Member Info for Metalhead25

Fulmar, you do we’re not Ella’s friends, don’t you? Difficult to see what you’re achieving by very mildly clogging up a board used by a load of people you don’t know and have no issue with. Also, a word to the wise, you’re coming across as childish…

I don’t really understand the perception that we’re short of news. The Wowo/RMI news was pretty recent. And although I agree we could get news on Burwell or the peakers at any time I don’t think it’s overdue or anything. Burwell was only freed up for progress a week ago and we’re only just entering the target period for closing on the peakers

Intrigued by BT’s comments on Ditau. What sort of thing would be “interesting” but require care not to say too much about it yet? Something affected by ongoing commercial confidentiality?

I think it’s favourable if anything. The current energy market crisis is in my view emphasising the importance of having flexible supply options to cover fluctuations in output from wind and solar, which is exactly what gas peaker projects and battery projects are trying to do. It’s true that gas prices are higher at the moment, but my take is that that will just mean the grid has to be willing to pay more for gas peaker supply. I don’t think they really have an option to do without it, so they’ll just have to pay for it. That’s my view anyway

Thanks Astro. There certainly does seem to be a strong push downwards at the moment and I’m not planning to buy straightaway. I can also see that the 200p share price earlier in the year probably had quite a bit of froth in it. However, the fact that the company got a placing away at nearly twice this price only a few months ago (and, as far as I can see, nothing has gone significantly wrong in the meantime) makes this look an interesting opportunity to me. Question of timing, as so often!

Joe, I meant also to say thanks for your nice helpful response. When considering whether to invest in a company it is encouraging to be able to go on the message board and get polite and constructive answers from people :-)

Hi Joe, Canetoad

Joe - are you sure about your statement that the equity raise will only happen if the share price recovers? What’s plan B if the share price doesn’t recover??

Canetoad - I can’t see that the raise described would halve the share price. It would nearly double the shares in issue but the cash paid would also nearly double the company’s valuation, so should be SP neutral unless done at a big discount?

I would also add that, having recently bought back in, I’m relaxed about the SP drift over the past 24 hours. We all know what this share is like - it does drift up and down on low volume. It’ll drift up again. And if we get good news it’ll spring up

To be fair, though, this is almost entirely a failure of communication. I think the company initially presented too much confidence in the speed at which progress would be made at Burwell - that’s the failure of communication. But in terms of the substance, it has not been possible to progress Burwell except during about the last week. So if you strip out the communication failure, there hasn’t really been any delay at all.

I do understand frustration but I think it’s important to be clear about the real nature of the problem. It’s not a failure of execution but rather a case of a bit of over-promising

Hi all

I’m not currently a shareholder but am interested in buying in when the share price stabilises. I have been trying to work out how the company plans to fund the development of Longonjo? The 31 August RNS is full of possibilities for financing Saltend but does anyone know what the plan is for the Angolan end of the operation?

Also, for anyone who didn’t see Tharisa’s interesting tweet yesterday:

“ Big kicker on the JSE on Friday for THA / THS showing a nice arb on the closing SP

THA Share price in ZAR2300
THS Share price in GBP101
Exchange rate GBPZAR20.32
THA in GBP113.19
Arbitrage in GBPcents12.19
Arbitrage percentage10.77%”

UK investors buying now getting a 10% discount!

Hmm, hadn’t thought of that. I suppose it’s plausible given the absence of another explanation, but it seems an odd thing for an institutional investor to do following what I would have assumed was a decent amount of due diligence. Thanks for the reply anyway

If I could interrupt this fascinating squabbling for a minute, does anyone understand why the identity of the institutional investor announced a couple of months ago remains a secret? (Or am I wrong about that?)

Although I suppose one way of looking at it is that if there is preparatory work going on we must be around about or close to financial close

I’ll be pretty surprised if we’ve been able to (and chosen to) start construction before financial close, but you never know!

Yes, in my view there is now a big opportunity in THS (I have bought more today). Rhodium is ticking back up and could recover dramatically as the chip shortage eases. The “coiled spring” effect described in the Seeking Alpha piece should apply to Tharisa too, with the major added bonus here that we are protected against PGM downside by the chrome business and the fact that major operational optimisation (Vulcan) is about to come online

Serabi has been a tough hold over the past 6 to 9 months, but it is going to get better. The company has performed well in that time, it’s just that the market has been unfavourable. All that is needed is patience. If we can get production up to 45koZ pa and progress Coringa it’ll be impossible to ignore the extraordinary value here

And yet still so cheap relative to what may be coming. Hole A2-2 has given us a whole new type of target, and moreover one which is more widespread in the KSZ. And we’re about the drill the 8200S target B which could validate the Karoo model as well. Just look at GGP and EUA - if things go we could be 25, 50, 100 times this Mcap in 12-18 months’ time

Any theories on why we’re up 15% this morning? Was Ben’s Twitter talk last night particularly positive?

I’d be positively in favour of giving a drilling company cash plus shares in order to pick up the pace and/or get started in the KCB in parallel, particularly if the shares were subject to a lock-up. I wouldn’t view that as a placing in the sense that strikes fear into the hearts of small cap investors