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mowzerrocks - 100% any saliva based antigen diagnostics test will sell far more than what can be made of any of them. I am fully on board with you on that. I full agree that if Avacta can deliver everything they say on the tin, then they are onto a winner, as for any company that can deeliver the same. As i've said for these confidence levels i struggle to understand the chance of success being where many think it is without more concrete evidence at this value. That is all i am saying, i want some evidence. If there is evidence that i dont know about i might be able to take a position. Affimers have not got proven past success in getting a test to market. We have no idea how accurate the tests are and if they meet the requirements to get them into mass use. As soon as this is confirmed i will give it a huge thumbs up. I'll probably even buy one myself. I like it i do. The risk profile for me is just nowhere even close to finding an entry and i doubt that will change until there is an approved test.

Sharehunter - i am not bothered about making friends. I don't think anything i have said here today is unfair. I do think you guys are putting too much confidence on the Condor involvement until more concrete evidence is published and i do think you are underestimating the competition thinking you have a monopoly on lateral flow saliva tests.

JS - I am not stiring. I am just suggesting that you consider there are other products out there and that there is a possibility that the test they are talking about is not Avacta's whether you think its 1% or 99% possible.

ZZ - Sorry i'm not convinced based on AS comments about the quality of the test at this price. That's my opinion. Where does this Mologic is not in Condor come from? They had a live trial which has fed directly into DHSC who are the decision makers, that is a bigger deal that a product that has been accepted for clinical validation. If Avacta test does everything it says on the tin, then i agree it cannot be ignored, but i want proof.

Regarding capacity - i think Omega are probably playing a bit of a game.....

200k committed to UK RTC already. Total planned capacity 1m. Mologic tests are worth more to ODX than UK RTC tsts as they are Omega branded and fully packed and distributed. So if the UK RTC want more if Omega used up Mologic capacity, they would be hurting their ideal product mix. So either the UK RTC has to be worth more to make more, or they need to increase capacity further. I think the current plan is sensible and not over ambitious, and the next idea of total capacity could depend on 4 things.... 1 do they commit more to the UK RTC, does the UK RTC supply outside of the UK Gov or 3 can Omega supply these tests direct to distribution, 4 the arrival of the Antigen tests. Clearly 1m a week is only a drop in the Ocean if all these things move forward.

PL75 - Good for them, at least they have one test they know works.

13th - They have an Elisa tests which does, but also a lateral flow device. So they have a product competing with Avct, but we all know if they both get approved the market is far too big for what they both can make.

Unvrkw - I think there is a bit of confusion here which i would like cleared up.

From an old post which i think was an email shared from Walbrook, my understanding is that the Professional use rapid tests and the Mologic lateral flow test which we had was different, but now on latest info it appears it is one and the same.

Mologic have a facility set up to prioritise supply to nations in need at very low costs. Omega will manufacture for commercial sales.

Timster - Thank you for confirming it is circumstantial based on the breadcrumbs, however large breadcrumbs at that.

BTW Mologic test was started before Avactas and Mologic was awarded a £1m grant by the Government for development, as seen from 6th March press release below, so you are incorrect to say that it is at early stage of development. Mologic do not publish every single minor milestone of their development, they have no audience to please and they are only focused on completing quality tests and the first major announcement may be CE marking of the test. Antibody tests have overtaken but they have been working on rapid point of care antigen tests from day 1. The inclusion in the Heathrow trial is evidence of the progress.

You may all well be right and the manufacturing agreements are a bullish indicator, but please also don't disregard the competition based on a lack of understanding. As i said, been there already and left disappointed.

https://mologic.co.uk/mologic-awarded-c-1-million-by-uk-government-to-develop-rapid-diagnostic-test-for-covid-19/

Jim-Sparks - If you can provide me the answer then that solves it.

BallsTTW - I'd like to know this too. Matt Han**** mentioned today they are working with over 100 companies, so how can there be a level of confidence that it's Avacta. Avacta have never got a test to market with their Affimers, others have proven track records.
MR ST - This was dated June. They mention other companies. Mologic are involved in a real life trial so they are clearly involved now and have a product in the system. Avacta haven't passed clinical validation.

I hope for your sake it is Avacta, i just don'tr understand the level of confidence. Been there before expecting every test they are talking about is the one you want it to be only to be disappointed.

Okehurst it looks like you are inviting me back to the Avct board!!

"Personally I think Avacta will be partnered with all of the 4 main suppliers of LFT’s based in the U.K. eventually ,they are now at 50% as we know" - Potentially. If Avacta can prove their test works. However, ODX have 3 tests already CE marked, 2 of which they can sell a Omega branded product, so why would they use their capacity for Avct tests at lower profitability than make their own? Omega have the best product portfolio out of the 4, the other 3 only have the UK RTC.

