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Listen to Colin explain our Elisa tests in comparison to others and you will understand why we will be competitive in India:

Cheap
Finger prick sample not blood draw, so can be sent out or done away from medical facility at point of care
High quality/accuracy
Does not require specific analyser equipment so can be done anywhere.

This will be the best offering in this market until a lateral flow test with sufficient accuracy and right price point

Absolute gift anyone loading up low 30s.

Im getting NT to buy

Sorry i meant to say inventor of lateral flow not investor.

Mologic Lateral Flow antibody i think he said tech transfer Aug/Sep, sales sept/oct. Current capacity of 100k/200k is committed to RTC already so we need upscaled production in order to start manufacturing the Mologic test.

Not much known about Antigen lateral flow, still in development. Worth noting Mologic's scientific adviser and co founder was one of the original investors of lateral flow tests through the clear blue pregnancy tests and their rapid diagnostics research department was funded by the Bill Gates foundation. So it's fair to say they know what they are doing.

They kind of let slip they decided to fund raise on 8th May.

Share price 7th may. 57.5p
Share price 12th May 49p.

News in that period 0

So conversations with the broker would have been ongoing. Clear there was a bit of selling after that decision.

It makes the speeding ticket and the share price action since make a lot more sense knowing placing was already in discussion. If you look at the chart armed with this knowledge that placing was decided 8th May, and done on 19th June, it tells you a lot more about the share price and how it is manipulated with forward sells. Placing was probably announced after enough shares were forward sold from the spike on 1 June. And then it was suppressed because 60% of the placing was conditional.
This is why we have all been suffering not because of the company performance and prospects, and this presentation has just added weight to that. All IMO

They last notified i think on 1 May. They sold a few more most likely in the next few days but didn't take them below the next notifiable holding level. The dilution took them below this level when the new shares hit on Monday.

Whistler, first off, if we reach max capacity, the party will be in full swing by then and i doubt anyone will much mind!

UK RTC government sales and private sales, Mologic antibody tests and mologic antigen tests. It is easy to see how 1m lateral flow test per week will be hit.

First questions, is capacity based on 5/7 day week, 8 hour day, 12 hour day, 24 hour day? Can capacity be stretched within existing resources?

Secondly, they will generate so much free cash flow on reaching full capacity, if they need and want to invest in further capacity, its £3m capex to add 1.5m per week. They are being very cautious with the plan. Demand will drive any further decisions on capacity.

Yes Faz - why wont the Government want more. 100k to 200k was agreed at a time when ODX only had capacity to produce 100k, so this was based on Omega's capabilities, not the UK RTC demand. ODX capabilities have now changed. If the contract says we can privately sell above what the UK RTC want and they want say 500k, we are gonna need a bigger boat, as we are going to need to be able to produce a lot more than 1m per week when you throw private demand and mologic test demand into the hat.

100k for starters, just because you cant just double capacity from day 1. 200k once production up and running. Government will likely want as many as they can get. Omega in a strong negotiation position because they have other products to use their capacity which are more profitable. So if the government want more, they need to make it worth while seeing as the mologic tests are worth twice as much. If the Mologic tests are worth twice as much as the UK Government contract, how much will the UK RTC tests be worth to other buyers, as this must be more than the Mologic tests as it's a better product. They are in a really strong position here, and i will be surprised if by year end capacity isn't greater than 1m. I think if they could make 10m a week they would sell them.

600 people watching! I'll be surprised if the net change in position of those 600 people in the morning isn't a net gain!

I have to say that exceeded my expectations with the quality of that presentation and the clarity of the opportunities and info provided. I did have some fear it would underwhelm. Excellent job Colin, whether the share price goes up done or nowhere tomorrow.

Just one other thing... remember this profitability will be achieved during a time that the wider market and many blue chip stocks will be struggling to turn any profit at all and many will book substantial losses.

Point of note... i am a buyer early next week so i dont mind if you can save me some in the low 30s please.

