Member Info for mattwales

based on 70k production (not sure its fallen just yet below that) they'll be making circa $35m profit a month at these prices.

look its just like the last RBL. Tullow have voluntary meetings with its lenders and are working on reducing the RBL over time and have actually reduced this facility this past year.

If there were problems with the lenders do you not think they'd have demanded a rights issue earlier in the year with oil at $20-$30 and Tullow making a loss then?

Tullow oil are sitting pretty they just received $500m cash and all year have been cutting overall costs to roughly $35 a barrel.

Oil is now $48 a barrel with 60% of their production still hedged at $57.

Tullow have $1bn of liquidity which I am sure they will look to voluntarily cut again come January as they're cashflow positive at $35 Brent.

the figures in the CMD were ultra conservative Brent average $45 for 2021 when the Brent spot price just hit $49.

bank of america WTI target $60 by summer 2021 that's $63-$65 Brent.

I'm thinking £1 next year not 2022.

happy was knocking it at 17p i think he forgot to close his short

lol Brent will be $50+ next week

and getting them out of the way which will obviously reduce costs massively going into 2022.

Then focusing 80% of spending on existing assets to increase production.

Les slipping RBL redetermination for Jan has been approved.

they stated strategy is to develop the oil fields they already have for up to 80% of capital spending.

That means they are looking to increase Production.

They are drilling Guyana 2021.

well they increased uptime from 91-98%.

They reduced Jubilee costs 23% with a further decrease in costs of 10% pencilled in for 2021

They generated 60% more gas.

They have targeted future drilling costs looking to reduce them 20%

Operating costs will be lower in 2021 than 2020 whats not to like.

Ghana uptime efficiency up to 98% from 91%.
Gas extraction to rise 8 fold by 2024.
Jubilee Costs fallen from $12.7 to forecast $9.9 2020 and $9 2021

you cant say they dont know what they're doing and all in a short time of taking over last management.

China bought billions worth of oil stockpiled.

However, all those billions of oil vanished september/october time from both floating storage and onshore storage.

China now has to refill it all and buying so much middle east supplies are tight.

if OPEC delay to virus rollout we could gap up to $60 brent sharpish as traders/hedge funds/fund managers scramble for barrels of oil. Q1 with OPEC delaying supply = huge shortage any excess crude will dissapear.

actually i take that back the are hedged 60% production i forgot and its 5.30am.

they'll be getting $2 a barrel extra x 40% of their production which works out around $23m extra per day.

the company will be getting around $57m more cash per day than they would have just friday.

Brent has broken out beyond its trading range and Tullow stays static.

$50 may come next week due to OPEC meeting.

my personal feeling 70p within 6 months....the oil price is lower than normal and should recover to $60 within 6 months.

no Brent is up 24% in less than a month due to virus immunisation news/rollouts.

the oil price isnt frothy its just in the process of normalising back to $60/$70. Tullow to benefit greatly from rising Brent.

why on earth would a company who just got $500m cash in the bank raise $500m when they can safely wait till oil is at $60-$70 sometime in the next year and not have to raise at all?

the good news is they will be rolling out vaccines from December concentrating on the retired.

Most hating winter will be looking to fly somewhere warmer ASAP.

if OPEC+ delay supply for 3 months the demand for flying etc will impact straightaway as the virus vaccinations rollout from early/mid December.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/23/us-germany-and-uk-could-start-covid-vaccinations-as-early-as-december