"Put aside both businesses opportunities ex Covid 19 ......." - What Omega have is a proven money making model. Making and selling. All Avacta have is r&d and potential. Yes it may be worth a fortune in the future but it is unproven. For me i would have my punt there and my majority holding here based on the risk reward.

"Mologic are very good partner but will they give up their IP margin to ODX when they can secure manufacturing worldwide, doubtful ?" - As per today's RNS, the tests will be Omega branded. Omega have a supply agreement with Mologic, they will no doubt make money on a mark up for supply of materials. You should look at Mologic's business, you will understand their priorities.

"Based on lack of manufacturing scalability , no unique IP of the test itself and potentially no leverage on the price then ODX is being overlooked by the market." - ODX only need to achieve 2m tests per week to reach circa £900m+ valuation. This can be substantiated. ODX is being undervalued, because the risk profile has been greatly managed with approved quality products and a diverse portfolio.

"I think ODX is a brilliant UK engineering business , I like it a lot but it’s growth capacity for the LFT’s is restricted." - If growth is restricted to 2m tests per week and the valuation restricted at £900m plus, i think we would all take that. But they have already confirmed they will increase capacity further with demand.

So you clearly don't know much about ODX and seems unlikely you have any position. Happy to continue the conversation on the AVCT board if you like.

A quick observation.....

Mologic CE marked their triple Antibody test on 3rd June. We have CE marked it exactly 3 months later.

Their way of working is to crack on and we will find out about things when they reach a key milestone.

The inclusion of the Antigen Lateral Flow test in the Heathrow trial is an indicator of the progress made.

ODX say they expect to CE mark the Antigen test around the end of the year. Could this be following the same pattern as the Mologic Antibody test with the Visitect CE mark due 3 months after Mologic CE mark the test, which would mean the Mologic Antigen Lateral Flow test could be due to be CE marked any time soon??

Summary of what Matt Han**** said (I haven't heard the full interview just the bit on the following):

They are working with over 100 companies
There are 3 technologies set to transform Covid testing

1) Move from swab based test to Saliva based
2) Speed of results. Turnaround quicker than 24 hours, while you wait. Described the lab being in the back of a van
3) Pregnancy style test kit, immediate results, taken in the home

A few thoughts on this....

Working with over 100 companies. To make an assumption who will succeed is very dangerous with lack of evidence.
We know from the UK RTC that the process from development to validation by CE mark and then the separate process for self test approval takes some time, so there is a long way to go just yet.
Obviously the news from a few days ago that Mologic are involved in a real life trial is excellent news.

The products ODX have have USPs that will make them very popular. The triple antibody test increases the performance as the three antibodies present and mature at different times. Most test use IgG as these are the antibodies that last longer for immunity.

The market isn't being given a chance. There is still a block seller on the books IMO from looking at the trades. The share price first hit this price at the end of April. If you think what has been delivered since then that is astonishing. The value is worth so much more than this, and once the selling is done it will get to where it should be. In the meantime they just keep delivering the building blocks, and i'll keep buying more when i can.

Another one ticked off and another one added. Expect more if not this week, next but looks like there could be UK Gov news today.

UK RTC Tech transfer complete and Validation batches - Due
Commencement of commercial manufacturing up to 100k units - Due
UK RTC supply contract - Due
MHRA self test approval - Due
Elisa Antibody sales update - Due
Elisa Antibody further approvals update - Due
Elisa finger prick device update - Due
Antigen Elisa test development update - Due
Mologic Antibody lateral flow test CE mark - Achieved
Food Self Test Approval - Due
Update on CD4 orders - Due
Mologic Antibody lateral flow commercial launch - By end Sep

Orders......

We are in a global pandemic where there is a shortage of fast, cheap reliable tests. Mologic and UK RTC are highly competitive on price, quality and speed. We only need demand to match outlets capacity to reach a high valuation. It should not be difficult to understand the demand will be there for these products. How many professional care centres around the world currently have access to a quality rapid antibody test? As shown yesterday the best of the rest that the UK gov had put forward had sensitivity of 84%! We have 2 products as close to 100% as they could be.
Orders can be assumed they are not even on the market yet. You have to assess the market and Mologics products against what’s available, and if you can’t work out the demand will be there you either have not done your research or you are blind. Omega have a distribution network that will take this up.

Remember the Mologic lateral flow device is worth double to us what the UK RTC device is because it will be an Omega branded product, not just supplying the lateral flow device to UK RTC. This is highly significant and commercial launch this month.

UK RTC tests mid morning anyone??!!!

Get in! Another huge milestone. 800k lateral flow capacity set aside for Mologic tests! Clears up the WHO approval as well.
We will have to start calling CK the postman....