Member Info for Metalhead25

More stunning results. 48m at 6.3% Copper. Genuinely if an explorer announced that they’re mcap would rocket past ours immediately. And we’re a soon to be profitable miner. The value on offer here is INSANE

Hello, is that $40m+ operating profit per annum, capex paid back in less than one year?

Absolutely amazing!

The previous owners, RMI, had put in an application to renew prior to the expiry of the old licence, but due to a variety of factors (primarily Covid) a key part of the renewal process has been repeatedly delayed. This is not RMI’s fault of Corcel’s - it is just that the government keeps postponing the warden’s hearing. I’m personally confident that once we manage to get through the process we’ll get the renewal no problem

They’re not all sells mate. Pretty much all day the sell price was 70 and the buy price was 71-72. However, because officially the spread was 70-75 everything below 72.5 (ie absolutely everything) gets marked as a sell. But in reality many were buys

I don’t think there’s anything wrong at all. This is a geological hole. It is supposed to hit this or that gabbro and get to target depth. If there was a problem with that, we’d have had an RNS. If no problem, we wouldn’t. I don’t think you can infer a lack of positive news either. I can’t see that hitting mineralisation similar to hole 2 would be considered reportable, for example (as it’s more of the same). In my opinion the RNSs we have had re warrants etc suggest things are going well and expected to go very well

I agree, Mike.

“the early securing of long term shipping and offtake arrangements”

Hopefully an indicator of a bit of urgency and desire to push on. Great news

I would largely agree with that sharehead, including that in the long term the fact that we know there is copper at copperhead derisks the company. I was very bullish on Rock until I learned that the current campaign at Copperhead was going to be so limited. What worries me about such a limited campaign is that reproving what we basically already know, and then doing a placing to drill some more, may not exactly set the market on fire

The issue here is not the copper (await assays, but hopefully decent/economic) but the capital and shareholder dynamics. They’re only drilling 5-6 holes at copperhead which is nowhere enough to approach any sort of monetisation of the project, hence even success will be followed by a placing. I know people hate that word but it’s inevitable. The only way it can be otherwise is if there is a sale or JV of the asset, but that clearly won’t happen off the back of 6 holes. As to shareholders, it’s still a bit rampy here (although not as bad as it was), which creates unrealistic expectations and therefore increased risk of major downswings. Just my views, obviously

I have a feeling this share is getting ready for a big move up:

- Bushranger looking like a 50+% chance of being a serious multibagger (10x?) on its own
- African assets about to deliver regular cash flow, with more upside potential to come
- Excellent exploration results at Eureka suggesting we may have another outstanding copper deposit there
- Copper price flying and likely to rise higher given Chinese mining disruption
- More assays coming in the coming weeks; each one can further de-risk Bushranger

In my opinion time is running out to board the train at “2021 prices”

PGM prices are rising again as well. Everything looking good

Don’t know how much we will get but for me the key thing is proving that we can make this work, i.e. buy a project for x, move it on a bit, and sell it for more than x plus a carry. If it works, we can repeat it. How much more than x the cash is seems to me to matter less than the fact of pulling it off. But let’s see - in interviews over the summer Scott seemed optimistic of getting a decent amount up front

If we can do this deal on the peakers I’ll be very happy. It’s the one bit of news we need more than any other:

- further justifies closing valuation gap to MAST
- brings cash in, avoiding any need for placing
- we keep a carry interest and therefore share in future profitability of the peakers
- puts us in a stronger position to do more similar projects in future
- validates the Corcel business model (cash from FGS funds mining projects)
- proves Scott can close deals (some have doubted)
- should induce a re-rate rather than a spike because it’s cash generative, not jam tomorrow

All in all, this will be amazing for Corcel and I just hope it closes ASAP!

I agree, silence is positive. If anything had gone wrong with the drill it would have had to be reported. So silence means it’s going fine. I personally think they’re just taking a bit of a break from media after a big blitz in September, and in anticipation of another one when they complete hole 2 at target B. They can’t be hammering all comms channels at all times, after all

Thanks. In that case, I certainly haven’t heard anything further - indeed I knew less than you! I’m sure the permitting will get moving at some point soon - hardly in the interests of the PNG government to have projects like these stalling for lack of permits

Are you talking about Wowo Gap there? The last I heard, the Wardens meeting had been rescheduled for September and was expected to take place

My view on buyout of BMA:

- I’m sure it is being considered, hence “explore corporate synergies” or whatever the phrase is on Corcel’s timeline
- However, we can realistically only afford it (both up front cost and running costs) if done in conjunction with a wider financing transaction aimed at bringing Wowo and Mambare towards production
- The big hope for financing is Sinom. Corcel is clearly optimistic about this and in broad terms I am too. What is not known is how much Sinom would be willing to stump up and on what terms. Enough to buy out BMA? Probably not a huge cost so quite likely. Enough to start a DSO operation? That will cost more and I just don’t know whether Sinom would fund it alone or in what manner (debt or equity or mix). I also wonder whether a spin-off of FGS followed by a Sinom takeover of Corcel could be a possibility. In any case, I’m sure all these options would be very good for us shareholders
- I would imagine we need both PNG sites fully permitted before the above will progress

Congratulations on another excellent performance!

I’ve added £6.5k. Don’t know whether news is imminent or not but drops on low volume make sense as a time to add for me

Yes, the thing is, the phrase “ This development is likely to require US$25 – 30 million of capex and at that stage, Corcel would either be looking to bring in larger players for a JV or consider a complete disposal” really covers all possibilities from having a well developed and realistic plan with confirmed funder interest to having a vague idea on which no progress has been made! Would love the company to publish a proper plan

Whether it’s good news that the company now has Wowo Gap depends *entirely* on whether there is a realistic plan to finance the production and sale of Nickel on some sort of attractive timescale. If the project can be moved to production, happy days. If it’s just going to languish on the company’s books while Scott spends all his time waving drafts of leases at the new Burwell landowners, the acquisition is a bad thing (the RMI report to shareholders revealed that just keeping Wowo Gap on care and maintenance has a fairly significant cost attached). So, the question for the company is: what’s the plan?