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People keep saying orders etc.... this is a global pandemic with a shortage of quality, cost effective and fast tests. Omega tests tick all the boxes. They just need to get manufacturing up and running this month. Sales will not be a problem, it is just a matter of timing. We might need a bit more evidence on the Elisa side, but lateral flow we will sell what can be produced.

It's like a company digging for gold. You don't wait for the jewellery to go on someones wrist before it is valued, you know it has value because you know the market is there. These tests are our gold, and we have 3 approved and 2 more coming.

Sorry i meant IgM not IgA first. Many of you probably know there is a similar graphic on Omega's website.

http://www.omegadiagnostics.com/Products/COVID-19

Below link shows a really good graphic as to why the Mologic tests is excellent with it's triple antibody USP. The timing of the presence of the 3 different antibodies shows that it is almost a hybrid of an IgG antibody tst and an anitgen test.

A test that claims to pick up only the "most infectious" is talking about the symptomatic phase of the illness. The graph shows that there are detectable levels of IgA very soon after symptom onset. If you tsake into account a person will likely go for a test maybe a day or two after symptoms onset, this means this test could be as good as going for an ANtigen test if you suspect you have an infection.

This test could be much more useful than an IgG or an Antigen test. You start to understand why Colin King has reserved 80% of their production capacity for this test, baring in mind it is worth twice as much to as as the UK RTC test as it will be an Omega branded product, rather than supply of the lateral flow device to UK RTC. UK RTC will be the product with the most fanfare on announcement but it wont be the most profitable. The market is massively undervaluing the significance of the CE mark.

https://www.mdpi.com/diagnostics/diagnostics-10-00453/article_deploy/html/images/diagnostics-10-00453-g004.png

The India presentation was regarding Foot Intolerance and the roel of IgG antibodies, which you can find more information about on Omega's website. It looks like they are targeting further growth in the food business which has been centered around China at the moment. The are currently awaiting China self test approval after getting professional use approval at the start of the year.
We are also expecting development of a new distribution partner in the US to open up the US market this year.

Hants - well the first thing i'm going to do is tell everybody i had it. Whether it means anything for immunity or not, natural curiosity will drive people to want to take a test if they as much had a sniffle.

The immunity period does not just rely on presence of IgG antibodies. Look at the T Cell research too. Immunity could last long beyond when we have detectable antibodies. Also, if immunity is shorter term, I am more likely to take more antibody tests because i want to check further down the line if i still am immune. If immunity was permanant there would be no need for a second antibody test if returning a permanent test, so the argument of lack of long lasting immunity is an argument for a larger antibody market as otherwise with each positive test the potential market size reduces by one. Secondly if there is limited immunity, there is limited vaccine immunity, and antibody tests will be key in efficacy testing of vaccines.

A lot of these early studies can be disregarded because they are done or tests that are not accurate enough. So far only one case claims to have it twice i still believe, 9 months in.

ODX only need to sell probably about 50m of them over the next 2 years to achieve the level of utilization which gives us our top end valuation of around £900m. UK Gov ordered 50m crap tests that they knew nothing about, cost more and have probably since been dumped in the river.

The UK Government use of UK RTC test is all but confirmed. It is a one horse race.

Hants - I think i had Covid back in March. Please tell me how an antigen test can confirm that, unless it comes with a time machine?

How the heck do you think they find out more about antibodies without antibodies tests???

Antigen testing is the way to control the virus.
Antibody testing is the way out of the virus and they way to monitor the virus.

You cannot control it forever. Whether through vaccines or natural immunity, antibody testing is a crucial tool to get back to normality, which feels more and more like we are years away from.

The theory about repeat antigen testing is sound. But the economics and reality make it challenging. You can't test 7.8bn people every week for the next 2 years.

There is so much more to testing than finding the active virus. An antigen test will only return positive during an active infection, which is a very small window. So the chance of catching the infection is low. But it is still important to track the virus and for the individual to know if they are at risk. Whether immunity is 4 months, 4 years or just means the next bout of covid is far less serious, that is valuable and vital information that could save that individuals life, their families lives or save their job.

Sorry but this term "most infectious" is a poor one. Do you want to get on a flight where testing has prevented the most infectious from boarding, but others that are not in the "most infectious" category can board. What's the level of the "most infectious". The official generalised term of most infectious is the time period 3 days post onset of symptoms. That is an even shorter window to detect infection, and the virus can transmit before and after. Picking up the "most infectious" on that definition can probably screened just as well from the temperature checks that have already been in place.

The selling has offset value from several key milestones delivered. It's undervalued because of that. It will catch up. There are at least 2 rns due that will generate more volume than it will need to clear any seller, and it's better long time if any large position is being sold down that a chunk comes before a rise.

I'm certain when we start seeing orders come through, that it will blow the market away. I expect a significant advance on the 200k UK RTC tests per week, which may have the impact of forcing them to plan for even more capacity. An update on Mologic Antigen test would also have a big impact on planned capacity usage.

