Member Info for mattwales

not being funny but brent is up 2.5%...tullow should be up 10% easy.

nevermind they cant keep it down forever....oil will rise on USA approval/rollout

approval followed by rollout it'll head to $55 Brent...uk is nothing, USA everything

approval in sight

https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download

i cant wait for FDA virus approval that should knock oil up over $50 Brent with USA vaccine rollout confirmation news also knocking oil up.

Goldmans/Bank of America/JP Morgan all see $60 Brent next year the likes of Pictet are betting against major USA investment houses.

why would Tullow announce a rights issue now at $49?

At every single RBL if they were under pressure by their banks we would have seen rights issue action at $30 Brent or lower.

It didn't happen and it will not happen because the banks see it as a temporary cycle.

The banks right now would rather roll out another $500m in coupons to build sustained income in a low interest rate environment they know will continue for some time.

China, some refining capacity now online but 2.6m barrels a day of oil extra expected by 2024 and it'll be lower end of expectations because most areas in China are looking to expand operations. China want to be no1 Asian distributor of fuel.

Just one example finished and in trials is below.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2155784-chinas-zpc-starts-trial-runs-at-400000-bd-expansion
https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2020/10/china-to-dominate-asia-and-oceania-s-refinery-capacity-growth-by-2024

Tony, Pictet are going shorter in an oil market where hedge funds are increasingly going long.

It's why other hedge funds are closing shorts here.

Even a 15m increase in oil supply in the USA was shrugged off because hedge funds are looking 3-6 months ahead.
They also know Asia is back to demand and will grow demand again in 2021.

Added to this China wants to overtake the USA in energy supply and has just built major oil refining capacity to overtake the USA. Oil going to China will increase to these new Chinese refiners.

PMO is worth £4bn post merger though (based on 5% PMO/95% Chrysaur).
PMO shareholders end up with min 5% max 5.45% of new company.

Tullow with 1/3rd of PMO new company production and 11% of its market cap would suggest Tullow is undervalued.

i think it could be a Pictet short attack this morning normal investors do not sell 1.5m shares....the 8.10am trade

i think its obvious raising over £8m since September bank talks aren't going well.

even if they need more placing cash they will get it.

acker, him going small just pays for wages as he daudles about.

£3.5m gets RHA into production with up to 9 month wages paid till production.

a further £2m after RHA is in production gets MNH moving along (but he'd be placing at 0.2p approx not at low amounts).

His primary focus i think everyone agrees needs to be RHA up and running then bringing in more MNH.

If he himself is unsure of RHA then MNH needs that £2m to get it moving get production doubled then tripled etc it all helps PREM even if any subsequent profits are rolled into MNH expansion.

if PREM went out and got a similar funding to VAST pending authorised capital raise even if it was at 0.03p absolutely no one would complain.

Most would be shocked PREM had the cash to put RHA into production (with/without offtaker) and had more money to aid MNH expansion and the Gold project.

A lot would be buying into the placing because they'd know it was targeted for that reason.

Even I would be positive on the share because I could suddenly see PREM light at the end of a dark tunnel and would be thinking RHA production is a definite and MNH expansion is a probable.

The SP would start to climb.

random, the only difference between VAST and PREM is VAST go out there and get the cash to develop their assets.

The reality is PREM need similar funding to VAST in order to build a similar market cap to VAST as right now PREM have only funded wages for years.

wolf, i completely agree that state bridge capital and their clients will continue to fund them.

i am not here to bash PREM and say its all over, its bust, far from it.

The trouble is PREM only has Manganese in production and only has a small stake and it needs funding to reduce production bottlenecks/cash for expansion.

GR can bob and weave and tell us RHA 2021 is up and running but the reality thus far is he hasn't even paid for the reports the offtaker wants and its December 2020.

Wolf, PREM needs income and the reality is GR needs to pump cash into RHA and MNH to drive that income.

Once he does that at least any profits will slow the dilution needed for all of the other projects.

All any shareholder or potential investor can see right now is PREM lacks cash and it should be apparent any Circum money will be needed to develop all these projects to production.

What's the point of paying Circum cash out when it could be used for getting Gold to JORC?
or used to reduce ZULU costs to getting into production post DFS?
or used to forward those Katate rare earth minerals?

wolf, GR stepping aside would double the SP overnight as with all the will in the world he can't be trusted to boil a kettle.

wolf, yes the RTO 15bn shares is on a complete buy out of MNH.

