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£99 is about 10 times more than I expect the POC tests to be. Also what will drive demand for these is when the government endorsement tells us what it means to test negative or positive. What will make them accessible is amazon/boots distribution network. What will increase effectiveness is efficient collection of data.

What the government backed RTC can offer is far superior to any other offering, providing tests are of the required accuracy, which all things point to the fact that they will be.

These could be one of the most important products mankind has ever produced and one of the most in demand products ever.

Mention on todays briefing of taking up to 10 days to receive results.

Shows firstly how stretched the system ins with throughput of tests, and secondly how much more valuable a rapid POC test for either antigen or antibody would be

yes correct i mixed up Abingdon and BBI. One in each UK country.

Piper, slight correction i think.... the 4 UK RTC all have manufacturing capacity, Abingdon in Wales, Omega in Scotland, BBI in England and CIGA in Ireland, but it is clearly only going to scratch the surface.

2 of which have expanded capacity and we have seen evidence of immediate recruitment, all points to a mass roll out. I am positive that expansion of facilities would have been paid for with government grants. These could all treble their capacity and they still wont be able to make enough.

Investment in the diagnostics industry is now a key government strategy and these companies are likely to be part of the backbone along with larger pharma and biotech.

There is a good chance one of these 4 companies will be snapped up by a larger company. Omega could be a target for a hostile takeover being listed, the other companies are different propositions with private ownership and private equity ownership. BBI i know are private equity. They wont sell out on the cheap. I would not be surprised at all if all the L&G stock is being absorbed by a strategic buyer. I havn't been monitoring level 2 but heard one market maker had appeared and then dropped of the book, which does happen if a client broker for a large buyer is or has a preferred market maker that might not have otherwise been on the book. Surely every company out there would want a piece of this why wouldn't you.

One thing you could say, is that other companies are doing a better job at selling their stock at the moment. I think we have been very modest about the opportunities we have. Other companies have been more direct about details, highly speculative revenue projections. With ODX i see them getting on with business. The expansion of capacity for example. Other companies are shouting from the rooftops about things like this. We havn't mentioned it. Perhaps there is some form of a non disclosure agreement in place. We must remember our RTC play has government interest. And the other thing is with that Government interest we don't need to create a market for it, it will do that itself with government approval.

In my experience companies that make less noise before they achieve something are usually more likely to achieve that something.

They have clearly signed up to an interactive webinar service for investor presentations, and have the results due soon. So i dont believe our stock has been oversold buy the company based on ambitious targets or concepts. I am comfortable with where we are and that whats to come will add significant value.

Investment interest aside, this virus is going to be a risk for a long time to come and there is a long way to go with the testing strategy to achieve this.

My problem with antigen testing is that you have to test at a specific time, max 4/5 days after infection being ideal. The chances of catching cases on mass scale during such a short period of time is restricted. Most people experience minor or no symptoms so not being motivated to go and get tested.

With Antibody testing, its a question of what happens with results. Not so much from a data capture and analysis point of view, but what does a positive or negative test mean for an individual, a family and for society. If you rolled out anitbody testing on mass, does a positive test then allow that individual to go about their business. Imagine the outrage amongst society if there was a lack of availability of tests and people are being treated differently. They have to have a clear plan and a clear message about how this is achieved. Part of that plan would be stock pilling. No point announcing it and then having a 1 month lead time. I really think this has to be timed correctly. Having the right test is only a part of it. They need to be in a position where everyone can be treated fairly. Where they can give clear directions on what the results mean. There are conflicting ideas about how many people have had the virus. If its less than 20% , for me we have a long way to go to beat this and another peak is inevitable. If its as high as 65% which others may suggest, then those still at risk can be more easily managed.

So i think we have to think about more than the quality and accuracy of the test. It's how do they strategise the use of these devices. If 20% of people are immune and they want to go about their business how do you manage coming out of lock down, and how to you deal with the 80% still uninfected.

This is why i believe it is so sensitive and being kept under wraps until the timing, stock and stage of the virus is right to move forward.

Can certainly see it coming together as a game changer. Like i said in a post earlier today, there is more to it than just the test itself. They have to think about how to collect and use the data too. I personally can't see this track and trace app on the IOW being much cop unless this same functionality is added in future additions. Relying on self input of symptoms is not good enough. Anyone that feels slightly ill will think they have it. It need proof. It seems like our consortium partner can complete the rolls royce solution. Imagine everyone taking an antigen test and an antibody test if negative and logging it on an app. Then we can start to understand the challenge that we must contend with to beat this thing.

I have just seen the presentation. Wholeheartedly agree this sounds like a well positioned company, with a bright future ahead. But isn't there so much future speculative growth already priced in? This is currently valued at 60 times revenues!!! I find it a bit naughty really quoting such high speculative numbers in an annual results presentation where you've just reported £5.5m revenues for 17 months.
80% of the share price growth has come since the Covid announcement without it being proven that this offering can penetrate the market or there is demand for it over other methods and quoting the retail price of other tests vs the cost is misleading. A POC home test would be very desirable and would do extremely well, but feels like the valuation added for the concept still in r&d is far beyond others at a similar stage and matching those that have firm orders already being delivered. Thats not to say that wont come in the next 2 months and i would expect some value added for speculation, but maybe not £180m. There is so much value in Covid tests because of the sheer volume of demand, that is unlikely to be matched in existing lower demand areas, so its not surprising if the company can deliver what they aim for it will be highly valuable being a test direct to the user without lab throughput.

