Member Info for Merchantbanker

Always use the material shareholders list from the company website.

http://www.omegadiagnostics.com/Investor-Relations/Share-Holder-Information

Rules are holdings over 3% must be notified. You must notify after crossing each whole one % in either direction. i.e. 7.5% down to 6.1% within 2 trading days.
A good summary of rules... understand DTR (Disclosure and Transparency) rules and AIM rules.

https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/w-009-1710?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true&bhcp=1

It's crazy how little people seem to know about what they are buying and selling across all the popular stocks. I am seeing so much misinformation out there.
Panic sells just because the stock drops a couple of pence or because it's been NT for a few minutes.
On a day the government have announced their daily target has doubled, yet their current strategy cant even meet the current target. It's becoming clearer and clearer how much testing is going to be needed and with R going down less symptomatic people wanting to get tested.
I'm seeing comments about Mologic tests not meeting % rates. Do people even know what sensitivity and specificity means and the difference? Do they understand what time after exposure does and whether data is comparable? And then mixing up the lab tests with the POC tests.
One of the things giving me confidence is NCYT is slightly up today. This is one of the few covids that have confirmed orders and sales figures. I think we are the next best thing in terms of our journey to prove up our position. We will get to that stage soon, although we already are on our way with Mologic 46k per day.

All the large trades going through.... it's pointless trying to work out what are buys and sells, it will drive you crazy. The thing you have to remember is that mms would not absorb millions of shares at above 60, drop the price and then sell them to you at 50 something for a loss.

Volume is down today and there's a lot of red across the board. We have absorbed a lot of L&G stock this week

The capacity to test 100,000 a day is there. But it is not being used. The only way they will get it up to 200,000k a day is to do something different.

Peterfal - yes they are different. But they make money the same way. Manufacture. Cost + margin. It doesnt matter what the test doesn't its the demand and volume that can be produced

Thanks Piper... the more i look the more validation i get that this can 3 bag from here in the blink of an eye and why it is a much safer bet at the comparative MCAPs.

I think there are 3 stand out Covid plays, ODX, NCYT, AVCT.

NCYT have got the orders. So far we have scaled up the capacity. We have an agreement for 46k Mologic lab tests, which may be undervalue as people are assuming it's still awaiting further approval. However the CE mark is enough to market this across Europe. Clearly the game changer for us here is substantial orders of Rapid POC tests. There are clear indications of this moving forward. When it does we will close the gap to NCYT.

AVCT i am not an expert here still researching, but as far as i can see the main value has come from the collaboration agreement to develop and manufacture rapid tests. I don't see any difference in what we've got with UK RTC other than this is with a commercial partner and ours is with a consortium at the request of the government. Surely a government funded collaboration is more valuable and we do not incur significant r&d costs. It seems ODX stock is priced at high risk of failure, and AVCT is priced at 99% success. Our POC test consortium agreement added only 16p to our share price. The mologic agreement added 35p.

This highlights the value from commercial orders. This highlights that much of the value is still to be unlocked here. I would be concerned with AVCT that more of the commercial value is priced in with the development agreement. We have already up-scaled capacity, and this capacity will be used. So i think it's just a case of when not if. My take is the design freeze has to come after they have done the testing described in the government plan to assess ease of use. I believe this is happening now. We are maybe 2 months behind NCYT in terms of orders but think we are probably level, if not ahead of AVCT in terms

Please note i have no intention on playing down the other stocks, this is purely to highlight why i think exceptional value is to be had here and using our peers to highlight why.

Our gross margin last year was 67%. Check the accounts.

I think you are wrong regarding valuation of these stocks. Stocks that will be producing 100s millions of revenue over the next 2 years, its all free cash flow. This will quickly accumulate shareholder equity. Yes the revenues may not be sustainable at that level for covid testing. But that free cash flow brings opportunity, whether that is further expansion of the business or share buy backs to reverse dilution. Reality is probably both will happen.
There are several that are overvalued just from mentioning covid, but 2 or 3 that deliver the revenue forecast they might expect, will go on to fulfil that valuation potential.

Just had a quick look at Avct - The main thing it shows is how quickly the covid business changes their fortunes with revenues going from £5 to $310m minimum potential. The same will happen for us, but we are coming from a much more stable financial base.

JSP please don't take my word for it its all available to search online.

JPS yes you are wrong... mologic are a private company.

The CE mark confirms that it does meet UK specifications and can be sold in Europe.

Pilgrim you are talking about the wrong test

The two main bits of news expecting on Lab tests are further validations and commercial agreement.

"Ongoing validations are being performed by Public Health England, NHS Scotland and in the Republic of Ireland."

"Omega and Mologic will now finalise a longer-term supply agreement to commercialise this test"

Please note sensitivity is 97% after only 10 days. I think standard is 14 days. 10 could be too soon. Seroconversion can take 2 weeks. Roche sensitivity stated 14 days.

Because its out of trading hours, could me there is news on this in the morning. It might not.

It's interesting they have posted that after trading hours....

with you dibs.... seeing as most aim stocks lose money. no point gaining 100% on one stock and losing it on the others.
Current market is not normal times.
Too many easy gains being made on some stocks, some will get left holding the baby on certain stocks imo.

Look i mean people are clearly making money by doing that at the moment, but its not sustainable and there is risk of getting caught out. For stocks to continue trading more the 2x placing price is very rare.

This is why i didnt buy GDR despite the fact i like it as a covid play.

Imagine how many people are in both or either stock and haven't looked at the accounts.

I'm not prepared to just stick my money on hype. Risk reward here is most attractive IMO.

GDR made £3m revenues, lost £6.5m in the last 18 months reported have £9m of convertible bonds debt and a £5.5m equity deficit.
ODX circa £15m sales we have about £2m debt, balance sheet value circa £18m

Huge difference in the companies ex covid. Covid will obvious change this completely for both companies. Please consider above if investing in either stock. The argument for these other COVID stocks that the mcap is tiny compared to others should not mean all mcaps for covid stocks should be the same. Not only is this an excellent covid play, but it is a solid small diagnostics company, with a sound financial base.