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I think by the end of Jan i see all the steps in place to take it to full capacity including Antigen tests. We may get to full capacity based on Antibody lateral flow. 1 month we should have achieved enough to start pricing in a significant chunk of the utilisation. I really think they should be already looking beyond 2m tests per week, and perhaps a UK RTC supply agreement that exceeds 200k per week may be a catalyst for that.
For me NCYT need to prove they can compete with the next generation tests so I'd like to see more updates on R&D to convince me they can continue to deliver the numbers, although there latest numbers showed good growth and high monthly revenue. I believe there is upside from their current performance compared to market value, but perhaps right to have some caution as better tests becoming available could cut their strong run short. I think with ODX their tests wont be beaten out of the market so i expect to be able to have confidence in sales much further down the line. I also expect a premium valuation based on the involvement in a high fanfare UK mass testing program.

Understanding ODX potential is very simple.

2m tests per week x 52 weeks x £3 average selling price = £312m revenues per year.
Add revenues from Food Tolerance and CD4 Total Revenues of circa £350m
Average margin of circa 55% = £192.5m gross profit
Admin expenses = Assume £20m. Net profit = £172.5m
Earnings multiplier x 5 = £862.5m
Earnings multiplier x 8 = £1,380m.

Flex the working for different utilisation rates if you dont think they will max out.

It is all about utilisation of that 2m capacity. With UK RTC tests, Mologic Antigen and Antibody tests, it is easy to see how they could fill that utilisation several times over. These products are cash cows. The way to make money is selling something for less than it costs to make and develop it. A company can have all the ideas in development and ambitious plans it likes, but it isn't worth a penny without approved quality products to sell. ODX has already been derisked with 2 approved products, very soon to become 5.

Regarding longevity. It is becoming more clear we have at least a few years of this to come best case scenario.

Over the next few years they will generate significant free cash flow which could be reinvested, paid as dividends or share buy backs. So this short to medium term opportunity can change the capital make up of the company.

The market cannot ignore this for ever. The activities Omega are about to enter into will translate into a very strong set of accounts.

What a beautiful tweet from Mologic. As expected Mologic’s antigen test is right up there in the shop window. What’s slightly unexpected is we are not expecting the lateral flow antigen test yet, but it appears it’s ready for trials.

We have an incredible portfolio of projects. I’m more confident we will achieve full capacity utilisation pushing us into the £350m plus revenue scenario and £900m plus mcap.

Remember the way to make money in this world is selling something for more than it costs you. You can make all the noise about things you want to achieve but at the end of the day delivering quality approved products will lead to ultimate success. These tests will be a real cash cow. Demand should be assumed to be off the chart.

DD - Yes i believe the valuation of AVCT is overweight. I like the business and I agree it has great long term potential, but it's not a buy for me at $400m mcap for sure. If you can show me a sensible modelling that shows Avct is undervalued at £400m, i'll sell half my ODX and buy it up. But i suspect that is impossible. It was purely driven up on PI speculative buying, and they have been working hard to prop it up and justify it since without any tangible progress. Talking about billion dollar markets like they own them. Saying the antigen tests are going to sell for up to $30 and make them for $1.

I'll give you some further points....

I keep hearing when this gets debated, yeah but it's not just about Covid. I think investors are confused. They have this idea what the covid tests is worth and when anyone questions it they try to counter it by saying, yeah but it's not just Covid. Does anyone actually have any idea what it's worth???

Fincapp broker note 3rd February should give us an idea, since it was before Covid. At the time the share price was circa 26p. Fincapp had a target price of 76p. As far as i can see, there has been very little progress in the core business. They then raised at 18p due to cash flow concerns due to Covid, but Fincapp reiterated the price target of 76p. I can't see any developments in the core business that justifies the 26p to 76p target price gap being closed. Fincapp broker note suddenly comes out with all these wild valuations on the fundraise that they have never spoken about before. The fact is the growth is purely because people have got carried away with Covid potential counting billions in sales before they even have a product. The CEO mentioned some wildly optimistic figures in a presentation and things have got out of hand IMO. I can see one update on the core business since 2 Feb which might have added 20% to the share price, which looks generous. So i have to assume at least £1.20 of the share price is weighted on Covid, so around $300m.

