?

If TK delivers and dividends flow as outlined, some holders could see the equivalent of 10p in dividend income over a few years — without giving up the asset.

10p is a takeout of convenience.

20p+ is at least a starting conversation.

Below that? Hard no. Hard, hard no.

There seems to be an attempt to amplify fears of renewed conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

Looking at the most recent reporting, any flare-up — if it were to occur — would likely be limited and short-lived. The structural realities on the ground suggest escalation would be difficult to sustain, and Eritrea is clearly the weaker of the two parties.

Here’s the article I’m referring to:

https://www.dw.com/en/ethiopia-faces-renewed-strain-with-tigray-and-eritrea/a-76056011

For KEFI Gold & Copper plc holders, this feels more like sentiment noise than a fundamental shift. If markets overreact, any dip would likely represent a short-term buying opportunity rather than a change in the underlying investment case.

Separate headlines from fundamentals. 🤷💰💰💰

Ok, whoever it is, please stop your wishing so hard now... 😆. Don't be too greedy.