If everything in this presentation comes to fruition then its a long successful journey ahead here, but there's a long way to go and a lot to be achieved to satisfy a third of this valuation IMO. Before Covid all the other elements were known when the share price was at 20p range, so as groundbreaking some of these may be it seems covid has driven the value and there's a long way to go.

I am an interested bystander, i wont be posting here after this, and I've deliberately posted after market close, just an honest opinion in valuating a stock of interest. For anyone invested i hope it does fulfil the potential and you do well, but feels like it's at a premium for such an early stage, so not something i can buy at the moment, unless I have missed something and will keep my eye on it in case that becomes clear. Well done for those in pre covid. GL all.

9th April was the last time we had official news on RTC. With things moving so quickly that's a long time to go without some kind of indication. So probably suggests they dont plan on updating every single step of the way, and the government are probably controlling this by making sure everything is in place before the cat is out the bag.

Please don't be too disappointed if nothing comes out at the weekend. Speculating on hope wont do us any favours if nothing happens. We have a couple more weeks window yet be fore we get to the point where we should be concerned about newsflow IMO.

Did we not scale up our manufacturing capacity???!!!

There is more to this product that the technical and biological elements. OK so you have a test that is 99.8% accurate.... but what are you going to do with it? How do you prioritise who gets it? How do you ensure that you collect the data that you need from it? What do the results of a negative or positive test mean for the individual and for the wider society?

I really think they have nailed the technical/biological side of things. But there's more in bringing a product to market than design and manufacture and I think this is what they are currently spending their efforts on, ensuring that they get best use of these kits, and this is a national effort not an Omega manufacturing effort.

When the Government first started talking about home antibody tests, the plan was clearly to have Amazon and Boots on board as an established sales and distribution channel. This will be so huge, being in a government backed consortium, producing millions of tests distributed through Amazon and Boots amongst other channels helping the nation get back to normal. Go around chasing rainbows or be part of this story over the coming weeks??

I wouldn't put too much focus on news having to come out of this weekends PM statement and an RNS Monday. It is a dangerous game to try to identify a specific time for news. I prefer to look at a range. For me the range is any time in the next 2/3 weeks. There is a long way to go still in the fight against this virus, things are moving extremely quickly but not overnight. Having such a specific goal for an RNS can lead to disappointment and poor decision making.

But the fact is when thinking about moving towards seeing family again, friends, going out to public places, people want to know if they are at risk or if they are putting others at risk. I would happily pay for and take regular tests for piece of mind if it come to it before exposing myself to others, i am sure many would do the same. I can almost see antigen tests and anitbody test being sold as a combo. Take the antigen test to see if you have it, and then the antibody test if it comes back negative.

Testing will have an enormous impact on our lives probably over the next 12-24 months and this is a multi billion dollar industry. Our fortunes do not rely on Boris letting the cat out of the bag over the weekend.

It's certainly possible that Boris might mention anitbody testing as part of the plan to get back up and running, and it will be great if he does.

Tweet was deleted, but its still on their website. Basically confirms expansion and staff moved in on 27th.

https://www.ceteris.co.uk/blogs/250-ceteris-work-with-local-companies-in-fight-against-covid-19

Can they shake it again i couldnt move money quick enough :(

NCYT up - it has substance delivering large orders.
GDR down - it had a 60% discount placing, was always going to drop back. some people got double caught buying back in thinking it was going to go back up to 300% placing price
HEMO, TERN, SNG i dont know enough about but nothing of substance yet, lots of rises just because they have covid in an rns
AVCT - had a rather negative set of accounts published, the commercial agreements that has given a hefty valuation are highly speculative and they are behind where we in are getting to production.

Perhaps there is a bit of us getting dragged down with other stocks, and people get burnt and losing confidence, but its not a lack of appetite in covid. Maybe we are still in this bracket with these stocks, but we will soon be in the same bracket at NCYT.

JCEP - Thanks for taking the time to make that your first post on ODX, yet you didn't care to mention it on AVCT where you have been constantly posting. Perhaps i can post it there for you?

Current rate circa 60/80k per day. Initial target 100k, new target 200k.

No of cases is dropping. R is dropping. Therefore there will be less symptomatic people out there. Therefore less people that want to get in there car drive to a testing centre and get tested.

Repeat testing is crucial in certain front line professions. But this wont make up 200k.

Antibody testing has to start coming into it. Target is by end of may. We've seen the lengths the government will go to to make sure they hit a number and can have their photo taken next to a white board. So they have 3 weeks. This ties in with the suggestion that home POC antibody test kits could be ready by end of May.

Boris addressing the nation on Sunday. If there is any mention of immunity passports or anything that suggest those testing positive for antibodies will be able to move more freely, this will take off. It's clear lock down restrictions will continue, likely towards this same 200k target period.

46k tests per day for Mologic Lab tests! That's nearly 17m tests a year. This company normally get orders in the 10s or low 100 thousands.
It appears to have been lost how significant this is because they have said they are awaiting PHE, NHS and other validations. This will obviously add credibility, but it has the CE mark. This is what they need to be able to take it to market.
POC tests by the millions. Yes will still await details from the RTC, which has complications as it is of Government interest, but we've already upgraded the lab capacity.
Yes these companies are at multiples, but the size and importance of these orders are significantly greater than they ever could have dreamed of 4 months ago.
No debt to speak of.
Profitable
Cash generative
Government funding for diagnostics expansion
New HIV order with initial order to be place in less than a week

This looks really good at the moment.

People are playing these stocks like a game of whack the mole just randomly hitting them when they look like popping their head up.