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i posted this on mcap.... was just as it took off so may have been missed.....

Just a couple of thoughts on share price and mcap.....

Don't think of it as being up from the 6p range to 60 based on anitbody testing.

This was trading at 15p end of Jan and tanked with the rest of the market before it announced news on anitbody testing. The 500k HIV test possibly worth another 4/5p on that. So i would say covid aside this is worth 20p, or £30m MCAP.

So potential for production of 50m + antibody tests a year has added £60m mcap. The annual revenues will be much higher than that.

In the same time period NCYT have added circa £250m to their MCAP on their covid play. We have a more valuable non covid business.

I think the antibody market is far superior to the antigen market in terms of size. You take an antigen test if you are ill and anitbody test any time.

So if you are not sure there is room for any further share price growth hopefully this gives some perspective.

New facility built to expand production, and people on site from this monday, and told more people back to work next week.

It seems like things are already happening without us being told officially.

Timing of news...... being the only listed company in the consortium, and having Government and global interest, perhaps 7am is not the most likely time.

Just a couple of thoughts on share price and mcap.....

Don't think of it as being up from the 6p range to 60 based on anitbody testing.

This was trading at 15p end of Jan and tanked with the rest of the market before it announced news on anitbody testing. The 500k HIV test possibly worth another 5p on that. So i would say covid aside this is worth 20p, or £30m MCAP.

So potential for production of 50m + antibody tests a year has added £60m mcap. The annual revenues will be much higher than that.

In the same time period NCYT have added circa £250m to their MCAP on their covid play.

I think the antibody market is far superior to the antigen market in terms of size. You take an antigen test if you are ill and anitbody test any time.

So if you are not sure there is room for any further share price growth hopefully this gives some perspective.

You have to tie it in with what they are looking to do with contact tracing etc. The government keep talking about data and science. Data collection will be a big part of the roll out. Talk of asking you to feed back results from home kits. They need to know how many people have antibodies on mass scale. Roll this out too early and you wont get the best results. It takes up to 28 days to detect antibodies, so 28 days after the peak is when you want to start antibody testing.

100% they are going to time release of news to suit the wider plan. They have been embarrassed before, they will keep a lid on it until the time is right. Coming out now and saying tests are ready people will want them now so they will come under more pressure for not rolling them out fast enough, like they do every day on the briefing with antigen testing.

Look at the other side of the coin..... normally these things take millions in research, maybe intellectual property rights, investment in infrastructure etc...
This is using existing techniques in existing facilities. Research and development done in a very short space of time with combined resources and government funding.
There will not be a large overhang of sunk costs to cover here. Its a pure manufacturing play. Marginal cost vs sales price. In huge volume. All free cash flow to the business with very little debt. Highly profitable. Comments regarding not profiteering from this is more in relation to things like selling small bottles of hand sanitiser for £30 a pop. Business like Omega need to make reasonable profit in order to secure supply.
Cost to make will be in the pence. End user price £10. Work in your knowledge of where manufacturers, distributes, point of sale take there margins.

The Government have said they expect these to be £10. Do you think it costs £10 to make?

Government will no doubt get favourable prices, but these will ship all over the world to the highest bidder. Demand will far outway supply. Just look at PPE, hand sanitiser etc. Demand = higher price.

It is huge volume of units. Even small margins on huge volume is big money.

I must say i was pleasantly surprised when i looked at the accounts. They really show that these guys know how to run a business. Great confidence that the government went to these four companies out of their choice of all the pharma and bio in the world. And Mologic came to Omega out of the 4 partners.

NCYT should give a lot of confidence. It's difficult to invest in stocks that are already significantly up. It's a huge bonus to be behind them as this should show how it can build very quickly. We are yet to have our major rerating news in RNS, but strong hints of it coming are evident in the press this week. It's a no brainer for me.

Think about this....

How many people might take an antigen test? Symptomatic people to test if they have Covid 19

How many people might take an antibody test?
Everyone. Governments will encourage or even demand it. If you want a vaccine, antibody test first. People testing negative may take several tests over the next couple of tests as new waves of corona virus circulate.

Huge global market for standard setter of accurate tests.

The company have very little debt to talk about.

All profit will be free cash flow.

This will be the making of this company for sure. This is going to change governments how they prepare and react to future risk. Omega are firmly in the shop window for future projects. I hope they can scale up production even further with more lab space and quality training.

They will also have the new hiv order with 100,000 of half a million tests on order within the next 10 days.

Looks like the jigsaw is coming together. Surely setting up a new lab is huge news. Some great exposure in new and other channels. In for a great few days. I’d expect to see money come out of other Covid stocks into here today.

They will sell as many as they can make.

Heads up the price of gold will crash to $1 tomorrow, Bzn is off to cash in his gold plated lighter for an ODX cheap buy. Sources say the gold market cant cope with this amount of gold hitting the market at once and will lead to an immediate crash......

The $1 tests to Senegal are Mologic. We are working with Mologic on Lab tests not rapid tests. We are working for UK government on Rapid tests.
No more lies pelase

Oh my god just when you think he cant look any more stupid....

60k shares out of 150m is 0.004% of the mcap. And you predict a huge drop because some employee possibly sitting on what could be a life changing 30k of profit wants to cash some in!

Wow this might be the most stupid deramp i have ever heard

Great to see this get prime coverage on C4 news. It seems like momentum is building to make some kind of announcement within days.

Could this data be further approval from one of the bodies?

This is some serious stuff going on here. Omega must be doing everything they can to maximise the scale up of production. I keep saying it, they will sell as many as they can produce of these tests.

This is happening, this has been driven by government need and government money.

"Now it is just a question of scaling up the manufacturing process"

Prof Bell and his team refined the test, entrepreneur Jonathan Allis, the founding CEO of Blue Earth Diagnostic, was tasked by Mr Han**** and Health Minister Lord Bethell – aided by PR guru Roland Rudd – with establishing its mass production through the Rapid Testing Consortium

Jonathan and the team have been working up to 20-hour days, seven days a week – literally around the clock. There is a huge determination to achieve this as quickly as is humanly possible.'

The Treasury is bankrolling the project, and the scientists expect the Government to buy up the kits before deciding how to allocate them after key workers have received them first

It sounds like next week will be a big week to map out how to restart the country. That has to include antibody testing.

not quite the finished that it was heading towards.
news is time sensitive
multiple pieces expected

There was one fund that sold around 5th March, share price 130 down to 96 ish. they could of had another 4 bags.

I would expect a sell off on NCYT to load up here.