Member Info for mattwales

Markets in reaction to FED ending QE program + Evergreen and other property co busts in China.

Flight to safety out of riskier assets.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/13/meme-stocks-amc-and-gamestop-tumble-to-lowest-levels-in-months-as-investors-take-off-risk.html

USA is key they are still getting hit with Delta. Places like Minnesota at maximum in emergency wards. If that extends to NY and LA then the markets will tank.

If Atlas who had faith to invest are scrambling to get out by forward selling then converting it shows the picture has changed here.

VAST will need vast sums of money just to offset losses nevermind the costs of exploring what else is in BP to keep it in production beyond its lifespan.

That's probably why Atlas are converting when there is some sort of liquidity in the market i.e. they wont convert all at once but you can see they are on the de-risk and exit path and who can blame them they are pretty exposed.

covid cases have almost doubled in the USA and almost trebled here over past couple of weeks.

its one thing stopping me investing across leisure/travel.

im hoping for everyones sake we dont have a third wave and everything gets back to normal asap.

incredibly you can choose seats next to everyone else but its more upbeat than it was this time last year.

then u'd have 2 or 3 people booking and why they closed.

my closest cinema chester from 20-50%

obviously it wont include passing trade but most people without a cineworld card book online as its cheaper and most people with the card would choose their seats before thinking of going.

shows u seats available for each movie Leicester square for movies this evening from 10%- half full.

covid 19 cases rising in USA again

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/20/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

similar story past week in UK cases are higher than last week

usa advising against travel to 80% of countries

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56813852

covid 19 cases rising in USA again

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/20/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

similar story past week in UK cases are higher than last week

usa advising against travel to 80% of countries

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56813852

covid 19 cases rising in USA again

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/20/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

similar story past week in UK cases are higher than last week

covid 19 cases rising in USA again

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/20/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

similar story past week in UK cases are higher than last week

I agree Tony I am now fully out here. Right now it doesn't matter about any fundamentals about the Oil price. .

Short term there is too much uncertainty and with major newspapers mentioning debt for equity swap its about cash preservation just in case of a wipeout similar to what happened to PMO.

Plus the shorters are fully back in control and could knock this back to 14p again.

they sailed through RBL redetermination at $25/$30 a barrel so how bankers will pull the plug at $56 is nonsense.

Given every producer is holding off and will be holding off Capital Investment until Covid is over were going to see the biggest supply shock in Oil in decades (if not ever).

Forecasts are 2.1 million barrels a day short for lack of investment in 2020 by 2025 and up to up to 9 million barrels a day short by 2025 if investment stays the same. It wont but 2021 and possibly 2022 is another write off in capital expenditure.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Pandemic-Could-Lead-To-A-Major-Oil-Supply-Crunch.html

Oil could seriously hit $150 again.

$200 million cash flow expected at circa 63000 barrels at $50 per barrel.

Brent is at $56.35 currently meaning a lot more cash flow.

At some point the company will up their expected average oil price and their expected cashflow.

more like MMs taking out stop losses before moving it up.

The company have uplifted their oil price target from $45 to $50 since Capital markets day.

The RBL delay is a stalling tactic by the company so they can turn round to their bankers and say we expect $55 or so IMHO.

alternatively the rollout of vaccines which is increasing week on week will increase economic activity and travel.

the trading statement will be from 1st july to 31st december 2020.

although we should get guidance on production, net debt, anymore hedging and a guidance for 2021.

China has a very partial localised lockdown in just one province.

Saudi Arabia withdrawing 1m barrels of oil a day Feb/March and other OPEC+ members having to idecrease their quota because of months of not hitting OPEC quota targets should increase both Brent and WTI.

it' ll be bought on any dip anyway and looks heavily undervalued.

Compare it to USA Kosmos Energy who are also Ghana based, similar debt and producing 60100 barrels a day and its valued at £783m