Obviously, he may buy MNH stakes in smaller tranches but has indicated he wants to RTO MNH and also indicated MNH needs cash for expansion. To do both that's a doubling of existing shares.

People like tubbs reading the GR storyline of Circum will give shareholders dividend money but does this work into reality?

Circum will only IPO when Potash prices have recovered and the war in Ethiopia now turning into a Guerilla war with Eritrea (according to US) helping out is over.

PREM will need $3-5m for RHA/MNH/Gold and $5m to ZULU DFS (if they fail to find a JV partner).

PREM will then need more cash to further the Gold asset to JORC reserves that's another $5m approx.

Then they will need cash for open pit mining the gold.

Now obviously ZULU may get a JV partner to DFS paying for it but we have to assume risk it may not pay off as its Zimbabwe.

PREM wont need all the above money at once but PREM needs cash to develop its assets like all exploration mining companies.

To say there isn't going to be any further dilution is fallacy especially with him looking at other assets to buy/develop, specifically gold and diamonds.

I see no chance of Circum IPO soon and even when it does PREM will need the cash otherwise he is diluting shares.

US stories about not having enough Pfizer vials etc and most vaccinated US summer 2021 onwards is knocking everything.

PREM is a mining development exploration company that should be spending $5m+ a year on developments.
if he sits on his hands does nothing PREM still spend $2m a year on wages/consultants.

The reality is for PREM to develop/wages to run it as a legitimate mining exploration company you're looking at $7m+ a year needed for exploration/wages.

Every AIM company has to go through this dilution process just GR bumbles and PREM end up in a worse state because of no assigned exploration program.

The Gold for example while not being the best grades ever if he had announced a survey right after leading to drilling programs all the AIM gold bugs would have jumped in just on the drilling result gamble.

1g/t grade gold is not the best but its ok for Open Mining 8g/t for Underground he needed to move the Gold project along providing newsflow on Aerial studies.

Then produce us all a 3D model in a presentation to show us all where they expect the gold seams to be with criteria of where they were drilling. That 3D model alone if anticipated to be good would drive the SP higher.

Cherryburn on here will remember Sula Iron and Gold with Roger Murphy coming in bleating gold everywhere.
Sula doing this aerial study/3 stage drilling program moved that SP from 0.1 to 0.6 before huge sell off on dissapointing grades. Even so Sula got placing money as the went through the program.

With a gold program PREMs SP could have hit 0.10 just on the buzz with GR able to place for more cash near the 0.10 amount not needing it at 0.04.

the lockdown forces didnt trash oil demand like earlier in the year.

oil supplies in the middle east are tight and will remain tight going into Q1 where despite lockdowns there will be a drawdown in that part of the world.

oil demand will rise 2021 the question is how much the answer will be in OPECs hands but they will not outproduce to see oil prices slide again. US shale is also recovering slower than expected with rigs.

All OPEC Countries carry a lot of 2020 debt which they simply cannot repeat in 2021 and why Iraq are screaming to offload more oil because they're financially ****ed at $49 to offload a low quota.

Even though Iraq will slide in and out of quotas the market right now is looking to what forward demand is and its that anticipated demand recovery that is fuelling oil prices higher.

If you were to take a 3 month view on oil you would be thinking the start of returning to normal conditions around that time. Older people who get the jab first will be scouting for a winter holiday by February.

The question is how quickly demand will take to recover most analysts predicting summer/late summer but even if recovery wasn't till 2022 OPEC+ will limit supply until the time demand recovers.

random, i bet you a Consolidation with an EGM to keep the issuable share capital as it is will happen.

PREM has no cash, he wants more of MNH which also has no cash to develop and which he has states needs expansion money.

if MNH eventually RTO into PREM as GR wishes that's 15bn+ of more shares.

PREM shareholders are in the same position as earlier this year accept some issuing share cap raise or go bust, that's the sad reality.

GR is also pursuing other acreage with regard to Gold and as he alluded to earlier this year Diamonds he is going to have to issue more shares.

As well as find funding for wages and whatever funds he needs to develop projects.

RHA will need quite a bit of cash to offtakers specs at least $100000 just for industry reports etc.
Gold would need $1m to develop with aerial metalurgical studies and 2 stage drilling program.
MNH a lot of money surely post $1m to reduce all production bottlenecks with cash for further expansion.

PREM are spending too much on wages and an army of consultants that was without the new Financial Consultants.