Look, be realistic. It is not a get rich overnight scheme. It is building a business that has longevity beyond covid. The steps to sales and the timelines are clear. We are still in the development phase. Give it 6 months and so much will be achieved.

So you've just had confirmed everything i have been saying about this company from the horses mouth. Here's a reminder of the numbers based on certain scenarios:

So if everything goes to plan, all the tests come to market on time and capacity utilisation is 100%:

£3 average selling price x 2m tests per week x 52 weeks a year = £312m revenues
Add Food tolerance and CD4 = £350m revenues. Average margin of 55% = Gross profit of £192.5m
Lets say admin and selling costs double call it £12.5m = Net Profit £180m.
5 x Earnings would be £900 MCAP. £5.30 per share

Opposite end of the scale, assume the bare minimum happens from what is already promised:

Based On 200k RTC tests, 46k per day Elisa tests and 200k per day Mologic tests by end of Sep, £1.50 average selling price annualised earnings would be £106m revenues at 55% average margin £58.3m gross profit. Say admin and selling up 50% = £9m. Net profit = £49.3m.
At 5 x earnings valuation £246m. £1.44p per share

Low ball is nailed on by the end of Sep in my opinion, and i find it highly unlikely baring a miracle that capacity utilisation wont be nearer the top end rather than the 10% scenario above.

To get to the top end we need the Antigen Elisa tests up and running by Oct and the POC tests by Dec. I prefer to treat these as a bonus at the moment.

My expected scenario:

Assume we will use 80% capacity for Lateral flow antibody test and 50% capacity for Elisa antibody. = £141m revenues @ 55% margin = £77.55m gross profit = £68.55 net profit = £343m @ 5 x earnings. = £2 a share.

This is my minimum expectation by year end. With just antibody tests and no antigen tests. Just an announcement that the lateral flow antigen tests are good to go, then double my valuation in the above scenario.

Instead of saying xyz share price is not possible do some sums. It's not a difficult company to put a valuation on. Even if you don't like some of the numbers put your own in. I bet you you get a lot higher than 40p.

What do we need for this to happen?

RTC test approval - highly likely given the process and people involved in design and the fact the whole consortium have already move forward with capacity expansion.
Lateral flow utilisation of 80%. Well RTC is 200k minimum. I'll be shocked if they do not want more. Mologic lateral flow tests will come on board shortly, with 75 countries available to distribute. Capacity should achieve 100% but im confident 80% is guaranteed.
50% Elisa tests - Mologic agreement of 46k per day is already 30%
Food tolerance - China self test approval - highly anticipated to come soon
CD4 WHO approval and continued orders - delayed from start of the year due to covid. Highly anticipated.

BTW 5 x earnings is conservative based on the unknown time of this virus and the fact i have ignored tax. A higher multiple is achievable it could be anything from 5 to 30.

Understand why the Elisa offering is better than Roche/Abbott. There it is.

Fake news Wolves - the placing dilution has reduced their holding, hence why the event changing the breakdown of voting rights is ticked rather than the acquisition disposal box

Posted by RoxburyHouse only 1 day ago:
America shuts down again 14 Jul 2020 05:58
Make no mistake this virus is with us forever.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/politics/donald-trump-states-economy-coronavirus/index.html

Posted by Roxbury House no fewer than 2 days ago:
Out-of-control coronavirus disaster in Florida 13 Jul 2020 15:56
Make no mistake this viruses is with us now forever and is the new norm. I remember laughing at people wearing masks. I ain’t laughing anymore.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/13/politics/donald-trump-florida-coronavirus-reopening/index.html

Need i say any more? Sold out yesterday.

Final point on this, they have quoted £3m to increase from circa 500k capacity to 2m capacity. By the time they reach full capacity they will have plenty of free cash flow should they want to add more capacity. So dont see 2m as the maximum capacity. It's always possible this can go higher if the products perform as i expect them to. I can see this happening if they are maxing out on capacity with antibody tests by the time the antigen tests are ready.