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We are sitting around the 23.6|% fib retracement of the move from low 30s to high 60s. It's a bullish area to consolidate in.

Can sell at 59.5 and it's NT to buy £500 worth. So perhaps a bit of order filling. Added a few at 60.8 seeing as my spain trip is cancelled.

Upomega, i tend to agree that the India orders and other country orders will be several smaller orders. Well at least that's what i am basing my expectation on. Which of course may well fill a large quota of our total capacity which is the key.

However i do see a world where India can form the basis of a significantly larger play. Our Elisa test is highly competitive for that market, on price, performance, throughput and accessibility, in particular with the ability to collect blood from a finger prick. I am sure this will be right at the top of the list of products for those in the market for lab tests in India. When the lateral flow test is live this should also be in high demand and highly competitive in India. I think you need to rethink the plan for manufacturing and distribution if looking at a larger play with India and other countries in the region.

Ethio, my idea of how best this could turn out, is that the Mologic agreement is as much a bargain tool than anything. To use in negotiations with Uk RTC to say we have other products so if you want more it has to be worth while, but we don’t want to tie up too much so we can’t sell privately. I would say make 1m Uk RTC tests, perhaps for a number of weeks Uk gov take all then it drops so we can sell privately. Make 1m Uk RTC tests and find more capacity for Mologic elsewhere.

My take on share price without putting a number on it, is UK RTC could over deliver with increase in units above 200k expected, with provision to sell excess privately and global media coverage as part of a mass nationwide testing strategy, i’m expecting a premium on this above the commercial value. I think sp will surprise many on this alone. Mologic antibody depends on how much capacity left for POC after Uk RTC, and utilisation of Elisa capacity. I’d like to see a Mologic update first to clear out some short termers before UK RTC. Could be worth double to 10x Uk RTC depending on product mix. Add antigen tests and sp could double from the re-rate on antibody tests.
Cd4 and food could add 50-100p, although I upset this could take tim to realise as most people are in for Covid and I’m not sure will appreciate the significance of these.
Increase capacity beyond 2m and sky is the limit. There could be a surprise along the way too.

Upomega, id have to go back through the accounts to give a proper view, but I think the profits coming our way will leave capex amortisation an insignificant expense. The beauty of our Covid products is we have no r&d expense. On a existing product line view id expect profit margins to improve as WHO CD4 approval and food self test approval is granted and generates significantly higher sales.
Burnet, an interesting link, I’ll see anything there as a big bonus, not to be ruled out but too many knows to wait for already!
I agree with Davde, what really interests me is what they will do with their significant cash flow over the coming years. I’m not worried about the long term future as I’m confident that Covid testing will be a round for longer than most think and it will be a stepping stone to a larger diagnostics business going forward.

Lot's of worrying updates regarding Covid around the Globe coming out of the weekend. Sadly this pandemic is still thriving.

Spain holidays back off the cards. Quarantine and fines with under controversy.
Global cases up by over a million in 4 days, which is a significant increase seeing as confirmed cases are 16m.

The threat to life is ever present.
The disruption to our economy and ability to go about our day to day lives may go backwards before forwards.
The case for immunity passports is getting stronger.
The need for point of care testing is getting stronger.

ODX as an investment is positioned perfectly to capitalise from this unfortunate situation we find ourselves in. High quality testing with a global market. Demand will greatly exceed what ODX can supply and top end valuation at 100% utilisation is £970m. Surely the day the UK RTC is front page news is coming. Supply agreement and national testing program, with ability to sell excess tests privately will catapult our share price. Other big plays also on top of that mean we have a great rest of the year ahead.

Reminder of Colin's comments on approval.

Competitive offering suitable for India on cost, throughput, performance. Doesn't require specific diagnostics equipment like other offerings. Can be performed by finger prick tests rather than blood draw so more scalable and accessible.
Sales team in place
Customer base already established

"We have an established direct sales team and we believe a reliable and high-performance antibody test will be very attractive to our laboratory customers. India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world and has a population of over 1.3 billion people. Clearly this is an important market for us to target and I look forward to updating shareholders on our commercial traction."

Chuggley - i tend to agree it is most likely smaller orders and that's what i'm currently basing my expectations on.... but there could well be a much bigger opportunity.

The way i see it.....

UK RTC - This is the flagship product. UK Government contract will be a very good banker money maker. This should command a premium with the fanfare of the global strategy.
Look out for an uplift on the 200k per week units expected, and the clause to be able to sell excess privately will be worth a fortune. Get that sorted and i would say 2m tests per week needs serious consideration to increase further.

Mologic Elisa test. I do expect several smaller orders which together will add up to a healthy profit. There may well be a bigger opportunity to secure larger government contracts. The competitiveness of this test is increasing based on cost, throughput and the poor performance of other tests.

