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Exactly. Company have very little debt to speak of, government backed, no large sunk r&d costs, its pure revenue vs variable cost with demand set to out-way supply by many many multiples. Its a dream cash cow. It's all free cash flow.

The non Covid business is worth double what NCYT's is.

Gazza isnt it a gift to be behind Novacyt on a similar journey. It should give a clue as to how this will go. 2 years worth of news happening in a matter of weeks.

This is time critical. It's not your usual aim situation where you get one RNS and say see you in 6-12 months time. All the home nations are starting antibody testing this week

66p always going to be tough to break because of the mcap. Its not a bad thing if it stays here until news.

L&G are any buyers friends at the moment. They are letting people in at a level they otherwise wouldn't have a chance.

Classic tactic... misdirection followed by panic... mms playing games.
Managed a small top up at 60 so im happy

So this claims to have a 99.8% test, but it seems the government aren't interested because they have lab test ability, they want the home testing kits.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-scientists-edinburgh-create-fast-and-accurate-antibody-test-results-35-minutes-nhs-miss-european-a4430811.html

I know markets are often irrational, but surely this has to be a great week ahead.

I will be very surprised if we don't see something from the company in the next 2 sessions.

FC - it doesn't take a behavioural scientist to work it out does it. Fact is, even if initial satellite samples come back with 5% infection rate, every single person would still want to take a test because curiosity would get the better of them and they would assume they are in the 5% unless proven otherwise.

Yes who remembers the Heaf tests? I don’t know if they are still done in schools now I guess they probably are..... 6 circular needles that prick the skin to test for TB antibodies. To work out if you need the vaccine.... I had one when I was at school....

Is that a big enough market for you.... let’s say they go into schools next year..

From the earlier post by you know who

"I think the issue is, home-made tests are not reliable."

YES! Exactly. That's the point they set up the UK Rapid Testing Consortium. Because the other tests were not up to the required quality. So lets put millions of dollars in with Oxford and consortium members expertise and manufacturing capabilities to fill this monumental gap in the market.

This is old news. The point of the UK RTC is to pool knowledge and resources in order to lead the market in offering a reliable test. We wont go into production until we've met this requirement. Yet the signs are there from Omega's expansion, Abingdon's recruitment that they are already preparing to not only go into production but to upscale production. Sir John Bell seems pretty excited about where we are. UK government, Scottish Government, Welsh government have all either started satellite testing or will be this week.

"3-ODX have a capacity of up to 100,000 kit per week and are looking at ways on how to increase that"

They have already increased this as per the news that was circulating at the end of the week regarding the lab expansion. I checked back to confirm 100,000 capacity was pre expansion.

A woman can go to her doctor to get tested to see if she is pregnant.... how many home/self pregnancy tests are sold every year? Roche test requires a visit to a medical professional. FDA emergency approval means nothing in my book. This is from a country who's leader suggested Dettol and keeps pushing Remdesivir!
I'm, confident whatever competitors are out there, we will be high enough on the preferred suppliers list to be able to sell as many as can be produced.

Dibs, they are certainly not one or the other. It's apples and pears.

But noting the current valuations, personally my argument is not to devalue another stock, more so to highlight how much further this can go. Logic, understanding, research all point to antibody tests being much more significant than antigen, and at the current valuations i'm certain which offers the best risk/reward.

I really do believe the amount of antibody tests to antigen tests could be as much as 100 to 1. So far we have tested less than 1% of the population in the UK. US are at under 2%. Globally the percentage will be much lower. Antigen tests will peak just like the virus, where we have all been social distancing, less spread or R down = less symptoms and therefore less tests.

If antibody home kits could go out tomorrow everyone would want one. Antibody tests market is 7.8bn people less 3.5m confirmed cases.

It would be a logistical nightmare. Fact is they wont allow events to go ahead until it is safe to do so. Plus imagine the cost. They will not risk expense and spread for leisure. If the risk is still high you wont be able to do it. What happens if thousands of people turn up to be tested before entering a public event and 5% are positive. By the time the test is done how many people have they made contact with before they figured this out in arriving at the testing place?