I like what they are doing and if they deliver in time with therapeutics there is huge upside, but sorry for me the valuation is 3-5 years ahead of itself if you are arguing it is due to the core business and if your arguing it's based on covid tests then as i said this prices in a hell of a lot of future sales. I hope I have given a fair account of why, and if anyone can show me a valuation model that proves otherwise i'll gladly look at it and review my opinion. Apologies for talking about this on here, but wanted to give my reasons on earlier points as others have questioned it.

Happy to be proven wrong.

ODX is much simpler to value future potential. You know the capacity you know the unit prices, do the maths at whichever utilisation rate you think will be achieved. Use a low income multiplier of 5, more likely should be 8-10, and you can model valuations and get much higher than we have today.

DD - The IP!! Really? They have no commercial advantage over what ODX have with Mologic, the only difference it would have cost ODX much less in sunk costs. The way to make money out of a product is making and selling it. Mologic and ODX can show proven success. 1m ODX antigen tests sold per month will be worth as much to ODX as 1m AVCT tests sold per month is worth to them, if not more as AVCT are not making it themselves, BBI will take margin.

Hustler, please tell me what the MCAP of AVCT was before the Covid announcement and please tell me how the core business has moved forward since that announcement because every single RNS since other than the $45m raised has been about Covid? I don't doubt it has potential but $400m mcap today.... why is it OK for so much future potential to be priced into AVCT but ODX has to prove sales??

Ethio - i hope they do too, for the sake of anyone invested and for the sake of tackling Covid.

GK/NK - yes i know there is more to AVCT, but the core business is also unproven and currently generating less income/profit than Omega's core business. The core business had very little value before the Covid tests.

Anyway my point was that ODX valuation has a long way to go, not knocking AVCT. But with one it seems OK to forward price in a ridiculous amount of potential future orders that are a long way off being realised and the other that has approved tests and production capacity in place has to see cash in the bank with paid for orders to see any value. Get my point.....

AVACTA $400+m with no test.... we have 2 already CE marked, 1 CE mark due any day, the Antigen Elisa CE marked by end of Sep and Antigen Lateral flow 2 months after.

IMO investors have got things very wrong they are valuing speculative development much higher than actual cash generation. Omega have cash cow products, ready to go. This will generate real profits which will have real value.

We have only 2m capacity and that 2m capacity fully utilised is worth $900+m. We are going to have to add more.

Best thing is that is just a small part of what Omega are building. It's great to see visual tangible evidence. That kit might as well be printing money over the next few years.

Spike to 90p on sky interview, it's so much more solid since then. It's on the cusp of greatness. There just has to be a significant update about to land in the next few days.

I do think the antigen tests with Mologic could be a dark horse, and i think they will outshine others hopes with the lateral flow test.

This is absolute confirmation that within the supply agreement, any excess from UK Gov will be sold privately and likely more profitably. They must have the UK Gov contract finalised if they can start signing distribution agreements elsewhere.

Clearly lots going into distribution already. Supply will be behind demand, they will sell as many as they can make.

Sneller has retired he is at a stage in his life where he wants to put his wealth to work through his charitable trust, at a time when charities really need it. Still has over 16m shares so plenty for the ride. He wont want to pay tax on his gains, and the charitable trust is tax exempt. He has offloaded another 1.7m, it doesn't say charitable donation but i believe it doesn't have to as its not the charitable donation that has taken him below the next threshold, it is the tiny dilution.
This has held the share price back no doubt we would be higher without this supply. It's good for those of us that have been topping up.
Not too much to read into this. It will be more interesting if at some point we get a new TR1 holding, which i'll be surprised if it doesn't happen by the end of Sep.

Do you really have no idea where to find the Q&A? This is such a valuable piece of info for investors along with the accompanying presentation. It spells everything out as clear as can be.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/financial-results-for-the-year-ended-31-march-2020

4 - Lab based Antigen tests. Currently in development, expected to complete any day and go into validation towards CE mark by the end of September. This will be a fast, cheap test with high throughput and saliva based. Expect it to be very competitive with existing offerings. Antigen tests are more expensive and profitable than antibody, therefore this will be a significant step forward for Omega.
5 - Lateral flow antigen tests. Expected 2 months after lab test. A potential game changer, as so far nobody has achieved a self tests antigen test. We are right up there with timelines of potential offerings. The biggest problem may be manufacturing capacity as we could be maxed out by the time this is ready. It is more profitable than the lateral flow antibody tests.