India - There could be a bigger opportunity with all the mologic offerings to set up a larger operation in india. It would need large contracts and i am not sure how quickly a production or distribution facility could be set up there. This is highly speculative and i dont expect this to happen, but it could. But it could service the wider asian region. If we can make UK RTC tests and sell privately i would find it hard to justify using the current capacity plan for Mologic Lateral flow tests as i am certain 1m UK RTC wont be enough. I find it interesting the tech transfer for this is expected after the UK RTC test and contract will be secured. Maybe they do have a trick up their sleeve to make these somewhere else, closer to where the demand for these tests might be?

When the antigen tests are ready that really gives them a good problem of how to make enough.

ODX really have pulled a blinder with the product portfolio. Manufacturing and distribution is where they are really strong.

I still think with the products we have even with 2m tests per week capacity it wont be enough. Which is crazy seeing as the top end valuation at full capacity is £970m.

Perhaps Colin is holidaying in India!!! lol

Not the right guy. Our guy spent 15 years working for GSK and TF establishing their Diagnostics business. Great if he is in charge of driving the products over there. Surely we should set up a production facility!

"Mr. Prashant Maniar is the Managing Director of Omega Dx (Asia) Pvt Limited, a subsidiary of Omega Diagnostics Group Plc., since October 2011. He has worked in the diagnostics industry for 25 years. He started his career as Production Head in Cadila Laboratories. He then spent 15 years working for GlaxoSmithKline and ThermoFisher Scientific in various roles establishing their diagnostic business in India with 14 collaborations with national and multinational companies. In his most recent role he established the Microbial Control business for Lonza India. He has been responsible for the commercial set up of Omega Dx (Asia) Pvt Ltd and has transitioned the Group’s business in India from distributor to wholly owned subsidiary."

Roche claimed 100% accuracy based on a test sample size of 8. And this was lab samples not taking blood from patients. They self validated. UK RTC have done a live test on over 3000 people. As it’s a lateral flow test it can’t be self validated.

With regard to immunity, nobody has had Covid twice still. The use of antibody testing is multi purpose. Uk gov will do a mass surveillance test regardless of what the consequence of the result means.

It couldn’t be more obvious what the intention of this article is!!!!

The problem with a vaccine is the same problem as natural antibodies. They dont know how long immunity would last from a vaccine immune response just like they dont know how long natural immunity lasts. We will have testing before a vaccine, alongside a vaccine and after.

The Mologic test will be Omega branded and they can distribute as they please through their distribution network, which includes US.

One of the advantages of the Mologic Elisa test is that you dont need specific analyser machines like with Roche and Abbott so they can be done in any lab and can handle much higher throughput. Plus they will have finger prick testing. Our Elisa test could have a real foothold in USA.

BTW it does kind of validate the fundraising, as we dont want all this demand out there and to be only able to make 100/200k a week.

A - this shows why the UK Gov need to sort the supply agreement out asap.
B - Even at full capacity it will be months before the 4 companies can satisfy UK demand alone.

I think they have seriously underestimated the size of the capacity needed here even after significant expansion. 1m lateral flow tests simply is not enough. For the cash we expect to make, we might as well take a risk and throw everything we can at it. Even if the capacity is not used post covid, it will pay for itself in weeks. Get recruiting, get this second facility in Dundee sorted and make sure it's further scalable, get the UK government number up to 1m a week asap, make more to sell privately, sell Mologic tests and then panic you have no capacity when Antigen tests are available and then grow some more! They've been working day and night to get development sorted delivering years of work in months, now carry that into production.

ODX have a plan that at top end valuation gives us £970m. But i am starting to worry it's not ambitious enough!

A little bit of info on CE marking:

Lab tests can be self certified with a short validation and self CE marked. Roche and Abbott have done this. It's been clear once in use that they have proved to be less accurate than they claimed.

Mologic Lab test was independently CE marked.

Lateral flow tests have to be independently CE marked. It basically needs an Independent relevant body to verify and acclaim. Like Ulster Uni for example. Mologic lateral flow test is already CE marked.

CE mark allows sales in the EEA economic area and some other jurisdictions. Sales outside of the EEA may require local validation, but CE mark is a sign of European standards and it's unlikely to be rejected elsewhere.

So this shows we are already moving to the stage where we have 3 products where we expect high demand to go towards contributing to utilisation of 2m tests per week capacity, once we start seeing the scale up complete.

One of the things to remember with this, is the plan for capacity expansion is already under way. 2m tests per week.

1 test, ELisa is CE marked and sales are under way
Mologic Antibody test is CE marked and tech transfer is due to commence next month
UK RTC we have just had it confirmed that CE Mark will be no problem.

This is moving from development into production ans sales, and the risk factor is reducing significantly. We already have a product portfolio that can satisfy the majority, if not all of our capacity. It's just when not if.