Upomega - India has the 5th largest economy in the world and they are now competing with US on the most number of tests carried out each day. Their tests are useless, some only 60% accurate. The Mologic offerings are ideally suited to India. I expect sales could come in lots of smaller contracts to independent labs, and that ODX wont make the Senegal mistake and will wait to give a more comprehensive sales update. Their Health budget is in hundreds of billions $. Our tests are cheap. I think we are awaiting news on the finger prick collection device for self test, which could really transform our Elisa tests.

"BBI will work with Avacta and Cytiva to produce the additional technical documentation that is required for CE marking of the final product."

All the products the UK Gov are trialling are already CE marked. You will not get any PHE/MHRA approval and therefore an order from Gov until the product is CE marked, which is not reliant on a regulatory body and should be the first sign of the suitability to take to market.

Also Avacta are seeking ISO 13485 accreditation to streamline CE mark.

“The diagnostics business has also been working at a rapid pace towards ISO13485 accreditation, which will streamline CE marking and other regulatory approval processes. "

So based on this the order of newsflow should be:

ISO 13485 accreditation - although with 2 ISO accredited manufacturing parties i don't know if this is less relevant, however if they want to CE mark in their own name perhaps it is
CE Mark
Sales through distribution
Government approval possibly professional use first, then self test use
Government order

The good news is as soon as it is CE marked they can start selling. If i were you i wouldn't worry about government interest because if they get CE mark they can sell to a market much wider than UK gov, although UK Gov accreditation would greatly enhance the profile..The requirements to pass the CE mark will be lower than what PHE might be seeking for approval, so actually when i think about it like this it gives me more confidence in achieving a marketable product with demand, and demand could go nuts just based on that. Once i see that CE mark, then I will start to believe in AVCT.

The reason Gov approval is important to UK RTC is the Gov already have first refusal and control of supply, so although the test is CE marked we must wait for the supply agreement.

https://www.med-technews.com/news/bbi-appointed-to-manufacture-saliva-based-covid-19-test/

"Pregnancy test-style kits – home tests for £5 being checked by PHE " - Avactas are £30 a pop so they can;'t be yours. They must be too good!! ;)

Ready for tomorrow....!!! :;)

THis mornings RNS could just be testing the communication reach!!!

https://twitter.com/WalbrookPR/status/1301539985330499587?s=20

There is clearly a lack of information regarding the progress of Mologic's tests. They are only announcing major milestones.

The below article is dated 19th March. At this point a saliva based antigen test as well as the antibody test was very much on the radar with both Antibody and Lateral flow tests expected in 3 months. They delivered on time with anitbody tests, but antigen is clearly taking longer due to the complexity.

I think a lot of people are making the assumption the Antigen test are at early stage because they came on our radar later, however they have been in development since March. The inclusion of the test in the Heathrow trial is the clearest indication of progress, that Moligic are ready to put a test forward for inclusion in a trial. Mologic are not profit driven, they want to deliver quality tests to tackle world health issues, therefore they have not submitted a test because they are hungry to monetise, they have submitted it because they have something to offer.

https://www.360dx.com/infectious-disease/immunoassays-coronavirus-testing-including-self-tests-targeted-mologic#.X1EAz8hKiUl

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/inventor-home-pregnancy-test-develops-coronavirus-test/

mowzerrocks - Yes speculation is an important part of investing, but so is risk management.

DOH i have absolutely no intention of influencing any share price. Just discussion about the trying to establish facts and challenge misfacts or at lease consider a more balanced view. Do you know what if someone posts on a share i am invested in i dont abuse them or tell them to go away. I respond politely with facts or opinion based on circumstantial evidence. Perhaps if this board could offer the same we could have a sensible discussion that may either build my confidence or allow you guys to reaffirm or requestion your beliefs. Isn't that what these BBs are for?

Chendog - Because i must be missing something and I am trying to work out what it is. I don't have a problem with it being unproven, i have a problem with this level of confidence with it being unproven. I would rather buy at £2+ if it's proven than now unproven, i've learnt my lesson a long time ago in believing only what oi think to be true.

DOH - If there's something i've said that's incorrect please provide some evidence to the contrary and i will correct my view.
Whether I am a potential investor of the stock or just an interest in the stock and i believe i've done as much research on if not more than most of the people on here, so if i have an opinion or comment that i want to discuss i believe i am entitled. All it takes is to provide evidence against something i say then my view will be corrected.

For example - the Zika virus somebody kindly pointed out. If someone can confirm this lead to a commercial tests this disproves my comment that there is no proven track record. If this is not the case then my comment is accurate, whether you like it or not.

Enlighten me Entangled.

Robbiefalcon - Thanks. As far as i can see Avacta rapidly produced Affimer binders for Zika virus in 2016. But i can't see that it ever came to anything or a test every came through development.