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Added a few this morning. Approaching my target holding now, hopefully next week.

Looks to be on the up, now NT at 60 and offered 59.22. A little buy pressure here and into 60s.

£1.30 - is that the special dividend per share we will get in about 18 months!

This is one of the big misconceptions here IMO.

"The actual Lateral flow tests, are owned by Mologic and Abingdon Health. Omega will only be manufacturing the tests. "

People are putting value on other companies that have concepts, with lower chance of success and lower quality products because they are excited about the fact they have done the development on their own and own the IP. Development is expensive speculative and you don’t make a penny unless the product is of sufficient quality and you have means to make it and sell it.

Omega have availability of high quality products that they have capacity and ability to monetise. Make and sell. Without sunk development costs. Just because the development is done off of Omega’s books that doesn’t make it less valuable to Omega. The fact is they will make and sell. In the case of the UK RTC the best quality product with guaranteed buyer at a level of guaranteed supply at a lower price with excess sold more profitably. With Mologic it will be Omega branded products. They just didn’t have to go through the expense and pain of development. They are high quality products that they can make and sell at quantity at a healthy margin. Omega’s capabilities lie in manufacturing and distribution. They have set themselves up perfectly. This is much more valuable that a company with products under development, because Omega are already on the path to monetise.

It is the manufacturing and distribution of products that bring in the money, not development. We can adapt our product mix to match demand.

Share price was higher than this on 1st May, before the Antigen tests and Mologic lateral flow agreements, before UK RTC design freeze, before UK RTC CE mark, before funding to increase the capacity 5 fold, before 2 new development tests, before Elisa India approval, before closure of a loss making business. Anyone buying now is getting in at pre news price heavily derisked with huge upside.

The UK RTC commitment is 100k to 200k. Capacity is 1m lateral flow and 1m Elisa

here's the maths:

So if everything goes to plan, all the tests come to market on time and capacity utilisation is 100%:

£3 average selling price x 2m tests per week x 52 weeks a year = £312m revenues
Add Food tolerance and CD4 = £350m revenues. Average margin of 55% = Gross profit of £192.5m
Lets say admin and selling costs double call it £12.5m = Net Profit £180m.
5 x Earnings would be £900 MCAP. £5.30 per share

Opposite end of the scale, assume the bare minimum happens from what is already promised:

Based On 200k RTC tests, 46k per day Elisa tests and 200k per day Mologic tests by end of Sep, £1.50 average selling price annualised earnings would be £106m revenues at 55% average margin £58.3m gross profit. Say admin and selling up 50% = £9m. Net profit = £49.3m.
At 5 x earnings valuation £246m. £1.44p per share

Low ball is nailed on by the end of Sep in my opinion, and i find it highly unlikely baring a miracle that capacity utilisation wont be nearer the top end rather than the 10% scenario above.

To get to the top end we need the Antigen Elisa tests up and running by Oct and the POC tests by Dec. I prefer to treat these as a bonus at the moment.

My expected scenario:

Assume we will use 80% capacity for Lateral flow antibody test and 50% capacity for Elisa antibody. = £141m revenues @ 55% margin = £77.55m gross profit = £68.55 net profit = £343m @ 5 x earnings. = £2 a share.

This is my minimum expectation by year end. With just antibody tests and no antigen tests. Just an announcement that the lateral flow antigen tests are good to go, then double my valuation in the above scenario.

What do we need for this to happen?

RTC test approval - highly likely given the process and people involved in design and the fact the whole consortium have already move forward with capacity expansion.
Lateral flow utilisation of 80%. Well RTC is 200k minimum. I'll be shocked if they do not want more. Mologic lateral flow tests will come on board shortly, with 75 countries available to distribute. Capacity should achieve 100% but im confident 80% is guaranteed.
50% Elisa tests - Mologic agreement of 46k per day is already 30%
Food tolerance - China self test approval - highly anticipated to come soon
CD4 WHO approval and continued orders - delayed from start of the year due to covid. Highly anticipated.

BTW 5 x earnings is conservative based on the unknown time of this virus and the fact i have ignored tax. A higher multiple is achievable it could be anything from 5 to 30.

maybe each time he changes his profile name he forgets everything... would be like a fish, 2 second memory

TBH i dont really know what all the fuss is about.

The DnaNudge test looks fantastic. There seem to be a lot of PIs across various boards complaining about this. They are not going to award a small AIM cap a contract just because you have taken a position and want to make a few quid.

Regarding ODX - The UKRTC test is already part of Government plan's. We already have a commitment of 200k tests per week. It is the best possible test and will be bought in the millions. We do not have to worry about where demand will come from.

Everyone else complaining about Antigen tests - well this looks about the best test i have seen so far on the market. Lampore also looks advanced compared to others. Others are either first generation tests that have done a job to some extent, but i am yet to see anything else come out of development as good as what this sounds. There are serious challenges with a POC antigen test that are different from a point of care antibody tests. I've said this before that NCYT benefited from early adoption but will need to continually evolve to compete with better offerings. Even these tests are not going to be the end game tests. A saliva based lateral flow device is the end game. So far nobody has achieved this.
Yes there may be some politics behind contract awards but it also comes down to the tests.

Several companies will continue to push the boundaries with Antigen and Antibody testing. There are so many markets for tests, and ODX have high quality tests, so we should not worry about demand. I think the capacity plan they have is on the low end of meeting demand, and we know how valuable 2m tests per week will be.

Speed of Antigen testing has been a problem for some time, and the next generation of tests will make the early adopters sweat. We were not an early adopter we are waiting to get the next generation tests available.

The fact they are looking at a test that determines between flu and covid is a sign they expect a problematic winter ahead.