Omega have a very unique offering of lab and lateral flow Antibody and Antigen tests. A fantastic and highly profitable portfolio.

Omega have 5 tests in their product portfolio.

1) UK RTC - Consortium formed at the request of UK Government due to failures of other companies to produce a reliable test. This will be the gold standard test. Omega have committed 200k units per week under the initial MOU. The UK Government plan on providing these to the public free of charge to perform a mass antibody screen of the nation. The UK government have banned the sale of any other test aimed at self use. ANy other tst must gain self test approval. So far no other test has achieved this. The performance of the UK RTC test is competitive with the lab tests currently offered by other companies, therefore it is unlikely this test will be beaten on performance. It is highly likely the supply agreement will exceed the initial 200k units, and it is highly likely there will be interest and demand outside of the UK Government. The Government have no need to rush an agreement through as they have first refusal. Omega have been going through tech transfer in August which is expected to be completed with validation batches any day, and moving into production of 100k units per week in Sep and 200k in Oct. Omega capacity is planned to increase to 1m per week. Omega will supply a sealed lateral flow device to UK RTC.

2) Mologic.
Mologic have 5 Covid tests either developed or in development:

1 - Elisa Lab based tests - Already CE market, tech transfer complete and manufacturing commenced. Local approvals have started to be achieved. This is a very accurate test, cheap and very competitive in the markets that Omega are targeting. It does not need specific analyser equipment like some of the bigger name products out there. It can also work from a finger prick self test and can be distributed and returned by post. We are waiting for further news on the approval of this, which will likely spark sales. Sales updates for professional use are due any day, with Africa and India the likely main markets.
2 - Professional use Rapid Test - This is a professional use test CE marked by Mologic which Omega do not have an interest in. It is being made at their newly created manufacturing and training facility in Bedfordshire through a separate non profit organisation.
3 - Lateral Flow self tests - CE mark is expected by the end of August. Tech transfer and commercial sales expected in September. This is a good performing test and competitive on price. Demand is expected to be strong in target markets. Currently Omega has reserves 800k per week capacity for Mologic lateral flow devices. The profit to Omega is likely greater than UK RTC tests as this will be an Omega branded and packaged complete product, rather than just supplying the lateral flow sealed casing like with UK RTC.
TBC...

Seriously MIKODX - No i am not confused at all. We are currently awaiting the CE mark of the Mologic Lateral FLow test, it is due any day.

The Rapid Test that is CE Marked by Mologic is a professional use test. Here's what Mologic say.

"This professional-use RDT sits alongside the other COVID-19 diagnostics Mologic has developed, including lab-based and at-home antibody tests, as well as lab-based, professional use and at-home antigen tests."

Omega are not producing the professional use test. And again i refer you back to the Q&A questions 1 and 70. It tells you exactly where the CE marking process is as of July., There has been no RNS to confirm it is achieved... yet.

Mikodx it is not a lateral flow test, it is their rapid test. It is not a test that Omega are interested in.

Ton1c - yes of course it should say per week. Apologies.

The Investor Presentation and Q&A is a gift, like a roadmap of the next few months. Should be committed to memory for any serious investor.

For anyone else too lazy to do the work.... here's a summary of what to expect.

August:
Completion of scale up
Completion of tech transfer
ODX validation batches
MHRA self test approval pre-approval
UK Government/UK RTC supply agreement
Possible updates on Elisa sales
CE mark of Mologic Lateral flow test

September:
Production at 100k UK RTC per day
CE mark of Elisa Anitgen test
Tech transfer of Mologic lateral flow test

Also expecting:
Announcement of national government mass testing strategy
Further developments on Antibody science
Approval of finger prick for self test for Elisa antibody test
Other local approvals and sales of Elisa antibody test
CD4 WHO approval - received
China self test approval

Careful with that egg on your face there Mikodx. Perhaps aim your comments at yourself. I don't make these things up it comes from company updates.

ODX have not got the CE mark for the Mologic Lateral Flow test yet.

Question 70 in the Investor Presentation Q&A.

• Mologic ELISA antibody test is already CE-Marked.
• Mologic lateral flow antibody test is expected to be CE-Marked by the end August 2020.
• Assuming the Mologic ELISA antigen development is completed in August then we would expect to CE-Mark this test towards the end of September / early October 2020.
• We would expect the Mologic lateral flow antigen test to be CE-Marked approximately two months later than the ELISA version.