Likelihood is the vaccine will be the only thing that allows public events to go back to normal, unless the % of antibodies is already high. Antibody test before vaccine.

Sorry you are constantly going to have to prove that you have or haven't HAD it, not constantly prove that you HAVE or HAVEN'T CURRENTLY got it. Big difference. Again comes back to the window when you might return a positive result, and % that actually present symptoms, and then the % that actually bother to get tested.

Cfds, interesting counter argument, although it is slightly floored, because yes if you test positive you no longer need another antibody test, but its the same for antigen tests. So the % of the population that no longer require an antigen test and no longer require an antibody test is the same. Ie anyone that has had it. But i still think a far greater % of the population are likely to take an antibody test than to take an antigen test, because many people will not have symptoms and many who do wont get tested.

I think if we keep getting second, third, fourth peaks, that opens up the opportunity for more antigen testing. If social distancing etc manages it well demand will be less. So i think antigen tests is contingent on not getting the virus under control. Antibody tests isnt.

Use myself as an example...

I have had Covid symptoms. I had them for probably about 4 weeks. I have not been tested. I never felt ill enough to go out of my way to do it, i just thought i was cable of riding it out. Having been working in London at the height of the outbreak, likelihood of having it is higher than average. So chances are i will never take an antigen test. But as soon as i am able to take an antibody test i will 100% do so at the first opportunity. My Mrs had very very mild symptoms, hardly worth noting, so again not tested but will take an antibody test. There will be millions of people in the same boat, and not just those that have had symptoms. We all want to know what our status is without putting ourselves at risk, so we know how to manage future risk and whether it is safe for us to go out. It's what governments want, and what individuals want and need.

Totally...

Let's say this virus is around for another 2 years before we get on top of it which is looking likely.

So 104 weeks. For an individual to take an antigen test in that time, they would likely be symptomatic and how many people have had symptoms and not bothered to get tested?

Out of 104 weeks the average illness is say 2 weeks. So your market for active testing is whatever % of the population catch corona virus, show symptoms, and then bother to get tested. So out of 104 weeks, the testing window for an individual could be on average 2 weeks.So you have a test that is only relevant for a short period in the wider time frame.

The market for antibody tests is anyone that hasnt been tested positive for covid 19 for 104 weeks. How many will show a negativity test and then take multiple tests as this thing keeps circulating? The desire to get an antibody test will be greater if freedom of movement depends on it, and the ability to have one sent to your home will make it easier and more accessible, and not put you at risk by entering a zone where potentially positive people could be.

Its like choosing whether to make merchandise for a world cup, or making merchandise for Real Madrid. The world cup merchandise has its time, wheres the general merchandise is relevant in the longer term.

So far there are 3.5m confirmed cases globally out of 7.8m people, which is less than 1%. So the global market for antibody testing is greater than 99% of the population.

Don't get me wrong i think the antigen testing companies certainly have a journey. But for the reasons stated above, i strongly believe the antibody testing market is far superior in terms of opportunity, scale, access and longevity.

The virus lives in our nasal cavities, throat. lungs. It's in our saliva, mucus. Once we have beaten the virus it is no longer active or detectible.

Antibodies live in our blood. They remain in our blood post infection

Boot - The reason for that is simple... the virus may only be active for max 2-4 weeks so you will need to take the antigen test during this short window and likely you will only take one if you have symptoms. For the 60%+ of people who will test negative, the antigen test doesn't tell them anything. They may have already had it or they may not.
The window for taking an antibody tests is from now into perpetuity or until you have taken a vaccine.

There is no competition here, the number of antibody tests will far outway the number of antigen tests

Abingdon health are recruiting for immediate start roles for immediately mobilising and scaling up production "due to significant demand". They are fellow consortium member. We already know we have increased capacity with a new facility built in 1 week. Its so obvious what is about to happen here IMO.

https://www.abingdonhealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Software-Quality-Assurance-Engineer-Lead-Apr-2020v.pdf