I wouldn't be surprised if they dont want to do the mass antibody testing until January, so that the positive results is up high enough so they can start working towards herd immunity. Goal for UK RTC produce as many as possible before Y/E.

People are panicking because other companies are being mentioned with the UK Government. We have been with the Government since day 1. We do not need to be worried about competition. The people running the testing programme have been involved from day 1. It was only ever a matter of if they could produce the test of sufficient quality and it has already been achieved. Government contract is now a given it is not up for debate.

Based on the expected production of tests per Abingdon it will take the consortium 6 months to produce 10m tests. ODX share is 20%.

10m tests is not enough in 6 months. They need 5x that amount at least. If ODX were to be asked to make 5x as many that, then full capacity is used and nothing left for Mologic.using all their capacity and leaves nothing for Mologic tests.

of course it's frustrating, it should never be at this level with what's already delivered.

share price got to 60p in April and so much has been delivered since. Potential is 5 times higher and speculative development has been successfully achieved.

i think a lot of people are buying and selling without understanding it fully. ODX are building something substantial to set them up for the future, not just an overnight win-fall. People just want the win-fall and if it don't happen in 2 days think it wont at all.
As an investment, end of the year we will be winning big time

It seems a lot of people are waiting for ODX to come out with the "magic formula". Well they already have the magic formula. UK RTC will be so much bigger than what even the most hopeful believe. The fact the UK Government are funding it and will mop up a lot of it's early supply is leading it to be under hyped. If there were 1bn of these tests sat in a warehouse available for sale, i reckon they would be gone by the weekend. The mologic tests are very competitive, and the biggest problem will be meeting demand. Antibody tests have not yet come of age, partly due to the quality of tests and partly due politics and science. Our products take care of step 1.

This has always been about manufacturing, high volume and high margin. People are worried about who does what, who owns what etc. You only make money from a product by making it and selling it. The amount you make depends on how many you make and sell and at what margin. The amount you sell depends on demand. Demand depends on quality and price. Our margins will be 50%. Demand will be in excess of our capacity, because the quality is unrivalled. They just need that little bit of time to get the transition from development into manufacturing and sales right. This is where we are now. We are close to the real meaty news now.

They have the funds and the plan to increase capacity 4/5 times beyond what could have been expected 2 months ago. The key is utilisation of this capacity. Low end poor performance of sales gives us a valuation of multiples of today. High end utilisation gives many many multiples.

We are in a global pandemic with the best portfolio of products, with proven manufacturing experience and a distribution network. We are far advanced of many other offerings out there. The only place where we full behind is time to market, because we have taken the time to get the products right, the plan right and ensure we have the capacity, with the best products that will generate sales over the coming years. Our products will secure income for several years, rather than rush out products to make a quick buck for a few months.

ODX have delivered so much already which has been largely overlooked, and they have so much more to come.

It seems the mood has gone back to being led by the share price rather than actual fundamentals. CE mark is a very big step and this is what actually enables us to commercialise the product and the accuracy and quality has delivered everything they set out to achieve that others couldn't. Demand will be unquestionable.

Ethio - I think the contract is probably all but signed. And yes i think it will come before PHE approval. They need to start stock piling.

The RTC will be used for mass testing. It's clear. A mass testing program on a scale never been seen before. They are already working on an app to log the results. They have no worries about the competition, because not only is it the best test but they already have a position in a government led testing program.
The best antibody test in the world, but we are already part of the largest mass testing program in the world. Orders are a given, the government commissioned the test. The key thing for ODX is that they have committed 200k, they are working to build 1m capacity, but they have the Mologic tests which will be more profitable because we will be delivering the full package, not just the lateral flow device. So we need to negotiate so that if we use more capacity for RTC tests we are not shooting ourselves in the foot but not being able to make more profitable tests. There are 3 solutions. 1 keep adding more capacity, 2 restrict UK RTC to 200k, or 3 negotiate a better price for UK RTC. The Mologic tests are not just an excellent product to add to the portfolio, they are also a bargaining tool. I personally expect an increase on 200k untis for the Gov, perhaps up to 500k for a period of time. Plus private sales. So i can see UK RTC taking up our full capacity. Need to therefore find additional capacity for Mologic tests. With these tests they will use 100% capacity i am confident.

It's clear from the FInncap note financially how beneficial each piece is at different capacity.

Regarding the UK strategy, it's always been about timing. They will deliver the mass testing program when all the pieces have been put together and when the testing program suits the phase of the pandemic. The longer they wait to mass test, the higher the immunity rate, the easier it is to share the go forward management.

Problem with waiting for orders is the premium you could pay on a UK RTC supply agreement or other large agreement could be huge. Part of investing is working out things like this for yourself. With our capacity, the quality of products and a global pandemic, it's not difficult to deduce that sales will be at a level that adds significant value. The risk is in the products, and that risk has been greatly mitigated. And the capacity is there and funded.

Things are going backwards. The virus around the world is thriving. Omega are getting to the crunch point to start delivering tests. This is really undervalued for the significant cash flows about to be generated over the next 18 months and beyond.

We have the best tests possible. Demand for our tests will greatly exceed supply.

Our test will be right at the top in terms of competition in India. Price, quality, throughput, accessibility. No problems.

I find it odd the mainstream media aren't going mad over this.

Just thinking how huge this is they have achieved something every other diagnostics company has tried and failed. Something that is desperately needed by the masses.

Of course it's disappointing, we all invest on the basis that positive progress = share price appreciation. And over the long term it will.

It's not about being priced in because most of the times the trade button is pressed whether buy or sell this is not based on pricing the stock at value, it is based on price action which is a completely different thing. There will be at least 2 RNS updates in the next month or so that will blow this out the water.