Member Info for Merchantbanker

MU345 - They can't debate simple points without deflecting their attention elsewhere.

You got 2 of them here who think getting to a clinical validation via CONDOR is the be all and end all. Firstly it simply isnt. Secondly they are trying to say the Mologic test isn't being assessed through Condor despite Mologic publishing an update today to say that not only it is, but a study has already been done and results shared with DHSC.

Excellent news. Post recommended Timster for the first line.....

Although it is part of Condor and the study HAS been done and results sent to the "Department for Health and Social Care to support the decision making process".

MR.Spacetomato - The reason they have shut down the Antibody test application process is because they have the UK RTC lateral flow test which ODX is a supplier of. It's validation that they are not looking for anything else.
Mologic lateral flow antibody test is being marketed overseas.
Mologic antigen tests we just heard this morning is being trailed at heathrow and feeding the Condor program. I don't get your point?

I'm not trying to make a case for one or the other out of AVCT and ODX.

Okehurst - thanks at last someone willing to have a more sensible discussion.

I appreciate your view, but i really dont buy this intellectual property argument. The way you monetise a product is selling it for more than it costs in volume.

Can you help me here...

Avct are supplying Affimers, Cytiva are developing the test, BBI are manufacturing. Please can you break down AVCT cost and profit per unit, BBI, Cytiva etc. Where is the margin here? I accept if they can bring several manufacturing partners on board it will vastly increase the scale but i'm not convinced the volume will be anywhere near what people expect and that the profit per unit is what many expect.

ODX have a cost price and a selling price. Margin is 50%. I know exactly what each unit is worth to the company. They are only limited by their manufacturing capacity but this can be increased or it can be subcontracted out as they are Omega branded and CE marked products. I reiterate they are Omega products Mologic are transferring the design and rights for Omega's commercialisation.

Affimer - do you have a comprehensive list of tests in the Condor program? That would be interesting to see. Thanks, as it sounds like there's only one.

Condor is the governments way of saying they are sick of so many companies coming forward with tests so they have created an extra layer of red tape. UK RTC test has already got professional approval and is going through self test trials. The Condor program is closed for antibody tests because they have a test, the UK RTC. Mologic Antibody tests will be CE marked and sold overseas so no need to go through condor. And the Mologic Antigen test is going through Condor anyway.

Sorry guys just children that can't have a proper discussion about valid points raised.

Timster - ODX have 5 tests at different stages. 2 of the tests are CE marked and ready for production and capable of being sold. 2 are due to be CE marked any day and the final one is the lateral flow antigen test, which was always the last one and we just heard is being trailed at Heathrow.

Avacta are only producing Pilot batches as far as i am aware you cant ramp up production without an approved product. Is the product development even complete? Have they published sensitivity and specificity yet? Perhaps i am wrong then please correct me as this may help.

DOH - I'm not deramping. All i have said is i have a different view of the significance of the Condor programme, my view of the chances of success is lower than the confidence levels being displayed and the valuation does not present risk/reward for me. There's as good a chance i am wrong as anyone else, but that's my point of view and i'm entitled to provoke some debate to see if any of my points can be satisfactorily challenged.

lol I have no concern in my investment decisions. I never brought it up, i'm not suggesting anyone here sells or buys anything else.

Affimer - I do hope you are correct and i am wrong.

DOH85 - Because i am an investor interested in stocks and in particular covid stocks. If i have mis understood something or wrongly valuing this i want to understand why. I went back over everything at the weekend after some discussions on another board and I couldn't see anything that changed my opinion. Sorry but it's no deramp attempt. I've given an interpretation of the Condor programme which i believe is more factual that the picture being painted here.

Affimer - i completely agree here that the potential is huge, always have. What i am struggling with is how the milestones currently achieved are being valued at this level based on what i perceive as the chance of success here. Are there any diagnostics products currently on the market using Affimers? I feel like what they aim to achieve and claim to be able to achieve is unproven

MR.Spacetomato - RNS dated 9th June will tell you all.

MR.Spacetomato - No that is UK RTC not Mologic, and no ODX are not a service provider to Mologic. I don't want to upset people by talking about another stock any more so i'll leave it there.
Interested in reconciling the risk reward many are seeing in AVCT to what i see though.

Affimer - Sorry but a lot of the comment around is as if Avct already have the best product and are going to take over the world and day!!! Maybe it will happen and good on you for backing it if it does. I just really struggle to piece everything together to come up with the level of confidence that so many have. Maybe I am missing something but I am yet to see a single piece of evidence that convinces me at £400m MCAP that it's worth the risk. Please if i am missing something important I want to know what it is.

MR.Spacetomato - Yes of course. Mologic have designed and developed the test. They will give ODX the design so that ODX can CE mark it as their own product. So the product will come as an ODX branded product not a Mologic branded product. ODX will not be manufacturing it for Mologic, rather for their own distribution.

I didn't bring ODX up and had zero intention of doing so, you did and what you said was factually misleading, unlike my comments on Avct, so I feel obliged to put that right!!

Hi MR.Spacetomato. I wasn't concerned with Mologic or ODX regarding my comments. At the end of the day any test of sufficient quality will do well whether it is currently in any programme or not. We desperately need as many quality tests as possible. The point of my post is that many seem to think that Avct have cracked it and are in a privileged position based on the CONDOR association, which is clearly far from the case.

Yes it's fantastic what Mologic are doing. They have real proven success in this field and they are driven by making a difference in global health, not profit. They also have set up their own manufacturing facilities to fulfil their desire to supply certain underprivileged users. For ODX though, the products will be CE marked and branded as ODX products which they will sell and market to their distribution base, so what Mologic and ODX do with the tests is their own business. ODX are just leveraging or stealing the blueprints and the tests manufactured will be their own to sell commercially and not Mologic's to give away.

Thanks for being polite, although i see no reason not to be as I am only clarifying some facts that seem to be misconstrued too often !!! Yes my posting history is biased towards another stock as that's where i see the greatest risk reward opportunity.

I think you have the perspective of the CONDOR programme wrong. Diagnostics companies apply to CONDOR to have their test evaluated based on completion of a form. CONDOR have not selected AVACTA, they have agreed to take on an evaluation process based on a form meeting the testing criteria. The performance criteria to be accepted is 80% sensitivity, 90% specificity and must not be a swab based RT-PCR test. Acceptance to the CONDOR Programme just means they agree to carry out evaluation of the test along with the several others that also meet the criteria. Testing is done independently in the field on real life situations and not in a controlled lab environment. So it is far from a given that the test is of sufficient quality and is of any more interest than any other tests that have been submitted.

Here's the form to apply:
https://consultations.dhsc.gov.uk/Full-Test-Kit-Covid19

Orders...... Or MHRA self test approval. Or CE mark of the Antigen lab test. Or an update on the lateral flow antigen test. Or food test self test approval.
I also think it's silly to say things like 50s are gone when there's been evidence of a seller at any price for some time.

I really can't see how they are going to manage with only 1m a week lateral flow test capacity. Knowing what 1m a week is worth that is a very interesting prospect. Would love to know how the Dundee site is coming along.